01:44.4
Many things to catch up on.
01:46.0
Of course, I hope folks napanood nyo yung mga review natin ng GOMBURZA the other day and please if you didn't have a chance to check it, go and check it out on our different platforms.
01:59.6
So, that's it for this episode of GOMBURZA the other day and please if you didn't have a chance to check it out on our different platforms, go and check it out on our different platforms.
02:29.6
So, that's it for this episode of GOMBURZA the other day and please if you didn't have a chance to check it out on our different platforms.
02:30.9
Very close to Taiwan.
02:33.8
Pagdating dun sa mga strategic calculus ng Pilipinas.
02:37.4
So, kung ano mangyayari sa Taiwan in one way or another, it is going to happen.
02:52.7
So, kung ano mangyayari sa Taiwan in one way or another, it is going to happen.
02:52.9
So, kung ano mangyayari sa Taiwan in one way or another, it is going to happen.
02:59.6
So, in short, hindi natin mahiwalay ang nangyayari sa Taiwan dun sa mga nangyayari sa pagitan ng Pilipinas, China, at Amerika.
03:13.2
All of these are very much related and related.
03:29.6
At hindi natin mahiwalay ang nangyayari sa Taiwan dun sa mga nangyayari sa pagitan ng Pilipinas.
03:44.1
So, kung ano mangyayari sa Taiwan in one way or another, it is going to happen.
03:45.5
So, kung ano mangyayari sa Taiwan in one way or another, it is going to happen.
03:45.6
So, kung ano mangyayari sa Taiwan in one way or another, it is going to happen.
03:45.7
So, kung ano mangyayari sa Taiwan in one way or another, it is going to happen.
03:50.0
So, you can check it out on our other platforms, on our YouTube channels.
03:50.1
So, you can check it out on our other platforms, on our Instagram.
03:50.2
Kung ano mangyayari sa Taiwan in one way or another, it is going to happen.
03:51.0
Kung ano mangyayari sa Taiwan in one way or another, it is going to happen.
03:53.8
OEWs, ang ating mga kababayan.
03:57.5
But whether we like it or not,
04:00.8
that's not, unfortunately,
04:04.3
that's not going to be the only concern.
04:06.6
But, concern din ang
04:08.3
Pilipinas when it comes to things that are
04:10.5
of all Asian countries, perhaps of all countries
04:14.4
in the world. Siguro ang Pilipinas ay nasa
04:24.6
Please pay attention to what's
04:27.8
happening in Taiwan. And then on side note,
04:30.1
not to trivialize the situation, of course
04:31.9
yung mga kababayan natin na hindi pa nakapunta sa
04:33.8
Taiwan. Ang davang kakilala mga Pilipino
04:35.8
na nakapunta sa kung saan
04:38.1
saan, you know, corner
04:39.8
of the world, pero hindi nakapunta sa Taiwan.
04:41.6
Napakalapit sa atin.
04:43.5
Well, I love the culture.
04:51.7
away from Manila to Taipei
04:53.5
and from in the north to
04:55.5
I don't have 20 minutes
04:57.9
with flight. So, napakalapit
05:01.7
geography is geopolitics.
05:04.2
So, pag-usapan lahat natin
05:06.0
mga yan. But before
05:09.2
Philippines, ating national security,
05:12.2
ETCA, Philippine-China-US
05:15.3
go to Taiwan to begin with
05:17.6
para makakatch up tayo ng konti.
05:19.8
Obviously, you're free to check my
05:21.6
writings, including upcoming
05:26.4
implications, ipopost natin yan. Actually, if you just
05:35.6
I will post to you, ipo-forward ko rin
05:38.4
kung may mga bagong articles tayo.
05:40.4
But in the meantime, let me just give you an overview
05:48.0
May mga tiktokers na
05:51.6
Ayan, mga pulvoronik.
05:54.3
Ayan, okay. O yung mga kinatamad,
05:56.2
pulvoronik. Ayan, makinig na lang kayo dito.
05:58.4
Bibigyan natin ng crash course. And of course,
06:00.3
by the way, congratulations
06:02.4
sa ating mga madridistas.
06:04.6
Ayan, nanalo tayo ng
06:08.4
sa Barcelona. Of course, I have
06:10.3
nothing against Barcelona, but, you know,
06:12.6
hard na tayo. Very
06:16.0
madridista po tayo. So, congratulations.
06:21.6
William Lai Administration.
06:36.4
Pag-usapan natin yan. So, eto,
06:37.8
these are the numbers. So,
06:40.5
the race, actually,
06:44.9
few months ago, and I remember
06:47.1
actually, iba sa inyo,
06:49.1
you were able to watch live.
06:51.6
Pa-pasok si William Lai
06:53.7
dun sa event namin sa
06:58.1
on my pages, no? Especially sa
07:01.4
Facebook natin, si William Lai
07:03.5
coming in. I found him very
07:05.4
relaxed. I found him very self-assured and
07:07.4
self-confident. Definitely
07:17.5
just hope for responsible
07:19.2
statesmanship and for continuing
07:21.5
the good legacy of the outgoing
07:23.1
Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen. Because, in
07:25.3
fairness to President Tsai Ing-wen,
07:27.4
I know marami siyang critics inside Taipei.
07:29.8
Marami siyang critics inside Taipei.
07:32.2
But, I think, overall,
07:33.5
she was able to prevent any major
07:35.4
diplomatic taxes with China.
07:37.8
The only major event that happened
07:39.5
during Tsai Ing-wen administration
07:41.0
hindi ito masalanan sa Tsai Ing-wen.
07:43.4
Kasi, alam ko, naman, may kato.
07:45.1
Or, kasalanan, hindi naman, hindi naman, hindi naman, hindi naman, hindi naman.
07:47.4
This was the former
07:49.0
Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi's,
07:53.0
I'm not sure how much that was
07:58.2
Some are saying that
07:59.4
was more sariling sikap
08:05.5
That's what experts call it.
08:21.5
video natin, analysis natin, is actually
08:23.5
in the Taiwan crisis
08:24.4
noong August 2022.
08:27.8
Close to half a million views.
08:29.1
So, I'm glad that there's a lot of interest.
08:31.6
I'm glad that there's a lot of interest
08:33.3
pagdating sa developments
08:39.8
Which, of course, yun na natin na
08:41.5
medyo binash natin ng konti
08:43.0
the other month. Kasi sabi ko,
08:45.6
parang yung mga pinapost ko sa
08:47.3
West Philippines, parang ano.
08:49.0
Anyway, mga pang-usapan yun,
08:51.5
hindi ka natin itong TikTok live
08:57.6
mga ibang followers
09:01.3
finance version of this.
09:03.8
So, if you look at it,
09:08.6
sa Philippines was supposed to look like.
09:14.9
Which was like a two-party system
09:16.5
or dominant two-party system.
09:20.1
For the first time in the very
09:21.4
long time, actually, the third party,
09:29.1
Very, very well. It won close to
09:33.0
equal to 26.46% of the votes.
09:36.2
The Kuomintang Party,
09:37.5
which used to be the dominant party
09:39.3
for almost, what, half a century,
09:41.6
and then still managed to win elections
09:43.3
during democratic elections.
09:44.5
So, actually, I had the chance
09:51.4
They managed to win
09:54.5
4 million and 671,000 votes.
09:58.7
So, that's equal to
10:01.4
So, put together, if you look at the
10:05.3
GoMing, that's more or less
10:06.9
60% of the votes.
10:13.2
that provided the opening
10:16.5
race together with
10:21.4
So, just over 40%, 40.05%,
10:24.5
and close to 6 million votes.
10:27.0
Now, this is lower
10:30.8
votes that Tsai Ing-wen
10:32.8
won in the previous
10:34.9
elections in 2020.
10:36.7
Significant lower, but because it was a
10:42.6
pretty comfortable lead. Because if you look at the lead
10:44.9
between number one and number two, that's
10:46.7
the TPP and the Kuomintang Party,
10:48.8
that's a huge lead.
11:01.5
Now, there were concerns that the race was closing
11:03.6
because, as I said, I remember when in
11:06.1
in Taiwan and listening to
11:09.2
William Lai, he had
11:10.8
the race began to
11:13.2
final result, it was a comfortable
11:17.6
win. But, as I already
11:19.4
mentioned a while ago, if
11:53.0
then they would have been a DPP party.
11:55.5
Right? Even if maybe a party
11:56.8
was able to secure
11:58.6
a significant plurality of the votes
12:00.8
at around 40% or so.
12:03.7
The overall voting turnout
12:04.7
was around 72%, so that's
12:06.9
3% lower than the previous
12:09.9
it's not a published democracy.
12:12.4
So that's quite interesting
12:13.4
if you look at that. Now, dun sa parliamentary
12:16.7
race, if you look at the
12:34.8
by one because the Kuomintang
12:36.5
won 52 seats, but
12:38.4
neither of them have a majority.
12:41.7
the legislature of Taiwan
12:46.2
is still up for grabs
12:50.3
party actually won 8 seats
12:52.2
and if not a second, the independents
12:53.9
have 2 seats. So around 10 seats
12:57.8
who will control.
13:02.1
necessarily 100% sure that
13:04.0
the opposition will control the legislature.
13:06.5
So there's still some slight chance
13:08.1
that the DPP party will hold on
13:10.3
to both the legislature
13:11.4
and the executive order. I'd rather not
13:20.3
Kasi ahoy people want it
13:24.7
who are robbing the DPP party?
13:27.1
I'm not sure they want
13:28.5
to think aboutistolize
13:30.0
the DPP party but
13:33.6
it's the other party
13:35.6
that will hold itself
13:36.7
and I think they should
13:38.0
be the people who
13:40.1
they're not alone
13:47.8
they're political Channel,
13:48.8
then they'll decide
13:49.8
more pro-independence
13:52.5
than the other party, especially
13:56.0
even the DPP is making sure
13:58.0
that they don't openly provoke China
14:05.9
western locations. They look at how
14:11.9
moves towards something more
14:16.4
it looks like none of the threats by China
14:18.2
really work. In fact,
14:22.0
military exercises around Taiwan
14:25.5
after the Nancy Pelosi visit.
14:28.3
Also, there were concerns
14:57.1
back during the Civil War years.
14:59.1
There has been fears that China
15:01.2
will be able to find elections, sabotage
15:09.5
But none of that happened.
15:11.3
None of that actually happened.
15:12.9
What happened eventually was
15:30.7
I have to do this part
15:32.3
because before we go to the broader regional implications,
15:36.6
we have to look at what happened inside Taiwan first.
15:40.5
Okay, so if you look at it,
15:41.5
this is an interesting survey by National Changsha University,
15:44.2
which actually I used to be
15:45.4
based there as a visiting scholar.
15:47.8
So, if you look at this survey,
15:49.5
it's very interesting now as you know of course uh taiwan is technically called republic of china
15:55.5
they consider themselves as the true heir of what sunyatsen
15:59.4
began uh more than 100 years ago and in taiwan
16:07.0
background a lot of them well huge number of them speak mandarin or chinese a lot of them
16:11.8
also speak japanese by the way history which was not as bad as what we had in the case of
16:17.6
the philippines if you look at it if this is a survey and halos
16:25.5
i mean it's vast majority of taiwanese sorry over time more and more taiwanese from 92
16:33.1
all the way to 2023 end of 2023 you if you look at the green uh arrow there you could see
16:41.9
so from just uh around 20 percent of taiwanese now close to 70 percent of taiwanese
16:47.6
consider themselves as primarily taiwanese right so they see themselves as belonging to
16:54.3
a de facto separate nation consider themselves as only chinese has significantly reduced over time
17:03.4
and then those who see themselves as both chinese and taiwanese uh it's also on a steady secular
17:09.5
decline so the taiwanese sense of identity has significantly significantly increased
17:15.8
and that's why actually
17:47.6
Is it the regime that has came to Taiwan and eventually created the foundations of what we call the Interpol of China or is it the regime in Beijing?
17:59.5
Some of them agree that there is one modern China but they don't agree on whom should sovereignty lie.
18:06.8
But the reality is that both Taiwan and China are moving in a much more confrontational direction
18:12.1
because Taiwanese are feeling less and less attached to China and they're feeling more and more de facto independent
18:19.4
although they're not moving yet towards a declaration of independence that no one wants to build China.
18:26.3
At the same time, in China, more...
18:42.1
or New Year speech ni Xi Jinping on Taiwan, he effectively said that all options are still on the table, you know?
18:51.8
That as President Xi Jinping or paramount leader Xi Jinping said, Taiwan and China will surely be unified, right?
19:00.4
Doon sa kanyang New Year's Eve speech.
19:03.2
So Beijing is implying... well, not implying.
19:06.7
They're accusing Taiwan of moving towards de facto independence
19:10.3
and they're accusing them of being...
19:12.1
as in, provocateurs.
19:13.8
But for Taiwanese, not only do they feel more Taiwanese,
19:17.0
but they also feel that they're being more bullied.
19:25.1
To assert the Chinese position, right?
19:32.5
Ang pagsabay nito yung Taiwan, ang pagsabay nito yung Amerika,
19:35.5
at pagsabay nito yung mga ibongkla ng Pilipinas.
19:40.1
kayo nagtitrigger, no?
19:43.3
At kayo nag-othermind the so-called one-china policy.
19:46.3
We are also holding on.
19:49.1
Now, interestingly, if you look at it,
19:52.4
this is very interesting.
19:54.5
So the pressure on Xi Jinping to also be tougher in the...
20:10.1
Even though he doesn't want war, right?
20:14.5
Because he also cannot afford war.
20:16.0
Ayaw nyo naman, it will be devastating also for China.
20:18.3
If you look at the war scenario.
20:20.7
At the same time, sa Taiwan, ayaw nyo nililin na ng giyera, right?
20:25.1
Because alam nyo...
20:40.1
So, we have a deadlock.
21:07.9
So, what do you expect to happen...
21:13.0
weeks and months?
21:18.5
I'm threatening...
21:27.4
I'm doing nothing crazy.
21:29.6
the incoming president also of Taiwan
21:31.3
is going to call...
21:34.2
I'm going to try to maintain relations with Taiwan.
21:36.6
At the same time, my redline is sidelined.
21:38.2
We're not going to undermine...
21:40.1
So, it's a very tricky situation.
21:47.1
But I think, as that
21:49.8
China is going to tighten the rules.
21:52.0
More sanctions on Taiwan.
21:53.9
Especially exports galing dun sa
21:56.1
many areas. So, support the
21:57.4
DPP party to indirectly
21:59.8
support the opposition party, perhaps,
22:02.3
right? Or at least undermine the ruling party.
22:04.9
Hindi ako magtatagal if China
22:06.2
will also push with more military
22:08.0
activities around Taiwan.
22:19.0
Ang tanong dyan is,
22:20.1
what is going to break the deadlock?
22:22.0
And I think that's where everyone is
22:32.2
It's doing something pasaway
22:33.8
and undermining their position. And at the same
22:36.1
time, neither Xi Jinping nor Lai
22:37.9
are in a position to lose face because each of
22:40.1
them are accountable to their domestic
22:41.5
constituencies, who is pushing more
22:43.9
and more for a, well, at least in the case
22:46.0
of China, a more maximalist position.
22:48.7
by some friends and colleagues in Singapore
22:51.9
that shows that actually a lot of middle-class
22:54.1
Chinese want a more aggressive
22:58.0
President Xi is also under pressure
23:00.9
In the case of President Lai,
23:03.9
although the Taiwanese people
23:08.2
reunification. So,
23:10.1
diba, sino mag-adjust?
23:12.9
Diba? Yun ang essential
23:13.7
problema natin. Sino mag-adjust
23:16.0
ngayon? At habang
23:17.5
both sides are unlikely
23:20.1
to adjust, then we're gonna
23:21.9
have to be, we're gonna be in a tricky situation.
23:24.0
Wait lang. Tanong galing ko lang ito.
23:26.3
So, since both sides don't
23:28.0
wanna adjust, we're gonna be in a tricky
23:29.8
situation. I think, sorry doon sa audio
23:31.9
kasi inawakan ko ito. I think that's disrupting
23:33.8
the audio here. Okay. Now, let's
23:35.8
get back to this.
23:40.1
So, what does this
23:42.7
mean for the Philippines? What does this
23:44.6
mean for the Philippines? Diba? So, again,
23:46.6
to summarize, no, sorry, doon sa mga medyo nakat
23:48.7
ng connections and all.
23:50.7
Let me just summarize this once
23:58.0
Parang ginawa natin classroom.
23:59.6
I-summarize natin ulit yan na. Okay.
24:01.3
I-summarize ulit natin yan. So, this is the
24:03.5
dangerous deadlock that we're seeing right now
24:05.5
in the cross-strait relations.
24:07.6
On one hand, nagsaslow down yung economy
24:11.7
hand, since na-consolidate
24:13.9
ng power si paramount leader
24:15.7
President Xi Jinping, Chairman Xi Jinping,
24:19.8
is on him to assert
24:21.5
yung strong position of China na dapat
24:23.7
mag-reunify sila with Taiwan
24:25.5
in the near future while he's still in power.
24:28.1
At the same time, President Xi Jinping
24:29.6
doesn't want conflict because he knows that the conflict will
24:31.7
be devastating for the Chinese economy or
24:33.6
even worse because it's gonna potentially draw in
24:35.7
other countries like United States, Japan,
24:37.4
and also potentially the Philippines, no?
24:40.0
And Taiwan is gonna put a very good fight
24:41.8
and Taiwan is way more well-armed
24:44.2
and way more defensible
24:45.8
than Ukraine when Ukraine was
24:48.0
invaded by Russia, right? Taiwan is an
24:50.0
island, Ukraine was just next to Belarus
24:51.9
and Russia, and Taiwan is a developed
24:53.9
country with a very advanced
24:55.6
military-industrial complex compared to what Ukraine
24:58.0
was when it was first invaded
24:59.2
in February of last year.
25:01.6
At the same time, if you look at the situation in
25:03.9
Taiwan, President Lai,
25:06.1
who belongs to the DPP party, is not
25:08.0
gonna push for something provocative like a referendum
25:10.0
on independence of Taiwan, but at the same time,
25:12.6
he understands that vast majority of Taiwanese,
25:15.6
close to 70%, feel as solely Taiwanese, right?
25:19.7
And that strong sense of Taiwanese-ness, right,
25:22.7
means that talks of reunification with China is a
25:27.2
In fact, during the elections, even the more
25:29.5
pro-Beijing elements had to kind of tone down any
25:32.3
discussions of reunifications.
25:33.7
When former President Ma Ying-jeou of KMT tried to
25:36.0
talk about reunification, et cetera, he was somehow snubbed
25:39.5
by his own people.
25:40.0
So, in that situation, sin na mag-adjust, right?
25:45.0
So, both sides don't want conflict.
25:47.0
Both countries have been grappling with some sort of
25:49.5
economic slowdown and growing disaffection of their
25:52.5
So, both youth in Taiwan and youth in China are facing,
25:55.4
you know, growing unemployment and economic uncertainty.
25:58.4
At the same time, both sides cannot lose face.
26:01.6
And both sides have positions that are increasingly
26:05.1
So, we're in this very, very dangerous deadlock.
26:07.4
And honestly, I don't know what it takes.
26:10.0
For things to move in the right direction.
26:12.5
I think the best thing we can hope is that in the
26:14.8
coming months and all, whatever China does, Taiwan
26:17.7
will continue to take a responsible statesman-like
26:20.4
position, not to say anything provocative, be very
26:22.9
careful about its positioning, and hopefully, also
26:25.2
on the part of China, they're going to be a responsible
26:26.8
great power and realize that they cannot bludgeon Taiwan
26:31.1
And the strength of this Taiwanese identity is just
26:33.7
too strong for any Taiwanese leader, even from a
26:36.5
KMT party, to talk about unity at this point in time,
26:38.9
reunification at this point in time.
26:40.4
So, it's about keeping things on an even keel, and
26:43.0
then, siguro, slowly rebuilding yung mga freight cross-straits
26:47.1
communication channels, which were severed around eight
26:49.9
years ago when Tsai Ing-wen first won.
26:52.4
So, we really need strong statements on both sides, just
26:55.4
when there's pressure on both Lai and Xi Jinping to stay
26:58.8
But gladly, both are also playing relatively weaker cards
27:02.7
because of the economic problems at home.
27:04.5
And in case of Lai, also divided government that he may
27:07.0
potentially face if he doesn't build a major coalition.
27:10.0
So, ito po yung situation ngayon, right?
27:13.5
When it comes to Taiwan-China relations and the
27:17.8
implications for the region.
27:18.9
Now, we can have a whole conversation about the U.S.
27:21.9
aspect, but let me first talk about the Philippines, right?
27:25.7
Pag-usapan natin ng Pilipinas, because pag tinignan mo
27:28.7
ang Pilipinas, ang laki ng stake natin sa nangyayari
27:32.0
ngayon sa Taipei, right?
27:35.0
We have a very big stake in what's happening in Taipei
27:38.7
Now, because, if you look at the situation in Taipei.
27:43.7
Wait lang, na-disconnect pa tayo?
27:46.7
Ah, internet yata is.
27:50.1
Sayang naman lahat ng sinabi natin dito.
27:53.5
Sorry guys, mukhang na-disconnect yata ako dito, ah.
28:02.2
Pinaghirapan natin ito.
28:06.1
Hindi ko alam may internet problem.
28:08.7
Hindi yata kaya ng multiple platforms
28:21.2
Yeah, inayos ko na yung audio
28:22.7
yung tinanggal ko na dito.
28:23.8
One second, sorry, ah.
28:29.1
Bakit na-disconnect to?
28:47.8
Kailangan ko lang i-record yung part na yun, guys.
28:49.5
Kasi may mga maps tayo, no.
28:50.9
Sayang naman kung hindi ko ilalabas.
28:52.5
Kaya pasensya na ako.
28:53.3
Kasi para repost ko rin sa inyo later on afterwards.
29:01.7
Apologies for that.
29:08.7
Ito yung part na mahalaga kasi.
29:38.7
See, mahala, mahala, mahala.
29:51.7
Ay, pinipilit ko lahat ng platforms lang.
29:53.6
Hindi pala kaya ng internet.
29:55.3
Up to three lang yata.
29:56.3
Or dalawa lang kaya.
30:00.8
Okay, go na tayo.
30:14.7
Mukhang, guys, na-disconnect tayo kanina.
30:16.4
Ulitin natin itong part na ito
30:17.4
kasi importante yung gumagamit tayo ng mga
30:19.3
gumagamit tayo ng mga
30:21.5
graphs and tables and all of that.
30:23.1
So, just to summarize
30:24.7
what I was talking about a while ago.
30:27.9
Ang sinasabi natin is that
30:28.9
we have a dangerous deadlock right now
30:31.0
in the cross-trace relations
30:33.4
because both President Xi Jinping
30:35.0
and also President Lai
30:38.3
both of them cannot lose face.
30:40.8
When you look at the case of China
30:42.8
it has a slowing down economy
30:44.8
and now that Xi Jinping has
30:47.2
essentially fully consolidated power
30:49.8
he's gonna take a blame.
30:51.3
He's gonna be blamed for anything
30:52.4
that doesn't go right.
30:53.6
And more and more Chinese
30:54.5
especially middle-class Chinese
30:55.6
want the country to take
30:56.7
more assertive stance
30:57.7
on the international stage.
30:58.9
At kasama din dyan
30:59.8
base sa mga surveys
31:01.4
at mga pag-aaral na kita natin
31:03.7
yung idea na yung China
31:05.0
has to reunify with Taiwan
31:09.2
Kung tinignan nyo
31:10.3
yung mga speeches
31:11.3
ni President Xi Jinping
31:12.3
throughout the years
31:13.4
he has made it very clear
31:14.3
all options are on the table.
31:16.1
Now having said that
31:17.0
on the other side
31:18.1
with President Lai
31:18.8
he also recognizes
31:19.7
that the vast majority
31:21.2
have a very strong sense
31:24.1
Taiwanese identity.
31:25.4
So the idea of reunification
31:26.9
especially after what happened
31:29.4
very politically palatable.
31:31.1
of course the DPP
31:32.7
having a strong sense
31:34.1
of Taiwanese identity
31:35.7
and critics would even suggest
31:37.8
that they would be
31:38.1
perhaps they want
31:39.3
a full declaration
31:40.5
of independence for Taiwan
31:43.1
they have in mind
31:44.4
President Tsai Ing-wen
31:45.2
outgoing President Tsai Ing-wen
31:47.9
is concerned at this.
31:48.8
That's where you see
31:49.5
responsible statesmanship.
31:51.7
But the good thing is
31:52.8
I think both countries
31:54.3
because they're facing
31:56.2
a lot of domestic discontent
31:57.8
a lot of economic uncertainty
31:59.4
a lot of youth disaffection
32:02.4
and also in Taiwan
32:05.1
in the case of Taiwan
32:10.4
will be controlled
32:12.2
So what's happening here
32:13.7
there's gonna be pressure
32:16.3
some sort of understanding.
32:18.2
Both are not gonna admit
32:20.5
will tighten the screws
32:22.5
and try to impose
32:23.8
sanctions on Taiwan
32:24.5
economic sanctions
32:25.2
do more military exercises
32:28.1
behind the scenes
32:29.1
some conversations
32:29.9
about how to make sure
32:33.4
there'll be a move
32:34.7
towards restoration
32:37.1
communication channels
32:38.1
something that happened
32:40.9
more than 8 years ago.
32:43.4
going to the Philippines
32:44.3
bakit dapat may pakit tayo
32:47.0
Bakit tayo dapat may pakit
32:50.3
if you look at Taipei
32:51.9
disconnect na naman.
32:54.8
naka-on ba yung TV doon?
32:58.0
It keeps on disconnecting.
33:06.1
nagdi-disconnect to.
33:08.1
Ang mayroon tayo,
33:09.2
mga ka-fans kita,
33:38.0
At the last na ito
33:42.2
Hopefully this one will work
34:03.4
Huwag kayong drama
34:06.8
May on kasi na TV doon
34:09.2
Let's go now to the Philippines part
34:12.5
May pakit tayo sa Pilipinas
34:14.8
Pangyayari dyan sa Taiwan
34:18.1
Geography is a big explanation
34:19.8
And geopolitics accordingly
34:21.7
Katulad ng mga vlogs natin before
34:23.9
Pinag-usapan natin na
34:25.9
Whatever happens in Taiwan
34:27.4
Will have direct implications
34:28.4
On the Philippines
34:36.0
It's very very close
34:37.6
Manila is closer to Taipei
34:39.1
Than almost all major
34:42.7
Vietnam is more than
34:44.6
Singapore and Kuala Lumpur
34:47.7
Jakarta is almost
34:52.0
Two or three hours away
34:53.2
So I can go on and on and on
34:54.4
Mas malapit pa sa atin
34:55.9
And definitely mas malapit sa atin
35:01.3
The thing with the Philippines
35:02.7
The seat of power
35:03.7
Is actually here in Luzon
35:05.4
And if you're going to go to
35:06.0
Luzon's proximity to Taiwan
35:07.8
Then the geography
35:11.5
Now let me also give you
35:13.8
Ano implication ito
35:15.6
For Philippine-China relations
35:17.3
And also Philippine-US relations
35:18.9
Pag tinignan mo yung
35:21.3
So ito yung mga ETCA basis
35:22.7
Karamihan yung mga bagong basis
35:25.2
Na binigayin natin
35:26.9
Sa ilalim na ETCA
35:30.0
The Americans will have
35:31.8
Based on the ETCA
35:34.9
Northern parts of the Philippines
35:42.1
And if you look at
35:43.6
It's super close to Taipei
35:45.4
Super close to Taipei
35:49.9
So if you look at
35:57.6
Meron tayong actually
35:59.2
Sobrang close siya
36:03.7
Over the past year or so
36:06.0
Atin yung ating mga
36:06.7
Military facilities
36:09.0
So this is a picture of
36:11.7
Actually a ceremony
36:12.4
We had in Mavulis
36:15.8
This is where you can see
36:17.2
What happens in Taiwan
36:19.8
Has direct implications
36:20.7
For the Philippines
36:22.0
Pag magulo sa Taiwan
36:24.5
Or kung tingin natin
36:26.2
Na pwede magkaroon ng
36:27.5
Giyera over Taiwan
36:30.0
Either Taiwan or China
36:32.8
Are moving towards
36:37.0
Doon sa ating mga
36:43.0
Also the West Philippine Sea
36:44.5
Pag ikaw ang China
36:45.9
Hindi mo siniseparate
36:49.0
Sa West Philippine Sea
36:51.8
Lahat yan kasama sa isang
36:52.9
Theater sa kanila yan
36:54.3
All of these are part of
36:55.2
China's so-called
36:57.0
First Island Chain
37:04.7
Down to South China Sea
37:05.7
West Philippine Sea
37:07.0
Theater yan for China
37:08.9
When ang Pilipinas
37:11.5
Access to America
37:20.1
Pag tinigdan natin
37:25.5
And all the way down
37:27.1
In Bautista Air Base
37:31.4
Kung ikaw ang China
37:32.3
Maging worried ka talaga
37:35.7
Isa sa mga dahilan
37:36.8
Na napaka-agresibo
37:37.9
Ang China sa Pilipinas
37:38.9
Over the past few months
37:40.8
Na na-water cannon tayo
37:43.8
Na tinitreten tayo
37:45.0
Ng military intervention
37:47.6
Ng ating facilities
37:49.0
Second time action
37:49.9
Kasi kung titignan mo
37:53.6
Ang tagal na yan eh
37:58.4
Nag-iingay ng China
38:02.5
At kung titignan mo
38:05.7
2014 pa na-negotiate
38:08.2
Sila nag-iingay ng
38:13.0
Taiwan aspect dyan
38:14.6
Taiwan aspect dyan
38:15.5
Kasi sa aking palagay
38:18.9
Ang gagawin ng Pilipinas
38:21.3
Ang gagawin ni BBM
38:30.8
Pagdating sa Amerika
38:32.1
Ang justification nila dito is
38:33.9
Kung malakas tayo
38:36.4
Yung mga cooperation natin
38:39.0
Yung presence natin
38:42.4
Then magdadalawang isip
38:46.0
Ang tawag po dyan
38:48.7
Kaya nga the Roman saying
38:49.7
If you want peace
38:52.6
Pagkarap mo isang bully
38:55.1
Or hindi ka lalaban
38:55.8
Lalo ka na bubulin
38:57.5
Pero kung alam niya na
38:58.8
Pwede kang lumaban
39:01.6
Pwede kang lumaban
39:04.4
Hurt back sa kanya
39:05.7
Yung tinatawag na
39:08.4
Porcupine strategy
39:11.5
Mas malakas ang China
39:12.3
Pero kung alam nila
39:12.9
There will be a major cost
39:14.2
If ever they invade Taiwan
39:15.4
Hindi nila gagawin yan
39:17.3
That was exactly the problem
39:19.1
Kaya nga yung mga nagsasabi na
39:20.4
Ang Pilipinas or Taiwan
39:21.8
Magiging Ukraine 2.0
39:24.5
Or actually mga sinungaling mga to
39:25.8
At propagandistong mga to
39:30.7
Ukraine had no military alliance
39:33.2
Katulad ng Pilipinas
39:34.1
With any major power
39:36.8
It didn't even have
39:38.0
A de facto alliance
39:39.4
Or kind of a secret
39:42.5
Military cooperation
39:43.4
With any of the major powers
39:44.6
Well, behind the scenes
39:46.6
With the United States
39:47.5
And they're buying
39:49.2
From the United States
39:50.3
And the other big difference
39:51.8
Between Taiwan and Ukraine
39:53.5
Taiwan is actually where
39:54.9
The world's most important
39:56.7
Modern technology
39:60.0
Which is what runs
40:00.8
Everything that we're using
40:05.4
So the United States
40:08.7
Not being invaded
40:09.7
And definitely not being
40:11.1
Conquered by China
40:14.0
Is responsible for what?
40:15.9
More than a third
40:16.5
Of total semiconductors
40:18.1
And more than 90%
40:19.3
Of high-end semiconductors
40:21.3
Taiwan is just so important
40:23.9
The US has an interest
40:25.9
That it will not be invaded
40:31.0
Papasok ang Pilipinas
40:35.2
Military bases tayo
40:36.5
Katulad nung sinasabi kong mga bullies
40:38.1
But also lower down
40:39.9
In Cagayan, Isabela, etc
40:41.2
Ang lapit natin sa Taiwan eh
40:44.7
Or yung tinitawag natin
40:50.6
There's just no scenario
40:57.0
Ang laki ng interest
41:05.2
Either you side with China
41:06.9
With the United States
41:08.0
There's no way around it
41:10.6
The siding with China
41:13.1
The siding with China
41:16.4
Yung alliance natin
41:17.1
With the United States
41:19.7
Neutral country tayo
41:25.0
It was Sweden and Finland
41:27.7
Switzerland or something like that
41:29.7
Mahabang debate yung issue
41:35.6
Nasasabi ng Pilipinas
41:36.5
Ang maging neutral lang kami
41:37.5
Words are not gonna be enough
41:39.6
You're gonna look at actions
41:41.2
And you're gonna look at
41:44.5
Actions are concerned
41:46.0
Ang tinitignan ng China
41:48.9
Binibigyan natin ng
41:55.0
Super north of Philippines
41:56.7
Mavulis for instance
41:58.2
Very north na close to Taiwan
42:01.6
May operational implications
42:02.7
So kung ikaw ang China
42:03.9
Gustong sumugot sa Taipei
42:11.1
Because napakalapit
42:12.4
Ang Ryokyo Islands
42:15.1
Sa north of Taiwan
42:16.0
And then alam din niya
42:17.9
Na katulad ng Japan
42:18.7
Ang isang treaty ally
42:19.8
Ang pwede rin tumulong sa US
42:21.4
By giving access to Americans
42:30.9
China is not gonna wait
42:33.9
Situation whereby
42:34.7
Sobrang dami ng mga
42:37.9
And to the south of Taiwan
42:38.9
So as early as right now
42:42.7
Sobrang aggressive yung China
42:44.4
Diyan sa West Philippines
42:45.8
Gusto nila tayong takutin
42:48.1
Their concern is that
42:51.8
Ang sobrang daming
42:53.8
Ang mga Amerikanos
42:55.8
Malapit sa West Philippine Sea
42:57.1
Pero malapit rin sa Taiwan
43:03.0
That's actually something
43:03.8
Interesting for the Philippines
43:06.5
Ang pwede gawin ng Pilipinas
43:08.7
Again in theory lang yun
43:09.9
Is sasabihin niya
43:13.8
Na maging neutral ako totally
43:15.5
Treaty alliance eh
43:17.0
Allies cannot be neutral
43:18.3
During time of war
43:19.3
Kung may mga namatay
43:20.3
Na Amerikano dyan
43:21.1
Na may giyera sa Taiwan
43:24.6
Hindi mo pwede sabihin yan
43:26.3
So either you're with us
43:29.8
You have to choose
43:34.4
Because US ally ka
43:36.4
Ang pwede sabihin
43:42.8
Siyempre US ally kami
43:45.4
Malakas yung situation namin
43:46.5
Sa West Philippines eh
43:51.3
Kung mag-isa lang
43:55.0
Kaya walang kwenta
43:56.5
Ng mga ibang kadDS
43:58.0
Di diplomacy lang tayo
44:01.0
Kung wala kang leverage
44:01.9
Kung wala kang backup
44:02.8
Kung mag-isa mo lang
44:04.7
Hindi ka sinirespeto yun
44:11.4
Anong nakuha ni digong
44:21.0
Sa Juan Felipe Riff
44:21.8
Lahat yan nangyari
44:22.4
Sa panawin digong
44:24.2
Dahil mahina tayo
44:29.2
Ang Pilipinas ngayon
44:30.6
And ididikit ko ngayon
44:41.0
Deadlock situation
44:41.9
But the part of me
44:44.2
There's a good chance
44:48.7
Kunti mag-stabilize
44:51.1
Taiwan-China relations
44:53.7
Katulad ng sinabi natin
44:59.2
Dahil sa internet connection
45:05.8
Xi Jinping and Lai
45:06.7
Ayon nila ng gera din
45:08.8
May pressure sa kanila
45:10.0
To show toughness
45:12.3
Are also under pressure
45:14.1
Dahil sa economic problems
45:15.9
In the case naman
45:19.9
He'll not control the legislature
45:21.2
And as early as now
45:22.8
A unity government
45:23.9
And he's looking at
45:25.3
Making certain concessions
45:29.7
Yung mga more pro-China
45:33.3
So there's some chance
45:35.4
Behind the scenes
45:36.4
There'll be efforts
45:37.1
At stabilizing the relations
45:40.5
And sa newspapers
45:41.5
As being in China
45:44.9
Sabihin niya malakas
45:46.6
Behind the scenes
45:48.7
Rationality to actually
45:50.7
Have the upper hand
45:52.4
Not necessarily prevail
45:53.2
But have the upper hand
45:55.5
Ikaw ay nasa Pilipinas
45:57.0
Anong gagawin mo ngayon?
45:58.5
Kung ikaw ay nasa Pilipinas
45:59.5
Ang gagawin mo ngayon
46:05.0
Ayon ng China daw
46:07.5
Pero nanalang naman ang DPP
46:10.0
Ang Taiwanese din naman
46:12.3
Mag-realify sa China
46:13.4
But the good thing is
46:15.3
Both China and Taiwan
46:16.3
Ayaw nila nalang gyera
46:17.4
Despite all the rhetoric
46:19.4
Ikaw ang Pilipinas
46:20.4
Ganito ang magiging
46:21.9
Sasabihin mo sa China
46:24.9
Andyan yung aliansa namin
46:27.9
Hindi matatanggal yan
46:28.8
Tsaka hindi naman kami
46:34.6
One-on-one lang tayo
46:37.9
No match ang Pilipinas
46:38.8
Sa China one-on-one
46:39.7
Pero kung may backup tayo
46:40.8
Medyo may konting leverage tayo
46:42.9
Ang pwedeng gawin natin is
46:46.2
Yung sa mga bases
46:47.5
Na pinakonood ng Philippines
46:48.7
Huwag natin bigay ng
46:54.6
Pwede mo gawin yan
46:55.5
On so many levels
46:59.9
Sa ilalim ng ETCA
47:01.1
Actually ang mga Amerikano
47:02.8
Magkakaroon sila ng permiso
47:04.8
Na mag-pre-position
47:06.6
Pre-position ng mga weapon systems
47:08.6
So pwede sila maglagay ng mga malalaking armas
47:12.6
Pag sinasabi kong armas
47:13.6
Hindi lang itong mga tanke
47:15.7
Pwede mga Patriot missile systems
47:17.9
Pwede HIMARS systems
47:18.8
Pwede very very advanced
47:21.3
Ang pwede gawin ng Pilipinas siguro
47:25.4
Sige papayagan pa rin namin yung mga kano
47:27.9
Na maglalagay sila ng mga sundalo dyan
47:29.6
Pero hindi namin papayagan ng mga kano
47:31.7
Na maglalagay sila ng mga sundalo dyan
47:32.8
Naglalagay ng napakalaki ng mga weapon systems
47:34.6
Na pwede gamitin in case of
47:38.7
And at the same time
47:40.8
Ililimit natin yung numbers ng mga kano
47:43.0
Na pwede mag-deploy
47:45.0
Dyan sa mga ETCA bases sa North
47:48.7
Off-limit ang Mavulis
47:50.6
Off-limit yung mga pinaka
47:52.0
Mga Northern Military bases sa Batanes
47:54.1
So you can give a 3-level mini concessions to China
47:58.5
Itong kukunin mo sa China
48:00.0
Sasabihin mo sa China
48:04.1
Alam ko mag-iingay ka
48:07.9
O kasi kung ano ka
48:10.0
Bibigyan namin ng mga Amerikano
48:11.3
Ng malalaking bases sa North
48:12.5
Malapit sa Taiwan
48:13.2
O lagat kayo dyan sa Taiwan
48:15.5
Pwede natin sabihin
48:17.4
Ang gawin mo naman ngayon
48:19.2
Pag na-fortify namin yung
48:21.6
Dyan sa Yung Insyol
48:23.0
O huwag kayong magulo masyado
48:24.9
O huwag kayong masyadong bully-bully dyan
48:27.9
At gagawa kami ng mga facilities dyan
48:31.1
At saka mga ibang
48:33.4
O huwag kayong masyadong gulo
48:34.8
Again on the record
48:35.7
Lahat matapang gano'n
48:36.9
Pero behind the scenes
48:38.0
Pwede mo i-negotiate yan
48:42.8
Paano natin pwede leverage
48:45.2
Bilang isang Pilipino
48:47.0
Ang situation ngayon sa Taiwan
48:49.3
In the interest of the
48:50.7
Philippine national interest
48:52.4
At sa akin palagay
48:56.1
Hindi naman ibig sabihin yan na
48:58.0
We're gonna leave the Taiwanese to themselves
48:59.6
Taiwan will continue to develop
49:01.1
Its deterrence capability
49:02.8
Japan will continue to help Taiwan
49:04.7
In one way or another
49:05.5
US will continue to help them
49:06.9
Pero pagdating sa Pilipinas
49:08.6
We can leverage this also
49:10.5
We have a better situation
49:11.6
In the West Philippine Sea
49:12.5
Or at the very least
49:14.1
Ang pwede natin gawin dito is
49:15.4
I-tone down natin
49:16.4
Intentions ng konti
49:19.4
Kung lahat tayo maximalist
49:23.1
War games ng war games
49:25.9
Bigyan natin ng laking access
49:27.9
Sa south ng Taiwan
49:33.9
Para tagulan na yan
49:35.1
So I think we can be part of
49:37.0
A de-escalation mechanism
49:39.5
Tone things down a little bit
49:40.9
And give diplomacy a chance
49:43.5
That's my point eh
49:44.4
I am for diplomacy
49:46.1
But I'm never for diplomacy
49:47.5
From a position of weakness
49:48.7
Because diplomacy
49:49.6
From a position of weakness
49:51.3
And ang mga siyong nga lang
49:57.0
I am for diplomacy
49:58.6
But from a position of strength
50:03.4
Yun pong hinanap natin dito
50:06.5
Thank you very much
50:10.2
Of the bigger geopolitical picture here
50:13.4
Bilang mga Pilipino
50:14.7
Dato may pakit tayo
50:15.7
Sa nangyayari sa cross-strait relations
50:17.2
Sa pagitan ng Taipei
50:22.4
Nang kinalaman na ito
50:27.9
Nang kinalaman na ito
50:29.2
Pwede natin gawin
50:33.4
Diyan sa West Philippine Sea
50:36.1
Ay related to each other
50:42.0
Mag-integrated tayo
50:47.6
Truly independent
50:49.9
Pero yung ibig sabihin na
50:51.2
Syusunga-syunga ka
50:52.0
You have to think for your own
50:53.2
National interest
50:54.0
And you have to contribute
50:58.2
So I am for diplomacy
51:00.0
I am for de-escalation
51:02.1
Philippine nationals
51:05.8
In dealing with this
51:07.0
So yun ang sinasabi ko
51:08.8
Yun ang wala dun sa
51:09.8
Sa mga ibang makapili
51:13.1
Kasi hindi nila alam
51:15.7
Itong mga malilitang bagay
51:16.9
Technicalities yan eh
51:18.2
Parang sa koche yan
51:20.3
Yung mga nananda ng YouTube
51:21.7
Alam nila yung koche
51:23.5
Yung mga basic stats
51:24.5
Pero kung expert ka
51:26.1
You will see certain
51:27.8
Na hindi mo mahanap
51:28.6
Sa YouTube University
51:31.3
There are many little nuances
51:33.9
Diplomacy versus war
51:35.6
Ang mga nagsasabi lang yan
51:37.4
Yung mga walang alam
51:41.6
Diplomacy under what conditions
51:43.8
Diplomacy with what strategy
51:46.0
Diplomacy with what mindset
51:48.5
So I am 100% for diplomacy
51:50.5
But for smart diplomacy
51:52.9
And for diplomacy
51:55.2
The national interest
51:56.7
Of the Filipino people
51:58.8
Maraming salamat mga kameta
51:59.9
I hope you enjoyed
52:03.2
Now down the road
52:04.9
We're hoping to do more
52:08.3
Or something like that
52:08.9
We'll try to do analysis
52:11.5
All of these things to you
52:15.6
Para mas ma-appreciate
52:17.8
Ngayon conceptual
52:22.2
Conflicts and issues
52:24.2
Domestic politics
52:25.7
International politics
52:29.0
National interest
52:29.8
I look at diplomacy
52:30.9
I look at psychology
52:33.4
Different variables
52:34.2
And how they interact
52:35.0
This is next level
52:37.4
That's how you do
52:38.3
Proper geopolitical analysis
52:39.6
Thank you very much
52:42.2
And talk to you soon
52:47.2
Thank you very much
52:52.2
Dun sa mga technical problems
52:53.4
This lesson learned
52:58.1
Habang inayos pa namin
53:00.2
And talk to you soon
