SEN. TRILLANES ON WEST PHILIPPINE SEA, DUTERTE, TULFOS & OPPOSITION
00:54.2
the other spokesman of Duterte will say that.
00:56.4
Dami mga contradictory statements coming out.
00:58.8
Sinapaniwala natin China or si Panelo or si Harry Roque?
01:03.0
What's going on there?
01:04.9
Well, una-una, yung gentleman's agreement as they describe it.
01:09.3
I think it's one form of diplomatic engagement.
01:16.0
So ito kasi between heads of state.
01:19.4
So there's nothing wrong with that per se,
01:22.5
except dapat kung ikaw head of state ka.
01:26.4
In this case, si Duterte, dapat tinutulak mo at pinoproteksyonan mo yung interest ng bansa mo.
01:33.0
But the details of that agreement as articulated by Harry Roque,
01:39.4
elapsided yun against the interest of the country.
01:43.4
Kasi nga, di ba, pag pinagbabawalan mo yung repair ng barko natin,
01:49.5
edi masisira yun.
01:50.5
Remember, commissioned ship pa siya.
01:55.6
At walang pwedeng pumigil sa atin sa pag-repair ng barko natin,
02:02.1
which is technically commissioned vessel of the Philippine Navy pa rin.
02:08.2
Yun ang naging problema dyan.
02:10.5
Now, kung sino papaniwalaan,
02:12.6
I believe, based on the sequence of events,
02:18.0
naglabas yung China about the secret deal with the Duterte administration,
02:23.3
tapos sinabi rin nung DFA na yun daw ang sinasabi na lumalabas,
02:29.4
the deal with the Duterte administration.
02:31.1
Then lumabas si Harry Roque,
02:33.7
dinitalya niya kung ano yung mga ano nun,
02:38.9
kung ano nilalaman ng secret deal na yun.
02:42.7
So in this case, yun na, nabuo na yung storya.
02:45.8
Ngayon itong belated appearance ni Panelo,
02:49.1
ano ito? Crisis management na ito?
02:52.0
Peer crisis management.
02:55.0
You can extract that or strike that out from the public discourse yung kay Panelo.
03:04.2
At itong kay Duterte, di ba dapat siya naman yung magsasalita dyan.
03:11.2
Ngayon titignan natin, ano ba?
03:14.1
Is it really parang unbelievable or out of character for Mr. Duterte
03:23.3
to make such a gentleman's agreement na lopsided against the interest of the country?
03:28.7
No, I don't think so.
03:30.6
Dahil nakita naman natin, all six years ni Duterte talagang sinasabi niya,
03:37.3
ang mga sinasabi niya na statements publicly are really favoring China.
03:44.0
Sinasabi niya na nasasama siya sa ideological flow ng China.
03:50.8
Ideological flow, yeah.
03:52.9
Then sabi niya gawin na lang probinsya ng China yung Pilipinas, di ba?
04:00.2
Tapos nakita mo, dinedefend niya si Xi Jinping, mahal na mahal daw niya,
04:04.9
tinitira niya yung Western powers.
04:06.6
So consistent itong nilabas na detalya ni Harry Roque
04:11.0
doon sa mga previous public pronouncements ni Duterte
04:14.9
na talagang parang ano siya eh, vassal state ng China.
04:22.9
pinakang problema dito.
04:25.7
Now, as it is, as articulated, talagang katraiduran yun
04:31.3
in the sense na hindi niya pinaglaban yung interest ng Pilipinas.
04:37.6
Kung hindi, binigay pa niya, no?
04:40.7
At binigyan niya ng basbas ng presidente ng Pilipinas.
04:44.8
Now, how different is that with the 2012 backchannel talks nung panahon ni Pinoy?
04:50.6
So yung circumstances kasi noon.
04:52.9
Yung circumstances noon, talagang yung status ko was different.
04:59.4
April 8, nagkaroon ng standoff, nagswarm yung mga Chinese vessels,
05:05.4
numbering almost a hundred.
05:07.3
We had three Philippine vessels there.
05:09.8
Mainit na mainit yung tensyon noon to the point na muntit na magkaputukan.
05:14.8
So when I was appointed as the backchannel negotiator a month after,
05:22.9
Mainit na yung tensyon.
05:24.6
And the mission was to de-escalate the situation.
05:28.3
Kung baga, as it is, doon sa status ko at that time,
05:32.3
dehado tayo kasi they were swarming inside and outside the Scarborough Shoal.
05:38.3
Tapos sa atin, tatlo lang yung vessels natin.
05:40.7
Tapos mainit yung tensyon.
05:42.4
So the mission was to de-escalate the tension
05:44.8
and to reduce the number of ships doon sa Scarborough Shoal.
05:49.5
And through the three-month,
05:52.9
almost all, except for the three na nasa labas ng Shoal.
06:05.2
Wala tayong binigay, even an inch of our territory.
06:09.2
Maliwanag din na wala pa silang reclamation dyan sa Scarborough.
06:15.9
Kung baga, wala sila doon.
06:20.6
Walang Chinese vessels inside.
06:22.9
So nagawa yung mission.
06:25.0
Now, I think ito yung mistake ng China.
06:30.3
They thought by leaving the three ships there,
06:34.2
parang they would be flexing their masses.
06:38.9
Na tipong, hindi nyo pa rin kami totally, kasi may naiwan dito.
06:42.7
Kahit umalis sila.
06:45.7
At the end of the day, kung sa inyo yan, ba't kayo umalis?
06:48.4
It's because of the negotiations.
06:51.3
Pero nung hindi sila umalis,
06:52.9
si Pinoy, finailan sila ng arbitration case, which we won.
07:00.6
And because of that victory,
07:04.2
perpetually negated na sa international community yung kanilang nine-dash line.
07:10.7
So every time they will raise it up,
07:13.7
meron ng pang-contra noon na may official decision na yung arbitral tribunal.
07:20.5
So I believe yun yung mistake nila.
07:22.9
Because kung inalis nila yung tatlo na yun,
07:26.7
eh dapat hindi magpa-file si Pinoy.
07:29.3
Kasi bumalik sa status quo.
07:31.9
And that's the result of the backchannel negotiations.
07:35.5
Kumbaga, diplomatic approach, pero nilaban natin yung interest.
07:40.1
Now, let me just point out, Richard, yung difference between the negotiations then and the negotiations now.
07:47.8
Back then, we were dealing with President Hu Jintao.
07:55.4
Now, they're dealing with President Xi Jinping.
07:58.8
Now, there is a difference in terms of foreign policy nung time na yun at nung time ngayon.
08:05.2
Nung time na yun, hindi pa sila aggressive in expanding.
08:11.4
Ano pa lang, yung Hu Jintao administration was basically an extension of the Deng Xiaoping
08:26.9
rights, peaceful development, all of that.
08:30.0
Peaceful rights, yeah.
08:31.4
And economic domination.
08:36.6
Pero nagbago yun.
08:38.0
Kasi nga, si Jinping na yung nag-approach.
08:42.0
nagtataka kasi sila,
08:47.1
nanalo nung 2012 sa negotiations,
08:53.9
Yan yung nakita natin na isang ano nun.
08:56.9
Tapos, ang critical element dito,
08:59.9
doon sa mga panahon na yun,
09:05.9
November, incidentally, nagko-coincide dun sa transition of power sa US and sa China.
09:14.9
Sa US, nagkakaroon sila election nun,
09:17.9
which Obama eventually won.
09:27.9
At papalitan na si,
09:31.9
And may mga pumapalit nun,
09:33.9
may mga pumupustura nun,
09:35.9
yung grupo nila, Bo Xilai,
09:39.9
to, what's this, get in the way of the
09:48.9
So, nung time na yun, ang attitude din ng Beijing,
09:51.9
is to de-escalate.
09:54.9
Hindi pa sila ano eh.
09:56.9
Hindi pa solid yung kanilang transition of power.
10:03.9
Kaya, ganun yung circumstances nun.
10:06.9
Kaya dapat maintindihan natin na
10:09.9
nagbabago yung context niyan
10:13.9
Depende dun sa mga nangyayari nung mga panahon na yun.
10:17.9
So, just to be clear about this,
10:20.9
Senator Trillanes,
10:22.9
what you're saying here is that,
10:24.9
while there is a point to diplomacy,
10:26.9
and you have to be clear about your red lines,
10:28.9
it's also important to keep in mind, sinong kausap mo,
10:31.9
anong willingness, openness sila,
10:33.9
to any kind of compromise.
10:34.9
And of course, as you correctly pointed out,
10:36.9
by December 2013,
10:39.9
literally six, seven months after
10:41.9
Xi Jinping consolidates power,
10:42.9
that's where nagsimula yung reclamation.
10:44.9
And with inferiority of the militarization,
10:47.9
and now what I call militiaization,
10:49.9
this deployment, itong mga armada.
10:51.9
So, what you're arguing is that,
10:53.9
back then, because you were dealing with a much more,
10:55.9
I would say, moderate administration,
10:58.9
on a less, let's say, dictatorial regime,
11:02.9
you felt that there is a sound basis to try to
11:05.9
defuse a naval standoff.
11:07.9
Very serious situation back then.
11:09.9
While you're arguing that sa panonidigong,
11:11.9
medyo mas mahirap kausap itong China neto.
11:15.9
So, diplomacy is less about compromise,
11:17.9
but more about imposing their will on the Philippines.
11:20.9
Just to be clear about this,
11:22.9
the Cayetano term in the Department of Foreign Affairs,
11:28.9
it coincided with the so-called,
11:30.9
at least, three-nosed red line nila,
11:34.9
which is no militarization or reclamation
11:37.9
sa Scarborough Shoal,
11:38.9
no unilateral development of resources
11:41.9
sa U.S. Philippines sa ating exclusive economic zone,
11:44.9
and pangatlo sabi nila,
11:45.9
no forcible expulsion
11:48.9
I'm just trying to be fair also to them
11:49.9
because this is not officially
11:50.9
what Cayetano said.
11:52.9
But can you just clarify to us
11:53.9
why yung sinasabing status ko
11:59.9
is inherently inimical to our national interest
12:02.9
or contrary to our national interest,
12:03.9
as the DFA put it?
12:04.9
Can you explain to us the logistics of that?
12:07.9
If hindi natin na-fortify itong
12:09.9
PRP-Sierra Madre,
12:11.9
how is that against our national interest?
12:13.9
Para lang doon sa mga iba na mukhang hindi nila alam
12:15.9
yung logistical realities on the ground.
12:18.9
Just for context,
12:22.9
meron tayong nine islands
12:26.9
or formations or reefs na in-occupy.
12:30.9
Then kasama na dyan yung Ayungin.
12:34.9
Yung Ayungin through the PRP-Sierra Madre.
12:38.9
So yung status ko nung rotation
12:40.9
sa Pag-Asa and other outposts,
12:44.9
walang problema doon.
12:46.9
Pero kung ipe-prevent mo yung pag-repair
12:50.9
ng PRP-Sierra Madre,
12:53.9
eh detrimental to our interest yun.
12:55.9
Kasi nga, ano na siya eh,
12:57.9
dilapidated na yung barko
13:01.9
at pagka hindi yan na-repair
13:05.9
ng maayos, eh talagang ano na yan,
13:09.9
baka isang typhoon na lang yan,
13:11.9
it would be swept away.
13:13.9
Pagka nawala yan dyan,
13:15.9
therefore, pwede na nilang dapaan niyang Ayungin na yan
13:19.9
to prevent yung outpost.
13:22.9
Ngayon, ilalagay lang natin yung history niyan.
13:25.9
Bakit ba natin sinadsad yan?
13:27.9
Sinadsad natin yan in response
13:29.9
doon sa pagkuhan nila ng mischief reef.
13:33.9
Diba, mischief reef.
13:35.9
Una, naglagay sila ng fisherman's shelter.
13:40.9
Tapos eventually, nilagyan na nila ng base.
13:44.9
So in response, ito ngayon,
13:47.9
yung Arab administration,
13:49.9
nagsadsad sila ng BRP Sierra Madre.
13:51.9
I was still in the Navy then,
13:53.9
kaya alam ko yung surrounding circumstances noon.
13:58.9
Maraming mga options na nilatag noon
14:02.9
in response doon sa ginawa nila sa mischief reef.
14:06.9
Pero ultimately, they ended up with deliberately,
14:10.9
what's this, running aground.
14:13.9
Dito ang BRP Sierra Madre.
14:15.9
Pero ang nakita ko lang na bago nito,
14:18.9
noon na yung rotation, mga Navy ano yan,
14:21.9
personnel lang nandiyan dyan, may officer pa.
14:24.9
So yung maintenance ng barko, ano yan eh?
14:27.9
Inherent yan sa Philippine Navy personnel.
14:31.9
Yung pagre-repair ng deck,
14:33.9
pag-maintain ng naval guns,
14:35.9
yung communications equipment, etc.
14:37.9
But then, during the GMA administration,
14:41.9
they didn't do anything.
14:42.9
They decided, I don't know kung sinong leaders noon,
14:48.9
na they decided palitan yung Navy personnel
14:52.9
ng mga Marine personnel.
14:54.9
Yung Marines, ano yan sila sa, sabi ko nga,
14:58.9
sa digmaan, maasahan mo sila.
15:01.9
But they don't have any idea
15:04.9
on how to maintain a Navy ship.
15:07.9
So, simula noon, wala na, napabayaan na.
15:10.9
Kasi nung Navy pa lang yung nandod doon,
15:14.9
naka-assigned doon, kahit nakasadsad siya,
15:18.9
they were operating as though this was a
15:22.9
regularly commissioned Navy ship.
15:24.9
So yung nire-repair, nire-repaint yung deck,
15:28.9
nakinakalawang, ano siya?
15:31.9
As thorough yung maintenance niya as the ships
15:34.9
na nandod doon sa Cavitan Naval Base.
15:37.9
Pero nung tinanggal na, ito na ngayon.
15:39.9
Na dilapidated na talaga siya, napapabayaan na siya.
15:43.9
Kaya ang initial suggestion ko diyan,
15:46.9
mag-redeploy tayo ng Navy personnel diyan,
15:50.9
yung mga bosom smith rating na tinatawag namin,
15:53.9
those who are adept at maintaining the deck,
15:59.9
So kaya nilang i-repair yan.
16:01.9
Would you believe, Richard?
16:03.9
Pagka binalik mo yan sa Navy with the proper logistical support,
16:07.9
they can bring that back.
16:08.9
They can bring that back to almost original state.
16:15.9
Kahit nandod doon sa gitna ng ayungin.
16:17.9
Kasi that's the maintenance culture of the Philippine Navy.
16:22.9
Sir, I really appreciate this.
16:24.9
Kasi parating kong iniisip.
16:26.9
I give talks doon sa iba-ibang branch ng AFP.
16:29.9
Yung isang time sa mga Marines naman, sabi niya,
16:31.9
Sir, actually kami yung nagbabantay diyan.
16:34.9
O nga no, sabi ko, yeah, Marines.
16:36.9
So I was wondering,
16:37.9
ano yung kasaysayan na yung Marines ay nandun, hindi yung Philippine Navy?
16:42.9
So thank you so much for explaining that.
16:44.9
Which I think is a perfect segue, no?
16:46.9
Because the next thing I want to talk about is itong quadrilateral patrols.
16:50.9
Finally nangyayari yan.
16:51.9
Of course, may ibang mga ex-Duterte official na senador ngayon na re-electionist
16:57.9
nagtatake credit dito sa quadrilateral summit na yan.
17:01.9
Kasi na-mention daw niya last year.
17:03.9
And I was saying, actually, minimention namin lahat yan for six, seven years.
17:06.9
Dahil lang sa dating boss mo hindi nangyayari yan.
17:09.9
So it has nothing to do with you.
17:11.9
But anyway, putting aside itong mga antics ng mga ex-Duterte official,
17:14.9
now suddenly matapang na sa West Philippine Sea.
17:17.9
Anong ambag ng itong quadrilateral patrols na yan?
17:21.9
And other things na inisip natin?
17:23.9
Because let me be very honest about this.
17:26.9
I'm a little bit annoyed with the patronizing tone
17:30.9
coming from some of the American experts and officials na tulungan natin mga Pilipino,
17:34.9
kailangan nila ng joint patrols.
17:37.9
I see the point of stronger military cooperation and all.
17:40.9
Pero katulad ng sinabi niyo kanina,
17:42.9
kayang-kayang naman natin gawin yan.
17:44.9
We can fortify this on our own.
17:46.9
Mas malalaki tayong mga barko.
17:49.9
We haven't used the best of the best yet.
17:52.9
Logistically, what is your suggestion here?
17:56.9
Should the Philippines also do joint resupply with the US?
17:59.9
Should the Americans have drones in the area all the time?
18:05.9
How can our allies be more useful?
18:07.9
And how can we make sure China doesn't harass us the way they have done?
18:10.9
Kasi ang tanong ko rin dito sa inyo, Sen. Trillanes,
18:14.9
is that for a long time, from the time you did your own backdoor negotiations with China,
18:18.9
to this gentleman's agreement, etc. under Digong,
18:21.9
China has not fired a shot.
18:23.9
I mean, as far as guns go or cannons go.
18:27.9
But itong mga water canoning nila is increasingly lethal.
18:30.9
Kaya ang suggestion ko naman sa gobyerno,
18:32.9
i-compare niyo yung punching power ni Mike Tyson dun sa water cannon.
18:37.9
So people realize, lethal ito.
18:39.9
It's almost lethal.
18:40.9
So what are the options we have?
18:42.9
What is the best way for us to assert our rights there without being harassed or do it best?
18:46.9
And at the same time, make sure we get help from our allies.
18:49.9
Okay. Maraming pwedeng gawin.
18:54.9
Pero kasi intindihan natin kung ang objective ng Marcos administration is to draw international attention.
19:00.9
Kasi talagang if you charter a wooden ship, talagang bubug-bugin siya na that way.
19:08.9
But kung gusto mo ng ano, kung ipapadala mo yung white ships mo,
19:15.9
yung Coast Guard vessels mo na medyo malaki-laki,
19:18.9
eh kaya naman i-withstand yung water cannons na yun.
19:22.9
Kasi they were designed actually to withstand mga typhoons.
19:27.9
Diba? Eh yun lang, water cannon, kaya yun.
19:29.9
Ngayon, another way is pwede kayong makipagbombahan ang water cannon doon.
19:36.9
Diba? Meron din yung Coast Guard.
19:38.9
Which is what the Japanese Coast Guard did during the Senkaku standoff.
19:44.9
Pero para na kayong mga batang nagwa-water gun battle.
19:49.9
Ano yun eh, there's nothing to be achieved there.
19:53.9
Kaya nga, depende yun sa focus or focus ng Marcos administration.
19:58.9
If it's to draw international attention kung papano nang bubuli yung China,
20:04.9
well, they were able to achieve it. Diba? They were able to achieve that.
20:08.9
Kasi kung Coast Guard vessel dadali mo dyan, kahit na ano yan eh, kayang-kaya yun, barko.
20:15.9
So hindi kagano makaka-gain ng sympathy. Diba? Pero dahil doon, diba, if it's really by design,
20:25.9
itong ngayon nakadraw ka ng mga international coalition to at least help us, support us,
20:34.9
then itong namensyo mo na quad patrols, ito naman parang ano lang ito eh.
20:40.9
This is just to give China an idea na we're not alone in this. Diba?
20:46.9
Pwede yan yung freedom of navigation patrols operations. Pero malayo yan eh.
20:53.9
Pinagpatrolya nung quad doon sa Ayungin. Now, if we would send our grey ships doon sa Ayungin to resupply,
21:06.9
ano to? Kumbaga, pwede mong gawin yan, pero kailangan kakalculate mo din ano ba yung magiging response nila.
21:15.9
So pataasin ng pataas yan. Escalate ng escalate yan. So until magkakaroon ka ng standoff,
21:21.9
then doon ka ngayon. Babalik.
21:23.9
Babalik ka doon sa situation doon sa 2012 na ano yun, depende na yun sa kausap.
21:30.9
Pero I believe the back channel approach that worked in 2012 may not work this time around
21:38.9
because again of the foreign policy shift of the Xi Jinping administration,
21:47.9
which is ano na, open expansion na.
21:53.9
Parang bordering road state na sila eh. Nawala na yung belt and road economic,
22:02.9
kumbaga they were trying to charm the whole world with their economic might. Pero ito hindi na.
22:09.9
Na tipong sige, we will stand toe to toe with you on this.
22:15.9
Now, yung sinasabi natin pwede, another approach is, and I've been suggesting this,
22:22.9
pwede naman heliborne yung operations.
22:28.9
Oo. Kahit Coast Guard ship yan, may heliborne capacity yan. So magdadala sila doon 10 minutes away.
22:36.9
Ayungin, they will drop the supplies. Then ano, eventually nga pwede tayo maglagay ng helideck dyan sa BRP Sierra Madre.
22:47.9
So yung rotation, pwede rin ganon.
22:51.9
Pwede rin ganon through that.
22:53.9
So pagka ganon kasi ginawa, eh sino yung maharangan nila? Hindi nila maharang yun.
22:59.9
If they do anything aggressive towards that helicopter at mag-crush yun, iba na yun. Problema nila yun.
23:09.9
As you mentioned nga diba?
23:10.9
Tama ng mutual defense treaty yan. Because very clear ang at least Trump and Biden na any attack on our vessels,
23:15.9
aircrafts, and soldiers and personnel will activate the mutual defense treaty.
23:20.9
And kaya nga nakita mo diba as you observed, iniskirt nila yung, they're just, dun lang sa gray zone sila.
23:31.9
Kasi anything beyond the red line, magti-trigger ng mutual defense treaty. So maraming ways to resupply.
23:41.9
As I mentioned, pwede nilang gawin itong ginagawa nila. Mag-charter kayo ng wooden ship. Mukha kang underdog talaga.
23:48.9
Pero itago mo yung mga tao mo para hindi sila masasaktan. Diba?
23:53.9
Pero gusto mo nang medyo sturdy siya or all-weather ship, yung coast guard, meron silang ganyang vessels that can withstand typhoons.
24:02.9
So kayang-kaya nila yung water cannon and they can proceed. Just ignoring the water cannons of China.
24:09.9
Or they can do what the Japanese did during the Senkaku standoff. Magpotokan sila ng water cannon. Diba?
24:17.9
Or they can do the Heliborne approach. So these are just some of the ways na pwedeng gawin without escalating or the tension by the U.S.
24:31.9
Or directly involving the Americans. Kasi feeling ko medyo ahead of time, medyo advanced mag-isip yung iba na eh dapat yung kasama yung U.S. sa resupply.
24:39.9
Ako kasi ang concern ko dito is we don't want to come off as Tutankhamen or masyadong dependent sa America.
24:45.9
Because I think we're very much capable of doing that.
24:47.9
We can do this on our own. Tamang pagsabi na medyo malalaki-laki na yung mga coast guard vessels natin. Medyo matinun na rin yung ibang warships natin.
24:54.9
So in fairness kay Pinoy and throughout the past decade, medyo nag-modernize naman yung capabilities natin.
25:01.9
But siguro the U.S., do you think they should still have an over-the-horizon presence? Maybe just of regates in the area or some drone?
25:10.9
Just in case to make the Chinese think twice. I mean they have been doing that anyway but even more explicit institutionalized.
25:17.9
They have been doing that and you know why? Because ano sila? Stakeholder sila doon sa Mutual Defense Treaty.
25:24.9
Kaya binabantayan nila yung ating resupply missions because they would be able to know firsthand kung kailangan nilang i-trigger yung Mutual Defense Treaty.
25:34.9
And yun din ang pinakang guard mo against over-aggressiveness of China to the point na may masasaktan o mamamatay na Navy personnel.
25:46.9
Now let's talk about this upcoming Trilateral Summit because one of the things that is expected to be signed shortly after Trilateral Summit is a Visiting Forces Agreement style deal with Japan.
26:01.9
There's still some debate about ano talagang meron dyan. Some say it's just a reciprocal access agreement. Officially that's going to be the term, not the Visiting Forces Agreement.
26:08.9
But there is some people are saying that down the road baka ang gusto ng Japan magkaroon din ng rotational access.
26:15.9
access to some of the bases
26:18.0
in the Philippines. Now, we can have a long conversation
26:19.8
whether papasayan sa KO party
26:21.7
given the constitutionalization in Japan.
26:24.3
But it looks that's the direction of the wind
26:27.9
on bullying us. How do you feel about
26:30.0
A, itong Japan coming
26:32.1
in potentially, having more direct cooperation
26:34.0
with us? They have done very well in terms
26:36.0
of helping us in our coast guard capability.
26:38.7
Fumia Kishida, Prime Minister of Japan
26:40.0
here in the U.S. just recently said we want to be
26:41.9
a global partner of the U.S.
26:43.5
Hindi lang robbing to the Batman in Asia.
26:45.9
But a kind of a just
26:47.8
right? We want to be part of this kind of
26:49.8
a group of people helping.
26:52.1
And then pagdating sa U.S. naman,
26:54.0
I think it's unavoidable to talk about this.
26:56.3
What do you think BBM
26:57.9
should do on the Taiwan question?
27:00.1
Because I think a big priority for
27:01.7
Biden would be to essentially
27:03.7
get the Philippines on board on
27:05.6
any Taiwan deterrence
27:07.7
strategy. And probably part
27:09.7
of that would be more American
27:11.6
presence on the northern bases natin. Hindi lang
27:13.6
kagaya ni Sabela, maybe in Batanes.
27:15.9
What is your read on also the
27:17.7
Taiwan angle and also Japan
27:19.8
coming in? And of course, Japan also has an interest
27:21.8
in Taiwan. So itong trilateral,
27:24.0
big part of that is also Taiwan as much
27:25.7
as it is West Philippine Sea.
27:29.3
correctly observed,
27:31.4
this is mainly for deterrence.
27:35.6
the Philippines' involvement
27:39.1
potential Taiwan conflict,
27:41.9
I think we are already
27:44.2
You tweet the ad,
27:50.7
mode, ando dyan na yan.
27:54.8
year, fully operational na yan.
27:57.3
Yan yun, yun yung deterrence
27:58.8
or at least it will help
28:02.7
twice or thrice before
28:04.6
crossing that red line.
28:07.0
Kasi meron nang magsusupport
28:08.7
ng any upsurge in
28:10.7
military operations
28:15.9
yung Visiting Forces Agreement with Japan,
28:18.7
so ibig sabihin, as a partner nga,
28:20.6
kasi we have to understand,
28:26.5
medyo stretched na sila,
28:29.3
some of the surface
28:33.2
Japan. So para lang
28:36.0
masanay kung magpapatrol dito,
28:39.9
protection sa kanilang
28:42.2
mga troops through this
28:43.7
Visiting Forces Agreement. And remember,
28:45.9
for Japan, bago pa lang ito
28:51.6
period niya ito. Kasi dati, diba,
28:54.3
Japan, maritime defense
28:56.3
force lang sila, so internal
28:57.8
lang sila. So ngayon lang sila
28:59.5
naglumalabas ulit.
29:02.0
Venture outside their
29:03.7
EEZ and territorial
29:05.7
waters. So kailangan nilang
29:09.6
matrain yung kanilang mga
29:15.2
operations with other
29:17.2
navies. Diba? Para malaman nila
29:19.3
yung mga replenishment at sea
29:21.5
at iba't ibang evolutions
29:28.6
Operational capacity building.
29:33.1
kailangan nila ng
29:37.0
Meron yan. Meron allied
29:38.8
tactical procedures yan.
29:41.2
Yung mga flags, yung mga
29:42.7
symbols. Kailangan nilang
29:45.1
gawin yan. Although parang
29:46.7
antiquated na yung gano'ng approach, but
29:51.3
na magkakaroon ng
29:53.0
mag-shutdown yung inyong
30:01.3
meron pa rin kayo ng basics
30:08.9
Magbe-benefit yung Japan dan, at
30:10.9
magbe-benefit din yung Pilipinas dito.
30:12.8
We're not being drawn into any
30:17.1
Ang ginagawa lang natin,
30:19.0
if somebody needs help,
30:20.9
historically, yung Pilipinas
30:22.7
nagre-responde. In the same
30:25.1
vein, nung tayo naman nangilangan
30:26.9
ng tulong, tinulungan
30:29.1
din naman tayo. Eto lang, we just
30:31.1
recently celebrated yung
30:35.2
ng kagitingan. Maalala
30:38.4
na-occupy na tayo ng Japan,
30:46.4
the Philippines and go direct to
30:48.6
the islands closer
30:52.3
then, it was through the
30:58.6
Douglas MacArthur na tipong,
31:00.6
teka, kinumit natin na palayain
31:02.8
yung mga Pilipino.
31:06.4
Along with Australians.
31:07.8
Along with Australians and New Zealanders,
31:10.8
et cetera. Basta tinulungan tayo.
31:14.5
ganun lang yun. That's how
31:19.5
Hindi yung parang
31:20.6
ayaw mo conflict avoidance ka.
31:23.3
Therefore, hindi ka sasama
31:25.0
sa mga kahit na anong
31:26.2
pero pagka ikaw nangailangan ng tulong,
31:29.7
paano kang ngayon sasaklolo?
31:31.2
Diba? So, ganun lang yun.
31:32.9
And hopefully, hindi tayo darating doon
31:34.9
precisely. Pag nakita
31:36.9
nung China na, teka,
31:38.9
it's not going to be a quick
31:41.0
war that you anticipate.
31:43.0
It's going to be,
31:53.4
specific, son, that I completely agree with you,
31:56.3
Senator, in the sense that
31:57.4
hindi pwede yung hingi lang tayo nang hingi.
31:59.3
It's a give and take relationship.
32:01.9
Having said that, maybe
32:03.1
we have a slight divergence of opinion here.
32:05.5
Ako naman, ang issue ko lang
32:07.5
kasi dito is, you know, I look at
32:09.5
Jordan, Egypt, Pakistan,
32:11.6
never mind Israel or Ukraine.
32:13.4
All of these countries have,
32:17.2
significant amount of
32:18.9
very advanced American weapon systems.
32:21.7
Egypt, for instance, or even
32:23.5
Jordan, they all have F-16
32:27.7
Again, I don't know,
32:29.2
I don't want to come out like mendicant or something like that,
32:32.7
thing ko is, what should Marcos push for
32:35.5
here? Should they push for some
32:37.4
kasi wala pa tayong mga multi-role
32:39.5
vessels, sorry, multi-role
32:41.2
fighters and the warships
32:43.5
na we have the modern one na napuntahan
32:45.4
kung BRP Rizal, mga ganun. Purong Korean
32:47.5
made yan, diba? Some of the strategic
32:49.4
weapon systems we're getting are Indian.
32:51.2
The Brahmos, which has Russian derivative,
32:53.4
Soviet derivative. Ang tanong ko
32:55.6
dito is, should BBM
32:57.2
aggressively push for Americans to
32:59.6
give us much better terms
33:01.5
for some of the things that we really need
33:03.6
para hindi lang tayo hanggang nagbibigay
33:05.5
lang ng basing access, hindi lang rentier
33:08.9
should be also a capable ally which can
33:11.5
project power and help in international
33:13.5
public goods provision,
33:15.5
anti-piracy, etc.
33:17.2
How much we should focus on also
33:19.6
getting Japan and US to accelerate
33:21.3
our AFP modernization, which we
33:23.5
discussed in the last meeting, yung
33:24.9
36 billion dollar 10-year program?
33:29.7
agree with you, Richard, on that
33:31.5
one. Hindi naman pwedeng
33:33.6
masadong bargain,
33:37.0
na kailangan din natin
33:39.5
yung tulong. Mutual itong
33:41.0
tulungan natin, pero,
33:43.5
kung gusto nyo mas makatulong kami
33:45.8
ng mas maayos, edi
33:47.8
iyaano nyo, kumagay
33:49.7
upgrade nila yung ating
33:51.0
weapon systems. Alam mong problema lang kasi
33:57.7
when I was dealing
34:01.0
US government officials in Washington
34:04.8
pagiging compromise nung
34:07.5
panahon ni Duterte
34:08.7
na if you're entrusted
34:13.5
US military weapon systems.
34:15.3
Pagpapunta sa China.
34:18.1
Kaya yun yung issue
34:22.1
mabigat kasi yung the countries that you
34:24.5
mentioned, may mga
34:26.3
nagkaroon sila ng access sa mga
34:28.3
US weapon systems because
34:30.3
they have already demonstrated na
34:33.7
safeguard mechanisms na hindi
34:35.9
basta-basta ma-compromise
34:38.6
yung mga military secrets sila.
34:43.5
pero tama ka yung mga basic platforms
34:47.1
mahasalang yung mga
34:50.2
AFP personnel natin
34:52.5
dun sa mga more modern
34:55.9
Sabi ko nga, kahit sa
34:57.5
Navy, yung mga dinikomission nila
34:59.9
mga Oliver Hazard
35:01.8
Perry class na frigates,
35:04.0
ano yun? Pwedeng lagyan ng
35:05.6
platforms? In the same way na
35:07.5
binigay nila sa Taiwan, di ba?
35:12.1
missile system. So wala na.
35:13.5
Wala na po compromise sa
35:14.5
weapon systems nila pero
35:16.9
naano natin? Nagkakaroon tayo
35:21.0
para to train yung ating
35:23.3
mga personnel. Yung
35:25.3
mga ano rin, yung sinasabi mga
35:27.3
multi-role fighters
35:31.6
yung mga piloto natin. Anyway,
35:33.8
dito na tayo yung mga Korean
35:35.2
jet fighters. Maganda yan
35:37.3
pero parang entry level yan.
35:39.0
O, transitional talaga eh.
35:43.5
Pero, di ba? Dito na tayo kung
35:45.5
medyo maganda-gandang
35:48.3
bakbakan. Eh, kahit
35:50.3
pa paano. Hindi naman
35:51.9
kawawa-kawawa yung mga piloto natin.
35:54.4
So, pwedeng i-demand yan
35:57.1
Marcos administration.
36:00.1
But I think, pinipaste naman nila.
36:02.2
I think eventually they will get there.
36:05.6
remember, this situation
36:08.1
that we're in was
36:10.0
not planned from the
36:13.5
Opo ni President Marcos.
36:15.7
Kung hindi, it was forced
36:17.5
on him by the circumstances
36:19.4
because ipinush away
36:21.6
siya ng China, basically.
36:23.4
Kaya, ito lang ngayon. They're doing things
36:27.0
kahit pa paano, nakakahabol
36:29.5
and eventually, yun na nga.
36:31.3
Yung parity naman. Huwag naman
36:33.3
yung tulungan nyo kami.
36:35.5
Sabi nga doon sa ano, di ba?
36:36.7
Help me, help you.
36:39.4
Kay Tom Cruz at siya kasi
36:42.1
Help me, help you.
36:46.6
That's one of my favorite expressions, right?
36:48.4
Kaya, you want the Philippines
36:49.8
not to be just like a bigay ng basing
36:51.6
agreement, mga ganon. You know, we want us
36:53.7
to be able to also project ourselves.
36:55.3
Kasi, we're increasingly getting, just last
36:57.5
one on this foreign policy before we go to the meat
36:59.6
of discussion, more Duterte and
37:01.5
ICC and your favorite, our
37:07.3
For me, kasi strategic investments, I think, is
37:09.5
also very important. So, the other week na sa
37:11.5
Germany kami, na mitin namin si Chancellor
37:13.3
Scholz, you know, he gathered some of the
37:14.9
thought leaders from the Global South, Brazil,
37:17.5
South Africa, et cetera. And one of the things
37:19.4
I said is, naintindihan ko na meron
37:21.5
kayong business interest. You know, when you go to a
37:23.3
country, Benz, BMW, whatever,
37:25.4
you're looking at events environment.
37:27.5
But at the end of the day, parang
37:29.4
talent scouting yan, di ba? Pag magaling
37:31.2
kang talent scout, hindi ka mag-invest lang
37:33.3
dun sa mga players na mature na
37:35.4
kagad. May mga players na medyo may
37:37.4
mga kulang here and there,
37:39.3
but you see a long-term
37:40.5
vision, there are long-term talents.
37:43.3
Mag-invest ka dun. And I said Philippines is kind of like
37:45.3
that in the sense that may mga kulang
37:47.4
tayo in terms of investment, environment
37:49.6
and all. But you see, all the investments
37:51.6
are going to Vietnam. You think Vietnam
37:53.5
is going to side with the West against China?
37:55.7
No, they have their own interest, right?
37:57.6
They're putting a lot of investment in Malaysia
37:59.6
whose leader, Anwar Ibrahim,
38:01.5
is like the new Duterte of ASEAN
38:03.4
in terms of lawyering for ASEAN. He was
38:05.1
here in Berkeley a few months ago and
38:07.1
saying, hindi ka makatulad ng Pilipinas.
38:09.6
We are friendly. China is a friend.
38:11.5
Don't be China-phobic. Like,
38:13.3
ito ang problema sa West.
38:14.8
They talk about shared values,
38:17.0
rules-based order, and then they put all the
38:18.8
money in countries that are, frankly,
38:21.1
a lot of them are opportunistic if not pro-China.
38:23.2
Even India. Aminin natin,
38:25.1
India is, you know, one day
38:27.0
they get warrants from Russia, one day
38:28.9
they're friendly with Biden. Those are
38:30.9
not reliable partners, to be honest about it,
38:32.9
if you want to talk about rules-based order. So,
38:35.0
para sa akin, mahalaga din na magkaroon ng strategic
38:36.9
investments in the Philippines. Kasi alam natin,
38:39.4
a lot of the propaganda
38:41.2
of the Makapili Club, diba?
38:43.3
Is, pag China tayo,
38:45.1
magkakaroon tayo ng high-speed railway
38:47.0
investment. Obviously, hindi nangyari sa panon
38:49.0
ni Digong, but they'll blame BBM for that.
38:51.7
So, I think it's important na
38:52.9
may bigay din ang mga Amerikano
38:55.1
and mga Japon. In fairness, mga Japon
38:56.9
naman, it's not like they haven't done much. They have
38:58.9
done a lot also in the Philippines. But, there has
39:00.9
to be those kind of investments, semiconductors,
39:03.9
things that make it
39:05.0
easier for BBM to say, see,
39:06.9
dito na tayo tataya. Hindi nga tayo binubuli.
39:09.2
Tinutulungan pa tayo. Bakit tayo doon sa
39:10.9
China, hihingi sila ng kapalit.
39:13.3
Halimbawa sa China, I mean, whoever thinks
39:15.4
with China, you talk nice to them, you'll get
39:17.1
everything. They don't know what they're talking about.
39:21.1
ako naman, just to
39:24.8
Marcos administration. Remember,
39:27.2
nung six years ni Duterte,
39:30.4
the investors from
39:32.9
EU, US, lahat, because of
39:35.2
the human rights violations.
39:37.5
Talagang nag-shut off
39:38.6
yung foreign direct
39:41.2
investments. Now, under the
39:43.2
new administration, inobserbahan
39:45.6
nila eh. Ano ba ito? Is this
39:47.3
the continuation of the Duterte
39:49.2
administration? Nung nakikita nilang
39:51.4
uy, medyo okay, medyo
39:55.4
year, they decided
39:56.9
na tipong, I think
39:59.3
it's safe now. Kumaga, it's a green
40:01.3
light. Ngayon pa lang nila
40:03.4
sinasabi yung pwede kayong
40:05.1
pumasok. Yung mga ano nila,
40:07.4
mga ambassadors nila dito, economic
40:11.5
nakikita nila na medyo okay
40:13.2
niya yung Pilipinas. Ano lang,
40:15.7
last year lang, probably
40:17.5
the second half of last year.
40:19.3
Kaya, doon pa lang nila hinihikayat.
40:21.9
Doon pa lang sila nagsisend
40:23.2
ng positive signals sa ating
40:27.5
mga negosyante. But then,
40:30.1
ito nga, inaantay pa rin nila.
40:32.0
Tapos, isa pang signal yung
40:33.3
kay Senator Laila Dilima,
40:35.4
tapos itong potential
40:41.4
parang enticements.
40:43.2
It's for investors to
40:45.1
come in. Pero mga ano yan,
40:47.1
a few years down the road
40:49.2
pa malalasap ng Pilipino yan.
40:51.2
Yeah, you have to really regain their trust
40:53.0
and confidence. I think this is very important.
40:54.8
The Duterte legacy, we keep on forgetting.
40:57.1
I had a EU person coming to
40:59.1
me saying, he was very
41:01.1
shocked na one day, hausap nila
41:03.2
yung people in finance. Hindi ko naman sabihin
41:05.0
sino, pero medyo malalaking tawag nung
41:06.9
panahon ni Digong. And sabi nila,
41:08.6
bahala kayo dyan, andyan naman yung China.
41:10.9
And they were shocked. How naive,
41:13.2
naive you are. Like, saan yung investment
41:15.2
ng China, purong pledge lang, di ba?
41:17.1
Pledge drop. And what, anong
41:19.1
klaseng matinong bansa, mag-isip na
41:21.1
dun lang tayo sa isang bansa, di ba?
41:23.6
You will have no leverage,
41:25.2
right? So, maraming
41:27.3
na shock, including Europeans, with the
41:29.0
amount of naivety and aggressive
41:31.2
I'll be honest, stupidity
41:33.0
of some of the supposedly smart
41:35.0
officials ng panahon ni Digong. And they come
41:37.1
to me and say, Richard, sino ito?
41:39.0
Mga ito, akala namin, mga technocrats, mga ito.
41:40.8
So, ewan ko dyan, in Department of
41:43.2
Finance nga, binabash pa nga ako dati, may mga
41:45.0
press release pa sila. Like, it was
41:47.2
that bad during Digong na
41:48.9
even the sound of technocratic people
41:51.1
were playing politics talaga, DDS
41:53.3
propaganda nonsense. Now,
41:55.1
essentially, as...
41:56.0
I forgot to mention
42:01.6
Early on, there's a secret deal.
42:03.1
Bakit ganun lopsided? Di ba? Bakit
42:05.2
bigay ng bigay si Duterte?
42:09.2
compromised siya.
42:11.3
Okay? Nagbigay sa kanya,
42:13.2
during the campaign,
42:15.6
tapos, ito, ang daming
42:19.0
projects na kumikita sila.
42:22.1
they have to, yan yung
42:25.2
pag-reciprocate nila.
42:27.0
Kasi kumikita sila, eh.
42:28.9
Compromised masyado yan, yung department
42:31.1
officials na sinasabi mo na yan.
42:33.7
I may have an idea
42:35.4
who you're referring to, pero
42:37.0
kasama yan dun sa sindikato nila
42:43.2
Na talagang binigay nila.
42:45.7
They twisted the arms
42:48.7
businessmen just to
42:54.4
needed. So, nakuha nila, pati
42:56.9
franchise, pati yung access
42:58.8
sa mga bases, lahat-lahat.
43:01.3
Yun, yun. Yun ang reason
43:03.8
compromised yung kanilang
43:07.0
foreign policy is because
43:08.6
kumita sila na malaki.
43:11.1
Very good point. I mean, I would say even
43:13.2
to be nice, I think the whole
43:14.6
shadow of Chinese investment
43:16.5
structured, diba, yung tapang
43:19.1
nila. Kasi hindi, sayang, baka may investment.
43:21.1
But, of course, you're implying, maybe it's not
43:22.9
just that. Maybe it's a bit more
43:24.8
than that. But, to be fair to
43:26.8
Neda Secretary Pernia,
43:28.9
I think one reason he resigned,
43:30.8
walang masyado mga kabinat sa kanya. I think it's
43:32.8
because hindi talaga siya natutuwa
43:34.7
sa takbo ng mga bagay-bagay
43:36.9
sa ilan ng Duterte administration. Quiet pa rin
43:38.8
si Pernia. I think he
43:41.0
has a story to tell, hopefully one day.
43:43.2
Alaman natin. Kasi alam niya yung mga kalukuhan
43:44.9
ng China, eh. Yung mga investments.
43:47.1
Kasi, from what I understand,
43:48.9
ang dami mga pledges, and then papunta yung
43:50.8
Neda natin sa Beijing, wala pala, eh.
43:53.3
Hanggang na nilang, boka-boka lang.
43:54.9
So, you wonder, ano ba yung enticement
43:56.9
talaga ng China? Is it really big-ticket
43:58.8
investments or, well, something else?
44:01.0
But, before going
44:02.8
there, I want to talk about Sara Duterte
44:05.0
because, no comment.
44:07.6
Why would the Vice President
44:09.0
of the Republic, who has everything
44:11.0
to say about Afghan
44:13.2
refugees coming in, about conflict
44:14.9
in Gaza and Israel, about, I don't know.
44:17.5
She has statement
44:19.0
on everything, except
44:20.9
pag binabuli tayo ng China sa
44:22.9
West Philippine Sea. Tapos pumasok pa si
44:25.0
pulong sa usapan. What's going
44:27.1
on there, Senator Silianes?
44:29.9
Well, doon mo makikita.
44:31.0
We don't need to be rocket
44:33.1
scientists to figure out kung
44:34.6
nasaan yung puso ni Sara Duterte.
44:37.5
Ayaw niyang, diba, if you
44:40.8
compromise yourself, diba,
44:43.2
might as well not say anything.
44:45.4
Kasi if she says something
44:47.2
positive for China, iba ba
44:51.3
sabihin naman niya, magsabi naman siya
44:53.2
ng negative about China,
44:55.5
eh, compromised na rin sila eh.
44:57.8
Diba? So, ando doon na yung
44:59.1
kanilang loyalty and commitment.
45:02.0
So, ang gawin na lang, mag-no comment
45:03.6
ka na lang and try to,
45:05.2
ano, parang, and hope
45:07.4
that this issue will
45:09.3
blow away or ma-redirect
45:11.7
yung attention to us.
45:13.2
Other people. Pero hanggang kailan
45:14.9
siya magtatago sa ganyan. Diba?
45:17.6
O, yun ang problema. And sana,
45:19.3
makita naman nung mga kababayan natin
45:23.1
na-compromise sila as a family.
45:28.9
Well, may sinabi si Pulong na don't
45:31.1
demonize China. So, parang, hmm,
45:33.0
interesting yung mga ganito. Parang
45:34.9
China pang victim. Kawawa naman
45:37.1
ang China, dinidemonize natin.
45:38.9
Wala naman silang ginagawa eh. Binibigyan tayo
45:41.0
ng libreng, ano, eh, ligo. Diba?
45:43.2
So, I mean, I just find, siguro naman,
45:45.5
siguro, okay, ganito, I'll ask
45:47.4
you, sir, point blank. Do you think
45:49.3
China made a bad investment?
45:53.4
well, masasabi mo
45:55.4
good investment kasi six
45:57.4
years, they had a
45:59.4
grand time dito sa
46:01.2
Pilipinas. Diba? Nagkamali
46:06.6
President Marcos will be
46:09.3
as the same as Duterte.
46:11.3
In fact, pati yung mga pink ang
46:13.2
assumption is the same, eh.
46:15.0
Kaya nga sabi ko, tega, gamali tayo
46:17.1
dito. We need to accept
46:20.1
President Marcos is different
46:25.2
and that is a good thing.
46:28.1
siguro, yung, yun nga, kung investment
46:31.3
nila nila, napakinabangan nila
46:33.2
for six years, now they don't have
46:35.1
any other choice. They still
46:37.2
believe that Sara Duterte can
46:44.7
si President Marcos
46:49.2
bo-bombahan nila yan, bo-buhusin nila
46:52.0
ipapanalo nila through that.
46:54.9
Kung baga, they will have to keep
46:57.1
on hoping that their
46:58.9
investments eventually will
47:01.1
be recooked. Diba?
47:03.2
Yeah, speaking of
47:04.3
libreng paligo at
47:06.9
mabango at gwapo at presko,
47:10.0
the Turfos are doing
47:10.9
very well, diba? So, ang ngayon, confirm na,
47:13.0
at least two surveys are showing Rafi Tulfo
47:15.0
is now the frontrunner, although
47:16.5
it's quite close in the Pulse Asia
47:18.8
one because of the Mindanao numbers.
47:20.6
70 plus are just with Sara. Kunti lang
47:22.4
support kay Rafi so far. So, maybe that opens
47:24.8
up conversation about sinong dapat
47:26.8
VP niya down the road.
47:30.8
survey, for instance, we had Professor Ranjit
47:32.9
ride the other day here on our show
47:34.7
when we talk about, nung pinasok
47:36.9
si Ben Tulfo, nag-number four si Ben,
47:38.9
si Erwin still at number one, although went down.
47:40.9
This is crazy levels. I mean,
47:42.8
of course, Dutertes are not doing too
47:44.8
bad in the surveys. Sara is still
47:46.6
statistically tied for first, or at least
47:48.6
second in surveys. Pulong and Bastar
47:51.0
are within range. Tigong is still
47:52.9
top five. So, I'm not saying
47:54.9
laos na ang mga Duterte, but
47:56.6
clearly, the Tulfos are the new force here.
47:59.5
Ikaw, bilang isang
48:02.4
Sir Sani, anong pang-intindihan mo
48:05.3
abandoned warehouse
48:08.6
kaya kaupan kasi ginagaya
48:10.6
ng kasama ka dito si Ben Tulfo?
48:12.8
Good. Kita tayo sa abandoned
48:16.7
nabasa mo dito, Sir
48:19.8
Well, I think it's yung
48:22.1
na-mention nyo, I think in
48:24.5
one of your episodes, yung
48:26.8
the Tulfo brand, diba?
48:29.2
Yun na ngayon yung parang
48:32.7
titignan mo, yung
48:34.2
Tulfo brand is a modification
48:38.7
tested formula of yung
48:40.8
yung public survey
48:44.8
let's say yung dati, yung
48:46.3
si kina Eddie Ilarde pa,
48:48.4
kina Orly Mercado,
48:50.7
yung nag-a-address sila, may
48:52.4
tatawag na mga hinahing na mga
48:54.4
kababayan natin, then sila,
48:56.5
they will address it,
48:59.1
they will call the
49:00.2
agencies na para mabigay yun,
49:02.9
or minsan, sila mismo nabibigay.
49:04.9
Ganon yun eh. Tapos,
49:06.4
ginawa rin yun, another modification,
49:10.4
kumpanyero, yung legal advice
49:12.8
approach naman, ginawa rin nila
49:14.0
cheese yun. So, ganon yung ano,
49:16.5
pero itong mga Tulfo,
49:18.5
medyo ano sa kanila, yung
49:19.7
the macho type, diba?
49:22.3
Which is always pumapatok
49:24.6
sa Filipino voters.
49:26.9
Early on, meron kami yung
49:28.3
Erap, si Erap, ano yan,
49:30.2
President Erap, ganyan din yun.
49:32.0
Macho cowboy type.
49:34.1
Fred Lim, o si Fred Lim,
49:36.0
yung ano to, parang
49:38.5
Dirty Harry type.
49:40.2
Then you have Duterte. So, kumbaga,
49:44.6
Actually, parang isang mukha lang siya,
49:46.6
nagkaroon lang ng mga modification.
49:48.6
Variations on the team.
49:50.5
Variations, oo. So, yung
49:52.2
from the earlier, Orly Mercado,
49:55.2
Eddie Ilarde approach,
49:57.2
yan yun, yung kila
50:00.4
Rafi Tulfo, Erwin Tulfo,
50:02.9
yan, ganyan. Tapos,
50:04.8
may konting aksyon na, kasi
50:06.3
nagre-raid sila, ganon.
50:10.7
nakita ko yung mga
50:12.8
mga pumipila talaga doon
50:14.5
kina Senator Rafi.
50:16.5
Talagang, they're pinning their hopes
50:22.3
lahat ng, kunyari,
50:24.2
hindi na-feature sa TV,
50:26.9
pero tinutulungan pa rin nila.
50:29.3
So, maraming natutulungan
50:31.0
behind the scenes.
50:32.7
Kaya, kumalat ng kumalat yung
50:37.8
And, yan na ngayon.
50:40.3
I believe that's going to hold
50:45.3
So, yun naman yun.
50:46.6
Kaso, may natural
50:49.2
termination siya.
50:52.5
everybody gets old eh.
50:54.8
At some point, di ba?
50:56.7
Then, may bagong uso, may bagong ano.
50:58.9
So, ganoon lang yun. It comes in
51:04.1
yun. Weather-weather lang,
51:06.7
sabi nga ni Sir Errol.
51:08.7
Ni President Errol.
51:12.8
I'm offended na you didn't mention Robin Hood Padilla.
51:15.8
this one of Robin Hood Padilla.
51:17.5
Actually, the interesting thing we see in the
51:19.2
Paul Secha service conversation about
51:22.9
And, Robin Hood is not doing too well.
51:24.3
I think he's even lower than Aimee Marcos.
51:26.0
The one that comes out very strongly for VP
51:30.2
Uh, she's way ahead of everyone else at around 35%.
51:33.3
So, with statistical margins, she could go all the way up to 40% almost, no?
51:38.0
Are you surprised with Grace Poe still doing very well?
51:40.5
Because, let's not forget 2016, Grace Poe at some point, you know, she's still doing very well.
51:40.8
Because, let's not forget 2016, Grace Poe at some point, you know, she's still doing very well.
51:40.9
Because, let's not forget 2016, Grace Poe at some point,
51:43.0
was seen as a frontrunner.
51:44.7
The citizen issue came up, came about.
51:47.0
And, Duterte took advantage of that.
51:48.4
Obviously, he took advantage of all of yung awa yung tatlo na yan.
51:50.9
B9 versus Marr versus Poe.
51:53.9
Do you think Grace Poe could also be a factor in 2020?
51:57.1
Kasi parang kinansel siya ng mga dilawan,
51:59.4
for the lack of better term.
52:00.9
Because, biniblame siya for Marr's loss.
52:02.6
Although, I have big questions with that claim.
52:05.2
Based on second, third preferences.
52:07.0
What is your read on the Grace Poe?
52:08.2
Because, Poe is also a form of populism, right?
52:10.9
Grace Poe is more than just a populist carrying her father's name.
52:17.7
just for, ano, full disclosure,
52:21.3
we were supporting Senator Grace Poe back in 2016.
52:25.0
Yeah, but that's not what I'm asking.
52:26.5
Yeah, and like you,
52:28.2
we don't agree with that,
52:30.5
yung sinasabi nilang,
52:32.4
iyan siya ang reason kung ba't natalo si, ano,
52:36.6
hindi talaga ganon.
52:38.2
Kung nag-withdraw man si Senator Grace Poe from the,
52:40.7
from the Presidency,
52:42.3
tataas lang ang lamang ni Duterte over Marrojas.
52:46.5
Because, iba talaga yung, yung, ano nila,
52:51.1
yung gusto nila, no?
52:53.5
So, anyway, what's done is done.
52:55.9
Ngayon, nakikita ko, ang idea nila is,
52:59.0
if they are going to push for Rafi Tulfo for President,
53:05.8
siguro magandang parisa ng somebody nice.
53:09.2
And, ano, alam mo yun,
53:10.5
mga babae na tipong, very, ano siya?
53:15.0
Oo, parang nasa-offen yung image.
53:17.8
Siguro yun yung compliment na naiisip nila.
53:20.6
And at the same time, palagay ko na na-exposed na rin
53:24.8
yung, kumbaga yung myth na when they elected people like
53:30.7
Aimee Marcos sa Vice Presidency,
53:33.9
ngayon nakita nila na may mga aspetong kulang.
53:39.4
And in the case ni Aimee Marcos,
53:42.1
because of the open war between the Marcoses and the Dutertes,
53:46.6
siya yung casualty.
53:48.1
And tinatamaan din talaga yung numbers niya all around.
53:52.8
And we're getting similar results in our internal survey.
53:58.1
Let's now go to the last but most important part of our episode.
54:01.4
Pag-usapan naman natin ang opposition
54:02.9
because Lenny still ends up at number three
54:06.3
dun sa Policy Issues Survey for 2020.
54:09.2
I mean, we can have a lot of conversation about it,
54:11.0
but it looks like Lenny is still being considered
54:13.5
as the standard bearer for the opposition should 2020 come.
54:17.6
What does that say?
54:18.3
Because for me, one thing I found interesting in the OCTA research is
54:22.1
one of their researches was about political affiliation.
54:25.3
So nung tinignan nila,
54:27.7
31% is with BBM camp, Loyalista.
54:32.1
20% is with the Duterte camp.
54:34.2
Although I'm shocked na may 1% pa rin ng mga Ilohanos supporting Dutertes.
54:38.9
sino ito mga Ilocano niya?
54:40.0
I don't see that in bag.
54:40.9
Siguro mga taga-dabao na Ilocano yan.
54:44.4
Kasi meron siyang sub-regional, di ba?
54:46.1
So I go, hmm, sino ito mga 1% niya?
54:49.4
Patawagin ko nga yung ano mo diyan,
54:50.9
mga nasa Ilocasol note.
54:52.5
So that was a very interesting survey.
54:54.7
I found it very, very helpful.
54:56.2
Kasi makikita mo,
54:57.0
believable yung mga sub-demographics din eh.
55:00.0
And then, 4% traditional opposition,
55:02.4
my understanding is probably Liberal Party to.
55:04.1
And then, 45% either undecided,
55:08.9
independent, up for grabs.
55:11.0
Hindi ba parang good news yan, Sen. Trillianes,
55:13.6
that there's just so much more out there
55:15.9
that we can explore in terms of mobilizing na
55:18.5
hindi benta mga Dutertes sa kanila,
55:20.9
hindi benta mga Marcoses sa kanila.
55:23.2
I suppose that will also reflect on the Tulfo brand and all.
55:26.3
So there's a large constituency that is still not mobilized.
55:29.9
And perhaps, maybe that should be the conversation for the opposition.
55:32.9
Kasi kanina, purong ibang pinag-usapan natin.
55:34.7
Let's now talk about the option for the opposition.
55:38.2
Not the digong opposition.
55:40.0
While you may have seen the numbers of Lenny Robredo
55:47.9
na medyo significant at 11,
55:50.2
but ako naman, ang nakita ko ron,
55:52.9
from 28% just 2 years ago,
55:56.9
because hindi niya kinonsolidate at pinabayaan basically yung base na yun,
56:04.9
So I'm not seeing na parang it's a strong opposition.
56:08.2
It's a strong 11, but no, pababa yun, from 28 yun eh.
56:13.1
And that's the same thing that happened in 2016.
56:15.9
She got 33% of the vote,
56:18.8
but then when she decided to run for president,
56:21.8
she only was, I think, 6 or 7.
56:24.8
So inayahan mo nang bumaba ng bumaba.
56:27.7
And ganoon na naman nangyayari dito.
56:29.6
Kaya I believe, kailangan na natin talagang magbago ng liderato,
56:38.1
and si Sen. Riza is very much ready to assume that leadership role
56:43.8
if only itong si Vice President Lenny would openly, categorically, and definitively say,
56:54.8
Sen. Riza, ikaw na, hindi na ako tatakbo.
56:60.0
And she can ask the pollsters to strike her name off any 2020,
57:08.1
at least for president.
57:10.2
Yan eh kung totoong ayaw niya na or hindi na siya interesado tumakbo for president.
57:17.5
Kasi kung interesado ka naman pala, then do the legwork, di ba?
57:24.6
Magtrabaho ka, i-consolidate mo yung pinagkatiwalaan tayo ng 2028.
57:30.5
Siya, in for a front matter, pinagkatiwalaan siya ng 2022,
57:34.2
ng 28% of the people.
57:38.1
Kung i-consolidate mo, tapos do the other necessary preparation,
57:43.7
para kung 2028, eh di, she will win.
57:48.1
Pero kung ganun ulit na style na tipong,
57:51.3
teka muna, mabahala na muna kay John, I'll just go around the world muna,
57:55.2
mag-chill muna ako, teka muna, what about the problems of the country?
58:02.1
Di ba, hindi naman natapos yung problema ng bansa nung natalo siya.
58:09.7
Did she stop caring about the problems of the country?
58:13.8
So, ano yung mga leadership traits na dinidisplay niya dito?
58:19.7
Or lack thereof, di ba?
58:21.9
Ngayon, sabi ko nga, kung talagang wala naman ng plano,
58:24.8
eh di, definitively sabihin mo na, hindi na ako talaga tatakbo,
58:29.4
final na yan, Senator Riza, good luck, I will help you,
58:32.8
I will turn over.
58:34.0
So, she'll do a second passing down the, like, talagang, eto na talaga.
58:37.3
Si Riza, by the way.
58:38.1
Should she remind everyone that Riza is the opposite?
58:42.7
Kasi yung unang passing of the baton, ano yun eh, merong hangover pa eh.
58:48.9
People were still clinging on to that image of Eleni Robredo presidency.
58:56.3
Kaya hindi pa nagsink in noong time na yun.
58:58.5
Tsaka hindi siya widely disseminated.
59:01.6
Pero kung gagawin niya ito ulit, definitively, ano no,
59:04.6
then mas ano yun, mas ma-appreciate yun.
59:08.0
Anong tao, okay, we'll move on na from Eleni, Riza it is,
59:12.1
then let's start rallying around Senator Riza.
59:16.9
And I think that's the only hope for the independent opposition
59:24.6
to have a chance in 2028.
59:28.1
And again, just to be fair here, siguro ang tingin ko is,
59:32.1
there are people, I'm not saying Lenny, but maybe there are strategists of her who are saying,
59:38.0
um, strategic ambiguity, if I can put it that way.
59:41.4
Para siyang yung sa West Philippine si Paul is,
59:43.3
let's have a strategic ambiguity, let's see what she does.
59:46.0
If 2025, she wins, she wins a local government office, and then she does well,
59:50.8
then who knows, maybe she'll be in that position.
59:53.0
What you're saying is that, neither nor, neither here nor there is kind of a sub-optimal for everyone.
59:59.1
Because it doesn't allow for Riza to step up,
60:01.2
it also doesn't necessarily put her in the best position to, to get the ball rolling for 2028.
60:06.6
Because we, we can say, Sara is already,
60:08.0
already in a campaign mode in one way or another.
60:11.0
Rafi's already doing that, although he's not directly attacking Sara.
60:14.1
But clearly, we see what Rafi's strategy is.
60:16.5
Don't talk about Sara, make sure that you do your part well.
60:19.5
And that, that strategy is working wonders for Rafi Tulfo so far,
60:22.6
from ilang percent lang siya nung two years ago, di ba?
60:25.1
Ngayon, 35, magpo-40 percent na siya.
60:27.5
So, so what you're saying is that this, neither here nor there,
60:31.3
medyo mali-late na tayo, even though some would say,
60:33.9
hindi, malayo pa naman ng 2028 eh, masyado naman kayong atat,
60:37.1
masyado kayong advance magkakataon.
60:37.8
Mas mag-isip kayong dalawa eh.
60:40.0
Well, yung ambiguous approach na yan,
60:42.7
yan yung ginawa nila nung 20, in the lead up to 2022, di ba?
60:48.7
Look at what happened to us.
60:50.5
Kung nag-e-expect ka ng, ng different result, di ba?
60:54.2
Dapat, teka muna, the same approach, different result,
60:58.2
medyo may problema tayo dyan.
61:00.0
Tapos ang, sabi ko nga, ma-equate ko yan dun sa ano eh,
61:04.1
sa no comment ni Sara eh, di ba?
61:07.5
Paka-uso talaga ngayon ng strategy.
61:09.3
Oo, parang gano'n.
61:10.5
So, eh, ano na, parang, ito lang yung sa'kin, ano,
61:15.9
from a purely public service point of view,
61:22.7
bakit kailangan ka pa ba hikayatin or kumbinsihin itong makbong presidente?
61:30.4
Kung talagang nakikita mong you have the capacity to make a difference in the lives of the people
61:35.6
at marami naga, marami kang nasimulan ng mga base, mga base and besides, vice president ka eh, di ba?
61:44.4
Hindi ba dapat ando do na yun sa'yo na, na tipong, sige, let's go for it?
61:50.0
Bakit kailangan pang kumbinsihin kung talagang mahal mo yung bayan, magkukusa ka?
61:55.5
So, yun yung problema ko dyan.
61:57.4
Hindi dapat, eh na ano, hindi dapat nililigawan ang leader.
62:04.0
Dapat yung leader namumuno.
62:06.6
Just a tiny point on this, again, I mentioned yung 40-45% na somehow up for grabs.
62:14.6
How do we get those people on the side of the good fight, Senator Trillanes?
62:19.6
Ano yung mga katangihan, ano yung mga attributes, ano yung mga positioning na sa tingin mong kailangan natin?
62:24.6
Especially mga kabataan, di ba?
62:26.6
Aside from making better TikTok videos and travel vlogs, ano pang ibang kailangan natin, Senator Trillanes?
62:32.6
Well, remember, yun ang nga kailangan natin.
62:33.6
Well, remember, yun ang nga kailangan natin.
62:34.6
Well, remember, yun ang nga kailangan natin.
62:35.6
Kaya binabalik ko dun sa 28% ni VP Lenny just two years ago.
62:41.6
Yun, they held on to that dream.
62:46.6
So, part of that 45 is the 28.
62:49.6
Kasi ang hiniwalay lang naman is the Duterte 20 and the 31 of the Marcoses.
62:58.6
So, 4% lang yung Liberal Party opposition.
63:04.6
It doesn't matter yung 4% nagshrink pa, so dati 28.
63:06.6
So yung 24 niya na bumoto sa kanya nandu-doon sa 45.
63:12.6
So, in fact, kung sinong pinakamalaking nawalan dito si Lenny, yung pink base, nandu-doon siya kasi naghahanap sila ng leader.
63:21.6
So, the Tulfo Sara is essentially the split of Uniteam, di ba?
63:24.6
Yung 16 na yan at may nga ni Sara and Tulfo.
63:28.6
So, ngayon, pagka lumiwanag na yung leadership ng, di ba?
63:32.6
na yung leadership
63:39.1
magka-gravitate yun
63:41.0
kasi ngayon talaga
63:49.4
yung holding pattern
63:50.6
ano ba nangyayari dyan
63:59.9
independent opposition
64:18.1
siya yung kailangan
64:22.7
Marcos administration
64:23.6
very very good point
64:25.6
actually even more
64:32.2
maybe half of that
64:38.6
so that just tells you
64:41.8
or under top here
64:42.8
kaya mahalaga itong
64:43.6
mga conversation na yan
64:46.4
medyo worried ako
64:47.2
na medyo bangag ako
64:49.6
more than hour of
64:53.7
thank you so much
64:57.6
wide ranging discussion
64:58.5
we're having here
64:59.2
looking forward to
65:00.8
of this in the future
65:07.7
thank you so much
65:11.0
magpahinga po kayo
