01:12.9
for any kind of referendum or
01:15.3
de jure declaration of independence
01:17.6
which, of course, could trigger
01:18.9
a total war with China.
01:21.2
Now, balikan natin itong issue na ito. Anong nangyayari
01:23.3
sa Taiwan at anong implication na ito para sa Pilipinas?
01:26.9
Many things to catch up on.
01:31.8
napanood nyo yung mga review natin
01:33.9
ng Gomborza the other day
01:36.0
and please, if you didn't have a chance to check it,
01:37.8
go and check it out on our different platforms
01:39.7
on YouTube, Spotify, among others
01:41.6
because for me, pagdating sa
01:47.5
It, in many ways, perhaps
01:49.7
is the beginning of a new golden era
01:51.8
for Philippine cinema.
01:53.4
Anyway, it is a renaissance for Philippine cinema.
01:55.9
Now, balikan natin itong issue ng
01:57.6
Taiwan because malaki ang implication na ito
02:00.0
sa Pilipinas, operationally
02:01.3
and also geopolitically
02:04.1
and potentially even, you know,
02:08.2
Speaking of operationally,
02:10.0
mamaya pag-usapan natin yan because if you look at
02:11.8
the ETCA bases, some of the ETCA bases
02:13.8
are very close to Taiwan
02:15.1
and that means na pagdating dun sa mga
02:18.2
strategic calculus ng
02:19.9
Pilipinas at mga aliado natin, both
02:21.9
Japan and, of course, the United States,
02:24.5
one of the reasons why interesado
02:26.3
ang Amerika in terms of
02:28.0
gaining access to bases north of the Philippines is
02:29.9
because of the Taiwan question.
02:31.6
So kung ano mangyayari sa Taiwan, in one way or another,
02:35.4
some implications dun sa ating
02:38.3
aliansa with the United States
02:39.6
but more broadly, it's gonna also have
02:41.8
implications for our own national security,
02:44.0
our own strategic calculus at saka
02:45.9
yung ating relasyon sa China.
02:48.2
So in short, hindi natin mahiwalay
02:49.7
ang nangyayari sa Taiwan
02:51.5
dun sa mga nangyayari sa pagitan ng
02:53.7
Pilipinas, China, at America.
02:56.0
All of these are very much related and later on
02:58.1
operationally, I'll show you why we're
02:59.9
gonna look at the number of maps, we're gonna look at
03:01.8
the number of figures
03:04.0
that show to you how important
03:05.8
Taiwan is to the Philippines, in addition
03:08.1
to the fact na, of course, katulad na mga marami
03:09.9
natin mga kababayan na nag-follow
03:12.3
sa atin all around the world, I noticed na
03:13.9
marami din tayong mga kababayan
03:15.8
at kaibigan at followers sa Taiwan.
03:20.1
several hundred thousand strong
03:22.1
ang ASEAN and Filipino
03:23.8
community dyan sa Taiwan. Marami
03:25.9
sa kanila na meet natin nung visiting
03:27.7
scholar ako sa National Chengchi University.
03:29.9
Few years ago, just before pandemic.
03:32.4
So, obviously, yung
03:34.0
primary concern natin kung sakaling
03:35.9
magkakaroon ng gulo sa Taiwan is
03:38.0
yung kalagayan na ating
03:42.0
ating mga kababayan.
03:44.1
But whether we like it or not,
03:46.2
that's, you know,
03:47.9
that's not, unfortunately,
03:50.1
that's not gonna be the only concern.
03:52.2
Potentially, may military and geopolitical
03:53.9
concern din ng Pilipinas when it comes to
03:55.9
things that are happening in Taiwan. So, I would argue that
03:58.0
of all ASEAN countries, and perhaps,
03:59.9
of all countries in the world, siguro ang Pilipinas
04:02.1
ay nasa top three or
04:04.2
at most, top five
04:06.1
countries na maging most directly
04:08.2
affected if something major
04:10.1
happens in Taiwan, right? So, that's why
04:12.2
please pay attention to what's happening
04:13.9
in Taiwan. And then, on side note, I don't
04:16.1
know to trivialize the situation. Of course, yung mga kababayan
04:18.1
natin na hindi pa nakapunta sa Taiwan. Ang
04:19.8
daw akong kilala mga Pilipino na
04:21.3
nakapunta sa kung saan-saan,
04:23.9
you know, corner of the world, pero hindi
04:25.7
nakapunta sa Taiwan na napakalapit sa atin. It's a
04:27.9
beautiful country, fantastic people. I love it.
04:29.9
I love the culture. I love the food.
04:31.8
There's so much, so much to see
04:33.9
in Taiwan. And, guess
04:36.0
what? It's just over one hour away
04:38.1
from Manila to Taipei,
04:39.8
and from Lawag in the north to
04:41.8
Kaohsiung, probably wala pang 20 minutes
04:43.9
yan with flight, diba? So,
04:45.7
napakalapit ang Taiwan sa atin. And
04:48.0
geography is geopolitics,
04:50.2
no? So, pag-usapan lahat natin
04:52.0
mga yan. But before
04:53.3
going into the broader
04:55.8
implications for the Philippines, ating national security,
04:58.0
ETCA, Philippine-China-US Triangle,
04:59.9
let's briefly discuss
05:02.1
ano nangyayari sa Taiwan to begin with, para lang
05:03.9
makakatch up tayo ng konti. Obviously,
05:06.4
you're free to check my writings,
05:08.1
including upcoming writings
05:09.5
on the Taiwan elections and its
05:12.0
broader geopolitical implications.
05:14.1
Ipropose natin yan. Actually, if you could just
05:15.9
go online, post, Hey, Darian, Taiwan,
05:18.2
you're gonna see a number of things for background
05:19.9
information. But,
05:21.7
I will post to you,
05:23.9
ipo-forward ko rin kung may mga bagong articles tayo.
05:26.4
But in the meantime, let me just give you an overview
05:28.0
dun sa mga medyo tinatamad.
05:29.9
Sa, right? Ayan, yung mga
05:33.2
yung mga tiktokers natin,
05:35.2
nangasar na sila, alright?
05:38.3
Yung mga polvoronic yan.
05:39.8
Okay, yung mga tinatamad, nagpo-polvoronic.
05:42.3
Ayan, makinig na lang kayo dito, alright?
05:43.7
Bibigyan natin ng crash course. And of course, by the way,
05:47.7
sa ating mga madridistas.
05:49.9
Ayan, nanalo tayo ng
05:51.3
finals ng Super Cup
05:54.2
laban sa Barcelona.
05:55.8
Of course, I have nothing against Barcelona, but, you know,
05:57.9
heart and a tie. Very,
05:59.9
ano tayo, diehard
06:01.5
madridista po tayo. So, congratulations
06:03.6
sa Real Madrid. Very young team. Very,
06:07.1
energetic team and huge, huge potential.
06:10.2
So, I'm super happy for Real Madrid.
06:12.7
And, at the same time, of course,
06:14.1
congratulations also to the new administration
06:17.9
administration sa Taiwan, the
06:19.7
William Lai administration.
06:22.2
Pag-usapan natin yan. So, eto,
06:23.5
these are the numbers. So,
06:26.1
the race, actually, was
06:28.1
much closer than many thought.
06:29.9
I was in Taiwan a few months ago
06:34.0
actually, iba sa inyo, you were able to
06:35.8
watch live, kasi na-livestream ko yung
06:37.8
papasok si William Lai
06:39.8
dun sa event namin sa Taiwan
06:41.8
and he gave a speech
06:44.1
so you can find it actually on my
06:46.0
pages, especially sa Facebook page
06:48.0
na-livestream natin, si William Lai coming in.
06:50.4
I found him very relaxed.
06:52.0
I found him very self-assured and self-confident.
06:55.9
flashy. Definitely not populist.
06:58.5
Definitely not demagogic.
06:59.9
Definitely not ozon provocateur.
07:02.4
So, let's just hope for
07:04.1
responsible statesmanship
07:05.7
and for continuing the good legacy
07:08.0
of the outgoing Taiwanese President
07:09.9
Tsai Ing-wen. Because in fairness to President
07:11.7
Tsai Ing-wen, I know marami siyang
07:13.8
critics inside Taipei, marami siyang
07:15.8
critics outside Taipei,
07:17.8
but I think overall she was able to prevent
07:20.1
any major diplomatic crisis
07:22.1
with China. The only major
07:24.1
event that happened during the Tsai Ing-wen
07:25.8
administration, hindi ito kasalanan
07:28.0
ni Tsai Ing-wen. Kasalanan ito ng mga Amerikan.
07:29.9
Or kasalanan din niya
07:32.1
ng mga Chino. And this was the
07:33.5
pagbisita ni former
07:35.8
Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi
07:37.9
sa Taipei. I'm not sure
07:40.1
how much that was
07:41.3
instigated on the part of Taipei and Taiwan.
07:44.6
Some are saying that was more
07:46.1
sariling sikap ni
07:47.7
then outgoing Speaker of the House
07:49.9
Nancy Pelosi. And of course, that marked
07:52.0
what experts call the fourth
07:55.9
crisis or the fourth
07:57.2
cross-straits crisis.
07:58.6
Right? Thankfully,
08:00.7
hindi nakaroon ng gyera and thankfully, we're able
08:02.6
to get through it. In fact, napansin ko dito
08:04.6
sa TikTok, for instance, in most view
08:06.7
video natin, analysis natin
08:08.8
is actually in the Taiwan crisis
08:09.9
noong August 2022.
08:13.2
Close to half a million views. So
08:14.5
I'm glad that there's a lot of interest.
08:16.8
I'm glad that there's a lot of interest
08:18.4
pagdating sa developments
08:22.6
at cross-straits relations
08:24.5
including on TikTok, which of course
08:26.6
you know, medyo binash natin ako.
08:28.6
The other month, kasi
08:30.7
sabi ko, parang yung mga pinapost ko
08:32.6
sa West Philippines, parang ano.
08:34.5
Anyway, mga pang-usapan yun,
08:36.5
balikan natin itong TikTok later on. Okay, let's go back to Taipei.
08:39.2
Let's go back to Taipei
08:40.3
and Taiwan and what happened there.
08:42.7
So eto, katulad ng kitang dito sa graphics
08:44.6
na yan, of course, don't worry yung mga ibang
08:46.2
followers natin on different platforms, you'll see a
08:48.4
finalist version of this. So if you look at it,
08:51.3
the elections was
08:52.5
pretty tight because there were three candidates.
08:55.1
Usually, it's like,
08:56.6
because Taiwan is supposed to be more like United States.
08:58.6
And what the Philippines was supposed to look like,
09:00.9
which was like a two-party systems or
09:02.7
dominant two-party systems.
09:04.8
But these elections, for the
09:06.8
first time in a very long time, actually, the third party,
09:09.0
the TPP party by Ko Wen-je
09:12.8
actually did very, very well.
09:15.1
Very, very well. It won
09:16.4
close to 4 million votes,
09:18.5
which was equal to 26.46%
09:20.9
of the votes. The Go-Ming-Tang
09:22.7
party, which used to be the dominant
09:24.7
party for almost, what, half a century,
09:26.5
and then still managed to win
09:28.6
elections during democratic elections.
09:30.2
So actually, I had a chance to meet back
09:32.6
then when he was the president, mind you.
09:36.6
Zhao Kung, they managed to win
09:44.6
So that's equal to 33%
09:46.4
of the votes. So put together,
09:48.6
if you look at the TPP
09:50.4
party and Go-Ming-Tang party,
09:52.3
that's more or less 60%
09:54.6
of the votes, right? But because
09:56.7
split, yung dalawang alternative parties,
09:58.6
na yan, that provided the opening
10:04.0
together with Xiao B. Kim
10:05.9
at 40%. So just over 40%,
10:10.2
and close to 6 million votes.
10:12.9
Now, this is lower
10:16.3
votes that Tsai Ing-wen
10:18.3
won in the previous
10:20.2
elections in 2020. Significantly
10:22.4
lower, but because it was a three-way
10:28.6
a pretty comfortable lead. Because if you
10:30.7
look at the lead between number one and number two,
10:32.6
that's the TPP and the Go-Ming-Tang
10:34.5
party, that's a huge lead.
10:36.7
That's more than 1 million votes,
10:44.7
So, not even close,
10:46.7
right? Now, there were concerns that the
10:48.6
race was closing because as I said, I remember
10:50.6
when in August I was
10:51.7
in Taiwan and listening to
10:54.6
William Lai, he was
10:56.4
a prohibitive favorite, but the race,
10:58.6
the race began to close, and then
11:00.7
we look at the final result,
11:02.9
it was a comfortable win. But,
11:04.5
as I already mentioned a while ago, if
11:08.7
and the TPP party, if they joined
11:10.6
forces, they would have had
11:12.7
close to 60% of the votes, and
11:14.7
they would have had
11:15.9
changed the result of these
11:18.5
elections, you know? Now,
11:21.3
internal party politics,
11:24.6
TAPO politics, whatever you want to call it,
11:26.7
hindi po mayak either siho,
11:28.6
or siko, na bumaba as
11:30.6
the vice presidential race. So, hindi na karoon ng
11:32.5
unit team, right? So,
11:34.5
had the TPP and Go-Ming-Tang
11:36.4
form a unit team,
11:38.6
then they would have defeated the TPP party,
11:40.9
right? Even if TPP party
11:42.3
was able to secure a significant
11:44.6
plurality of the votes at around
11:48.8
The overall voting turnout was
11:50.5
around 72%, so that's 3%
11:52.8
lower than the previous elections,
11:55.0
but nevertheless among the highest
11:56.5
if you look at the established democracies.
11:58.0
So, that's quite interesting
11:59.4
if you look at that. Now, dun sa
12:02.1
parliamentary race, if you look at
12:07.4
it managed to win around 51 seats
12:16.7
Legislature, yung
12:17.7
Legislative Yuan,
12:19.4
they only lost by one because the
12:21.9
Go-Ming-Tang won 52 seats,
12:23.9
but neither of them have a majority,
12:28.0
the future of the
12:30.1
legislature of Taiwan is
12:32.3
still up for grabs
12:34.6
because the TPP party
12:36.5
actually won 8 seats, and if I'm not
12:38.4
mistaken, the independents have 2 seats.
12:41.0
So, around 10 seats will
12:44.4
will control the legislature.
12:46.9
So, it's not necessarily
12:48.7
100% sure that the
12:50.3
opposition will control the Legislative Yuan,
12:52.6
so there's still some slight chance that
12:54.3
the TPP party will hold on to
12:56.3
both the legislature and
12:58.0
the executive, although I'd rather not
13:01.1
Now, having said that,
13:04.8
bago na karoon ng elections,
13:06.2
actually, China made so many threats.
13:08.6
So, so many threats, and in fact,
13:10.4
those threats were made even
13:12.2
after the elections.
13:13.6
So, ahead of the race,
13:18.0
they've been bashing the TPP party, and essentially
13:20.1
warning the Taiwanese people against voting
13:24.4
party because they see them as
13:25.9
renegades, they see them
13:28.0
as troublemakers, and if you look
13:30.1
at some of the headlines coming out there,
13:32.4
there'll be severe punishment
13:33.8
if ever in an aling
13:35.9
TPP party na more
13:37.7
pro-independence than the other party, especially
13:39.9
Kuomintang. Although, as I said,
13:42.1
even the TPP is making sure
13:44.1
that they don't openly provoke
13:45.8
China and not give you an excuse.
13:48.1
If you look at some of the more right-wing
13:51.8
Western publications, they look at how
13:53.8
China has vowed to
13:58.0
Taiwan moves towards something
13:59.7
more dramatic. Now,
14:02.5
it looks like none of these threats
14:03.8
by China really work. In fact, it was
14:05.8
not only threats by China. I mean, China did a lot
14:07.7
of military exercises around Taiwan
14:09.6
over the past year, not only
14:11.3
after yung Nancy Pelosi visit.
14:14.7
Also, there were concerns
14:15.8
about Chinese sharp power operations.
14:17.9
Alam nyo na yung mga yan, yung mga
14:19.3
Pogo style, yung mga ganan, diba?
14:24.0
in 2018, if I'm not
14:25.7
mistaken, in the parliamentary
14:27.7
elections, medyo malaki yung talo
14:29.7
ng DPP party back then because
14:31.5
China allegedly was able
14:33.7
to influence the elections by
14:35.6
backing a lot of pro-Beijing
14:37.3
folks, and a lot of them
14:39.5
allegedly comes from the Kuomintang party, which
14:41.3
ironically was kalaban of Communist Party
14:43.2
back during the Civil War years.
14:45.7
So, there has been fears
14:47.4
na China will be able to manipulate the
14:49.5
elections, undermine the elections,
14:51.3
sabotage the elections, and essentially
14:53.5
intimidate and bully the voters
14:55.1
against rallying behind the DPP party,
14:57.5
but none of that happened.
14:60.0
None of that actually happened.
15:01.4
What happened eventually was
15:02.9
opposition remained,
15:05.6
the pro-Beijing opposition
15:07.2
remained divided,
15:08.8
and they could not come together.
15:11.2
But more importantly, and this is
15:12.7
what I have to emphasize here,
15:15.2
don't worry guys, I'm not going to overdo
15:17.2
the Taiwan part. I know in the malaki, I'm super
15:19.2
excited about Taiwan, but I have to do this part because
15:21.3
before we go to the broader
15:23.2
regional implications, we have
15:25.4
to look at what happened inside Taiwan first.
15:27.5
I know. Okay, so if you look at it,
15:29.9
this is an interesting survey by National
15:31.5
Changsha University, which actually I used to be
15:33.5
based there as a visiting scholar.
15:35.9
So, if you look at this survey,
15:37.5
it's very interesting. Now, as you know,
15:39.5
of course, Taiwan is technically
15:41.3
called Republic of China.
15:43.5
They consider themselves as the true
15:45.3
heir of what Sun Yat-sen
15:46.9
began more than 100 years
15:51.6
course, a lot of folks in Taiwan are
15:53.4
of Chinese ethnic
15:55.6
background. A lot of them,
15:57.5
well, a huge number of them speak
15:59.5
Mandarin or Chinese. A lot of them also speak Japanese
16:01.6
by the way, because of the Japanese colonial history there.
16:04.1
Apparently, it was not as bad as
16:05.5
what we had in the case of the Philippines and other
16:07.5
Southeast Asian countries. Now, if you look
16:09.6
at it, if this is a survey,
16:15.5
vast majority of Taiwanese,
16:17.6
sorry, over time, more and more
16:19.5
Taiwanese, from 92
16:21.4
all the way to 2023,
16:25.3
If you look at the green
16:28.8
you could see, so from
16:32.8
of Taiwanese, now, close to
16:34.8
70% of Taiwanese consider themselves
16:37.0
as primarily Taiwanese.
16:39.5
Right? So, they see
16:40.8
themselves as belonging to
16:42.8
a de facto separate nation.
16:45.4
Now, at the same time, those who consider
16:46.7
themselves as only Chinese
16:48.7
has significantly
16:50.4
reduced over time.
16:52.8
And then, those who see themselves as both
16:54.7
Chinese and Taiwanese,
16:57.5
there's a steady secular decline.
16:59.8
So, the Taiwanese sense
17:01.6
of identity has significantly,
17:03.4
significantly increased. And that's
17:05.6
why, actually, ang nangyari dito is,
17:07.5
kahit yung mga seemingly
17:09.6
pro-China candidates,
17:13.6
tone down their rhetoric, and even
17:15.7
they had to essentially
17:17.7
renounce, or not naman renounce,
17:21.3
or shun any serious
17:23.4
discussion of reunification with China.
17:25.7
Kasi alam nyo naman, diba, ang idea
17:27.4
dyan is, both Taiwan
17:29.7
and China, tanggap nila na may isa lang
17:31.6
China, ang disagreement nila is
17:33.7
kanino dapat yung ultimate
17:35.6
sovereignty? Is it the
17:37.7
regime that escaped to Taiwan
17:39.4
and eventually created
17:41.3
the foundations of what we today
17:43.5
call the Republic of China, or
17:45.5
is it the communist regime in Beijing?
17:48.0
Right? So, both of them agree that there's
17:49.6
one modern China, but
17:51.5
they don't agree on
17:52.6
whom should sovereignty lie.
17:55.8
But the reality is that,
17:57.4
both Taiwan and China are moving
17:59.4
in a much more confrontational direction
18:01.4
because Taiwanese are feeling less
18:03.4
and less attached to China
18:04.7
and they're feeling more and more
18:07.1
de facto independent
18:08.9
although they're not moving yet towards a
18:11.3
de jure declaration of independence.
18:13.6
No one wants war, no one wants to provoke
18:15.5
China. At the same time, yung China rin
18:17.4
nagiging more assertive siya
18:19.3
in terms of emphasizing
18:21.3
na ang Taiwan po ay dapat
18:23.4
kabilang ng China and
18:25.4
that should happen sooner than later.
18:27.4
So, kung titignan nyo yung
18:32.4
speech ni Xi Jinping
18:34.5
on Taiwan, he effectively
18:37.6
said that all options are still
18:43.0
President Xi Jinping or paramount leader
18:45.2
Xi Jinping said, Taiwan and China
18:47.6
will surely be unified.
18:49.4
Dun sa kanyang New Year's Eve
18:53.3
Beijing is implying,
18:55.3
well, not implying, they're accusing Taiwan
18:57.4
of moving towards de facto
18:59.2
independence and they're accusing them
19:01.3
of being agent provocateurs
19:02.4
but for Taiwanese, not only do they feel more
19:05.2
Taiwanese, but they also
19:07.3
feel that they're being more bullied
19:08.6
and therefore they have to protect themselves more.
19:11.4
So, both are moving towards
19:12.8
some sort of confrontation.
19:15.4
Interestingly, while they're moving towards
19:17.2
more confrontation,
19:19.3
both are also hoping
19:21.2
that status quo holds. So, it's a very
19:23.3
tricky, tricky situation because
19:29.1
both are worried, but also both want
19:31.2
the situation not to escalate
19:35.4
dito yung risky ng situation because
19:39.6
Ito yung tinatawag ko na dangerous deadlock.
19:42.0
So, sa isang banda,
19:43.9
ang China, yan ang gyera.
19:50.2
nagsaslow dang economy sa China,
19:52.1
President Xi Jinping
19:52.9
is the paramount leader, so
19:55.2
anything that goes wrong, it's gonna be
19:57.0
on him. So, there's more
19:59.1
pressure on President Xi Jinping. After everything
20:01.0
he has been saying, after everything yung mga
20:02.8
factotums niya have been saying,
20:05.0
there's a lot of, there's growing pressure on
20:07.0
the President, right? There's growing pressure on
20:09.0
President Xi Jinping to assert
