00:34.8
Let's go a little bit Cano style, so let's be a little bit formal.
00:38.4
Ang daming pag-usapan, obviously.
00:41.2
First, Dr. Batumbacal, of course, your expertise are international law, international maritime law, by the way, to be specific.
00:47.1
West Philippines, si pag-usapan natin yan.
00:48.9
Ito mga sabog diplomas si ba ginagawa ng China, ito mga secret deals, ito mga new model.
00:54.4
I mean, it's just from one blunder.
01:00.3
Diplomatic blunder to the other.
01:01.6
Is it time to change the ambassador of China?
01:03.8
I mean, magmakawa pa tayo sa Beijing, send us someone more competent.
01:07.6
But before going there, let me call you attorney, Batumbacal, for a while.
01:10.8
I mean, you're, of course, also a lawyer, but not an expert on international humanitarian criminal law.
01:15.9
We have Ruben Carranza, maybe other people to talk to about this.
01:19.2
But, J., can we slightly talk about this whole ISIS issue?
01:23.0
Just your two cents, not as an expert, but as an observer.
01:26.3
Because on context here, obviously, J., is,
01:28.4
if you want international law, you have to be a diplomat.
01:29.4
If you want international law, you have to be a diplomat.
01:29.4
If you want international law, you have to be a diplomat.
01:30.0
If you want international law, you have to be on our side.
01:31.5
If you want rules-based international order, right,
01:34.0
you have to demonstrate that at home, in your own backyard.
01:37.6
And kung ang style ng Marcos administration is,
01:40.4
ay, ayaw namin na ICC, human rights issues,
01:43.5
pero pagdating sa UNCLOS, gusto natin ng supporta,
01:46.0
I just feel that's not very, you know, that's not very compelling.
01:49.9
Can I just get your general views?
01:51.4
Dahil earlier today, we had the DOJ admitting na they're preparing na a briefer
01:56.2
to look at scenarios of ICC warrants of arrest.
01:58.9
We had also Senator...
02:00.0
former Senator Trillanes multiple times on our shows
02:02.8
who has been talking about this moment for quite some time.
02:06.9
So mukhang, the moment of truth is approaching or somehow.
02:10.4
What is your view on that?
02:11.9
Again, not as an expert, but just as an observer here.
02:15.1
Yeah, well, generally, you're right naman, ano?
02:17.5
I mean, we claim to be a country that's advocating the rule of law,
02:21.9
and particularly, we hold very highly,
02:24.5
we value very highly international law in general.
02:30.0
that means that all aspects of international law should be given due to respect, no?
02:36.2
And the Philippines has always advocated the progressive development of international law
02:40.4
because we've always seen it as the refuge and source of strength of smaller states
02:47.5
vis-a-vis larger and more powerful states.
02:50.2
That's why we became a founding member of the United Nations, no?
02:53.7
And we've always held the rule of law and the advocacy
02:57.6
for international law.
03:00.0
And we've always held the rule of law and the advocacy for international law very highly, no?
03:01.6
In our foreign policy since the 1940s, since independence, essentially.
03:08.7
We ourselves, as an independent country, are a beneficiary of that, no?
03:12.6
Because it is what made possible our region and the independence,
03:20.0
not only for ourselves, but also the rest of our neighbors, no?
03:23.0
Due to this mandate of the United Nations for decolonization.
03:27.9
And then, yeah, kasama na doon.
03:30.0
Yung establishment of the rule of law, no?
03:33.5
And the progressive development of international law.
03:37.1
So, tama ka, we cannot close our eyes to the International Criminal Court and the Rome Statute, okay?
03:46.0
After all, we were one of the staunch advocates of it before, no?
03:51.3
And we participated very actively in its negotiation.
03:55.4
It's just unfortunate that we had a president who,
04:00.0
basically, did not care at all about this, no?
04:03.1
And also tarnished our image by withdrawing from it, no?
04:07.7
And now, he's actually the subject of a major investigation under it, no?
04:14.2
So, tama lang, no?
04:16.7
Even though we're not a party right now because the previous administration withdrew from the statute,
04:24.2
still, we are subject to certain aspects of it, especially during the time that we were a party.
04:30.5
And so, if we're going to be true to our advocacy of international law,
04:35.5
then we should let events and the rule of law and their processes take their due course, no?
04:44.1
It would not look good for the Philippines to be, what do you call it,
04:51.0
stu-faced about it, on one hand, advocating international law very strongly on one side, on one aspect,
04:58.0
and then, refusing to...
05:00.0
To recognize it on another, which, when you think about it, is even more primordial
05:05.9
because it concerns human rights, it concerns the rights of people, no?
05:11.4
And their safety, no?
05:13.2
And their protection, no?
05:14.3
And the redress of grievances committed against them as a people.
05:19.4
So, dapat lang, no?
05:21.0
So, it's good that the DOJ, in a way, is being very, ano talo dito, very fair about it, no?
05:30.0
They know the ramifications and the implications of this very difficult issue.
05:36.5
And I guess that's why they came up, as reported, they're coming up with legal briefs
05:42.7
to apprise the leadership of what the scenarios are and what are the options.
05:49.5
And potentially rejoining the International Criminal Court.
05:52.2
This is what we're hearing from the news right now.
05:55.3
Before I talk about Professor Jay dealing with Robin Hood Padilla and Dr.
06:00.0
Dr. Jay Batumbacal, talking about the UN clause in China,
06:04.4
can we go a little bit, rewind natin ng konti?
06:07.6
Kasi, Jay, I remember in one of our conversations, which I think did very well,
06:11.4
especially mong loyalist siyata, for understandable reason,
06:14.9
we discussed how Marcos Sr. administration played a very important role
06:19.9
in bringing smaller archipelagic countries together so that international law is on our side.
06:25.8
Can you give us a little bit of background on that?
06:27.7
Because our current president happens to have the same name.
06:30.0
It's a namesake son.
06:30.7
I just want to say that even the Marcoses have a tradition of having the international law
06:36.4
on the side of weaker countries.
06:39.7
And that advocacy is what resulted in a major change in international law.
06:47.3
Before UNCLOS, there was no law on the concept of the archipelagic state
06:53.7
or archipelagic waters or the unity of land and water as a nation.
07:00.0
So, that advocacy, the Philippines would basically be just a scattered collection of islands
07:04.3
and all of our inter-island waters beyond 12 nautical miles,
07:09.2
which includes the Sulu Sea and large parts of the waters, say, between Luzon and the Visayas Islands.
07:16.3
They would be high seas, meaning they would be open to all nations.
07:20.6
We would have no exclusive rights or authorities over anything that happens within those inter-island waters.
07:30.0
the Philippines took the correct position
07:33.4
in advocating the recognition of our sovereignty over these inter-island waters.
07:39.4
And it pushed, it nudged, it pushed international law in the direction that we now find,
07:44.3
in the direction of where we find ourselves now,
07:47.5
which is that other nations recognize our sovereignty over these inter-island waters.
07:53.9
they also recognize that we're not a scattered set of islands separated by high seas,
08:00.0
a political and geographic unit or an archipelagic state.
08:04.7
And it is on the basis of that unified entity that we now measure as well,
08:10.6
all the maritime zones, which accord to us vast resources.
08:16.8
so, yeah, I mean, that is definitely a contribution of the Philippines to international law in general.
08:24.0
And that's on account of the advocacies that the senior governments.
08:30.0
That his predecessors, his father, essentially,
08:34.3
as well as the administrations before him,
08:37.2
because remember the, essentially, the advocacy for this started 1956.
08:41.3
And it was basically continued, no?
08:44.2
So, it's a, parang, it's a running thread throughout our foreign policy
08:51.0
from the 50s onwards until the 80s and now, and up to now.
08:55.8
So, you're saying it's in the DNA of our Philippine diplomacy, right?
09:00.5
Fighting for international law because international law is the best equalizer for the things defending Philippines.
09:06.5
Again, I think both of us admit that we have our concerns with, you know,
09:10.1
the economic legacy, the human legacy of the Marcos regime, the Marcos senior regime.
09:14.9
But I think on foreign policy, all of us are in agreement that he indeed had very significant contribution
09:19.2
for our national interests, particularly in West Philippine Sea,
09:22.1
particularly bringing smaller countries together.
09:24.3
And that's why, you know, in a way, I'm not surprised that the sun is moving in the right direction,
09:28.5
at least on the foreign policy front.
09:30.0
Mga bang usapan ni mga domestic politics, we can talk about that in a separate platform.
09:35.7
Now, Dr. Betong Bagal, going back again to this ICC, just again, just to remind for people,
09:41.6
again, not as an expert on ICC or constitutional law expert, but as just a lawyer,
09:46.1
as someone who teaches at UP College of Law,
09:48.9
what is your understanding of Duterte withdrawing from the ICC without the concurrence of the Senate?
09:54.0
I recently had an interview with some senators on this issue, which people will watch later on.
09:59.0
Some of them saying,
10:00.0
na medyo sketchy din yung nangyari.
10:01.8
Because if the Senate had a say in treaty accession,
10:06.3
then the Senate maybe should have a say on treaty exit.
10:10.6
So even the rejoining of the ICC is a bit complicated and shrouded in that legal uncertainty.
10:15.7
What is your understanding of the issue?
10:17.7
Yeah, well, for me, the Duterte administration basically took advantage of a gap in the law, essentially.
10:24.6
Because the Constitution didn't explicitly mention anything about,
10:30.0
exiting from treaties or withdrawing from treaties,
10:38.8
despite the fact that they were concurred in by the Senate.
10:43.7
And well, I guess, unfortunately, the court basically also agreed.
10:50.0
And so that makes the process of returning to it even probably even harder because now,
10:58.4
we're going to have to.
11:00.0
We may have to go through another concurrence process for something that should have already been done.
11:06.0
Or that was already done before.
11:08.4
And so there's going to be a new debate, a new round of debates and discussions.
11:13.5
And if the Senate is either polarized or the Senate doesn't see far enough
11:21.3
and doesn't see that this transcends the domestic politics of administrations.
11:26.5
And it's something that is a concern of the nation.
11:30.0
As a whole, therefore should be beyond the domestic politics and party politics.
11:37.2
Now, then we might end up in a situation where we were unable to go back to that particular place.
11:48.3
I mean, I want to push on this, Jay, actually.
11:52.1
No, it's because you dealt with the Senate.
11:54.4
You dealt with senators, probably with Padilla.
11:57.0
We know for a fact that some of the senators, at least two of them,
12:00.0
themselves could be on the ICC list and potentially face warrants of arrest.
12:04.7
So considering that, you know, not an insignificant number of senators,
12:08.8
maybe more sympathetic to the position of the Duterte camp.
12:12.4
Some of them have their own neck in this game or skin in this game.
12:16.7
I think it's quite fanciful to expect the Senate to be, I don't know, professional or look at the national.
12:22.8
But parang nagugulangan ako, Jay, dito.
12:25.4
I mean, in a sense na parang ang dali lang makalabas ang Pilipinas.
12:30.0
Ang panahon ni Digong.
12:31.2
Pero ngayon, yung pagbabalik natin, biglang ang daming veto players.
12:35.4
Why not, if it were so easy for Duterte to get it out, then it should be up to Marcos himself to decide it.
12:40.1
Kasi for sure kung baba ba ito sa Senado, yung mga pro-DDS, yung mga sangkot sa drug war ni Digong,
12:46.8
they're gonna fight, you know, till the end of times, diba?
12:50.2
So ang gulo na itong situation na ito.
12:52.9
Well, again, it's a simple case of us not having had any prior experiences of this kind.
13:00.0
Walang president yung withdrawal, walang president yung rejoining.
13:05.4
So, and because of that, the law is not clear on that, and therefore, it will be debatable.
13:10.5
And the fact now that you have actual senators who might be on trial for that,
13:17.1
siyempre that adds to the complexity.
13:18.9
Di umano'y, Jay. Di umano'y ng pro-DDS. Let's just be clear.
13:24.9
But yeah, who might be on trial.
13:28.7
You're being too polite.
13:29.8
Okay, just a side note, just to remind everyone, what was your back and forth with Senator Robin Hood Padilla?
13:38.3
I mean, how, you know, kasi yung mga nanonood, naiinis na sila, pero ikaw, relax ka lang, eh, Prof. Batumbakal.
13:44.7
I mean, is it the professor in you, or is it the bataw at bakal in you? I mean, what's going on there?
13:51.4
Well, I had the advantage of a mute button for the mic.
13:57.5
Minimute na lang.
13:59.0
And also, I had the advantage of a mute button for the mic.
13:59.8
And also, I had the advantage of a mute button for the mic.
13:59.8
And also, I mean, I knew that, you know, I was on the screen.
14:04.1
So, diyan laki-laki nung, probably, nung screen doon sa Senetol.
14:08.1
Any little twitch, kitang-kanta.
14:10.4
So, I had to restrain myself.
14:13.0
But, you know, you also have to, I mean, that's part of the training, eh.
14:16.3
Sometimes, you just really have to have the patience to let a lot of bull go.
14:23.2
Poker face na poker face.
14:24.7
Like, pag ako yan, napikon siguro ako.
14:26.9
So, magandang, sir, baka naman, gusto mong mag-research.
14:29.8
Research kayo dyan.
14:31.3
But, I have a lot of respect for your patience, Jay.
14:36.1
Ako, pasensyosa ako.
14:37.5
Pero, ano, spicy din ako.
14:39.2
Ay, you know, bardagul.
14:40.1
Ikaw talagang, bait-bait mo talaga kay Senator Robin Hood, eh.
14:45.3
Do you have an advice for other experts who will be soon invited, siguro, sa Senado?
14:53.6
Ano nga yung, ano?
14:55.4
Ano nga yung mantra ni, ano, ni Paul?
15:00.4
Inner peace, ayan.
15:01.5
Bear and forbear.
15:02.8
Medyo stoic na tayo.
15:04.2
Now, balikan natin itong topic natin.
15:07.0
Jay, this is how I do it, right?
15:08.3
I always put some dark humor into conversation.
15:10.6
Kasi, of course, these are very technical.
15:12.7
These are very high-stakes issues.
15:14.1
So, kung walang humor, baka maboard yung mga followers natin.
15:16.7
But, I think they also understand na there's some element of seriousness in the things we're saying.
15:20.9
Pero, di umano eh.
15:22.0
Pro DDS or di umano eh.
15:24.1
Medyo sangkot dito sa ICC na yan.
15:25.8
Just to be fair about this.
15:27.3
Don't worry, Jay.
15:28.3
I'm not gonna ask you about the Maricel.
15:32.2
Yung mga leaks, leaks na marites.
15:34.3
Don't worry about it.
15:35.5
Now, balikan natin itong issue na ito.
15:38.5
Do you think, I mean, is it conceivable na the Philippines can get international sympathy on the West Philippine Sea issue
15:47.4
if it doesn't come clean on the ICC issue?
15:50.3
The reason I'm saying this is because we had Justice Carpio earlier in our podcast.
15:55.7
And he was suggesting na actually the next move should be additional arbitration.
15:59.8
To resolve the status of Scarborough Shoal.
16:02.9
I had an interview also with Senator Antonio Trillanes.
16:05.6
Whose position is, well, no one is stopping us from going back to Scarborough Shoal.
16:10.7
Because technically speaking, no one is in complete control of the Shoal.
16:14.0
There's a kind of a Chinese presence there or encirclement.
16:18.0
I don't know what to call it.
16:18.7
But, hindi naman na-reclaim ng China yan.
16:21.0
So, the suggestion of Senator Trillanes is baka you wanna muscle your way in with help from allies.
16:27.1
Because the suggestion of Justice Carpio.
16:29.8
Carpio is, no, you need additional arbitration.
16:31.9
Either way, you need the international community on your side, right?
16:34.8
So, parang ang gulo sa akin kung sa ICC, medyo wishy-washy ka.
16:39.3
Then you want moral clarity or you're projecting moral clarity on this.
16:42.8
And by the way, I forgot to mention this.
16:44.9
Di ba, Jay, we also tried to bring in ICC on the West Philippine Sea issue.
16:49.6
Remember the case by former Associate Justice Carpio Morales, right?
16:55.4
And, of course, the late Foreign Affairs Secretary.
16:59.8
Del Rosario, whereby they tried to leverage the ICC to go after individual Chinese leaders
17:06.5
for violating the basic rights of Filipino fishermen, di ba?
17:10.4
Can you also remind us of that?
17:11.7
Kasi may nexus na yung ICC and West Philippine Sea, eh.
17:16.7
Yeah, I should review that a little bit more.
17:19.2
It was very technical.
17:20.2
Again, of course, I know, I know.
17:21.2
I don't wanna be unfair to you.
17:22.2
I recall they tried to invoke portions of provisions of the wrong statute.
17:29.8
Particularly, yeah, the deprivation of livelihoods of our fishermen, no?
17:35.0
From the poor fishers of the West Philippine Sea, no?
17:39.5
But unfortunately, the ICC did not consider itself to have jurisdiction over those particular acts,
17:47.5
even if they were taking place.
17:50.6
Simply because on technicality, essentially, no?
17:57.7
The acts over which...
17:59.8
The acts over which they have jurisdiction need to be committed within the territory, no?
18:03.9
Which technically, in international law, has to refer to either the land or the territory of the sea.
18:09.5
And the acts that they were complaining of were in the EEZ.
18:14.6
And so, because of that, they did not have the jurisdictional hook, the jurisdictional anchor upon which to proceed.
18:25.4
Even though the ICC was inclined to pursue...
18:29.8
...bases that involve mga environmental crimes, no?
18:34.5
Unfortunately, yung jurisdictional requirements were not met, okay?
18:39.8
So, yun yung naalala ko doon, no?
18:42.9
Nevertheless, there is a nexus in terms of the principle of a rules-based order and rule of law, di ba?
18:49.9
Kung sabog ka internally and then you wanna present yourself as a champion of international rule of law,
18:55.2
then medyo problematic yan.
18:57.1
Not to mention, I would say that some would say,
18:58.9
wait, Ferdinand Marco,
18:59.8
but, again, that's a very political comment.
19:03.0
But going back to this,
19:04.8
Jay, what is your personal take on this?
19:06.9
Do we have to go for additional lawfare, legal warfare,
19:10.1
to address the status of Scarborough Shoal, which is still up in the air?
19:14.1
Well, I think Scarborough Shoal kasi is now subject to a territorial dispute, no?
19:18.7
And so, our options are limited if the other party does not agree to take it before a court.
19:24.7
So, ang kailangan nating bantayan, essentially, is that we do not make decisions or take actions
19:29.7
or even issue statements that would undermine our position that Scarborough Shoal is part of the Philippine national territory.
19:39.4
And it's a common fishing ground, right?
19:41.1
The fact that it's a common fishing ground does not detract from the fact that it is still Philippine territory, as far as I'm concerned.
19:48.6
I meant in terms of China has no right to prevent us and others getting there.
19:52.2
So, China is violating international law.
19:53.9
Yes, I think that's where the arbitration comes in.
19:58.2
Where, essentially, they ruled that it doesn't matter who actually has sovereignty over this,
20:03.4
even if that's resolved much later.
20:06.0
What is important is that the economic activities, traditional fishing activities, should not be interfered with.
20:12.5
And that's what China continues to prevent.
20:16.9
So, it does continue to violate or does continue to act contrary to the findings of the 2016 arbitration.
20:25.2
And China can no longer claim good.
20:28.2
Or they can no longer claim that, no, this is our right.
20:32.9
Because, essentially, it is still disputed territory.
20:37.8
And also, even if it were found to be China's,
20:43.0
they still could not be allowed to prevent traditional fishing activities of Filipinos from taking place.
20:51.0
Thank you for that.
20:52.1
I keep on saying, Prof. Batumbakal, not because I want to be foreign.
20:55.1
It's because people are, some are coming in late and they're wondering,
21:00.4
Your voice will be a household name soon.
21:03.7
You won't just look like that, Jay.
21:05.8
Prof. Batumbakal, going back to this, let's talk about,
21:09.1
Okay, here we go.
21:09.8
We're transitioning now to the, I mean, we didn't mention the word D, Duterte.
21:13.6
Obviously, the whole ICC has one thing or the other to do with Duterte.
21:17.2
So, one nexus between ICC and West Philippines is obviously international law, rule of law.
21:22.8
The other one is the Duterte element.
21:24.1
But again, none of us is ICC expert here.
21:28.2
But what you are supposed to be an expert in, Jay, is itong West Philippine issue.
21:33.1
Pag-usapan natin ito.
21:34.4
So, ano itong Hanash ng...
21:36.4
Ano itong mga claim ng China, to be more technical about this, Hanash ng China,
21:42.0
na may gentleman's agreement, and then ngayon they're threatening to release audio.
21:47.6
Ano itong kompromat, KGB style?
21:49.8
I mean, this is crazy.
21:50.7
I mean, and then may new model daw, model ng deal.
21:54.7
I mean, everyone is denying it.
21:56.3
They're just burning bridges.
21:58.2
So, what on earth is China talking about?
22:00.2
Second, could there be any basis to it?
22:02.4
And third, what is the implication?
22:04.1
This is just making things worse.
22:06.6
Well, I think, Anoy, when you think about it, China probably knows or realizes that its
22:13.5
credibility is pretty low when it comes to compliance with international agreements.
22:17.9
I mean, its actions in the West Philippine Sea and South China Sea are serious and they
22:27.2
detract from its credibility.
22:30.1
So, tingin nila, siguro, ang ganti dyan is to also diminish the credibility of the other
22:36.1
party, so the Philippines.
22:38.2
So, this seems to be the way that they've decided on to try to do that, gantihan lang
22:43.7
bale, in the hope that by showing the Philippines to be untrustworthy or unreliable or deceptive,
22:52.8
et cetera, they're hoping that that will keep other nations from coming to the Philippines
22:57.2
and offering support.
22:58.2
Parang ano talaga, yung tarring the opponent or something?
23:08.4
I guess that's the overall strategy.
23:11.8
And so now, they're using this and deploying this particularly with respect to these two
23:18.0
areas, Ayungin particularly, and then Scarborough lately, hoping that that will then stick.
23:25.0
Kasi alam nilang yun din yung issue.
23:28.2
The Philippines has been highlighting, and because of the way they've been bullying us
23:35.9
essentially in these places, they know that it is the source, essentially, it's the source
23:40.9
of power on the Philippines.
23:42.6
It's a source, it is what generates support for the Philippines in the international community.
23:48.5
So, that's why they're releasing these so-called agreements, alleged agreements, to try to
23:56.5
tell the international community or try to...
23:58.2
They should not be coming to the Philippines to give it support because what is happening
24:04.2
now is essentially the Philippines' fault, that it is reversing its positions, that it
24:13.1
is deceiving the international community.
24:16.0
And all along, China has been acting properly and fairly in accordance with these alleged
24:22.2
So, yun ang lumalabas dyan.
24:25.0
Can we pause on that, Jake?
24:26.8
This is a very important point.
24:28.2
Thank you for pointing that out.
24:29.4
Kasi, ang basa ko dyan is, obviously, if you talk about other democracies, flagship
24:34.4
democracies, alam nila na Duterte was dodgy.
24:37.8
And the idea was Duterte was an aberration.
24:40.3
Where I can see this strategy of if you can beat them, badmouth them, could work is with
24:47.7
Because if you look at the rest of the ASEAN, either they're quiet or nagpaparinig sila
24:53.2
na, oy, huwag kayong magulo dyan, or just fix it.
24:58.2
The other version I hear is, eh, Presidente nyo nga, si Digong nga, ayaw i-assert ng West
25:02.4
Philippines e, tas umahasa kayo sa amin, ang gulo nyong kausap, kayo nga magulo e.
25:06.0
So, I hear that kayo ang magulo, a lot from our ASEAN counterparts, or yung mga nakipag-usap
25:11.1
sa mga ASEAN counterparts.
25:11.7
I'm not gonna say which countries.
25:13.4
So, sa kutop ko, this Chinese mudslinging, whatever, disinformation, is actually gonna
25:19.3
be, has a logic to it, because yun ang pwede gamitin ng ibang ASEAN countries to say, ayun
25:24.1
pala, may mga ang gulo nyo palang kausap e.
25:26.6
I mean, yun ang nakikita kong...
25:32.2
In a way, it also cultivates distrust of the Philippines and keeps ASEAN fragmented.
25:41.6
Through these maneuvers, they're able to keep the Philippines from gaining more support
25:47.0
within the region, which is exactly what they want.
25:51.7
Unified ASEAN is something that China believes is a threat to it talaga.
25:57.0
So, that's why they...
25:58.0
Do anything and everything to try to keep that from happening.
26:03.0
Yeah, that makes sense then.
26:05.3
That they could be doing this for that particular audience.
26:08.6
Oo, iba yung audience.
26:10.6
Iba yung Hindi democracies, eh.
26:14.1
Now, what about the sketchy dodginess part of it?
26:17.9
Because it actually makes also China look bad, diba?
26:21.3
Ang ginagawa nila ay mga patago na medyo, diba?
26:24.7
Parang malihim-lihim effect.
26:26.3
So, that actually doesn't...
26:28.0
China look like a credible actor also.
26:31.5
That's why it's...
26:34.0
Parang they don't seem to realize that it actually backfires on them.
26:37.1
Because ang lumalabas is...
26:39.0
Assuming that these were true, no?
26:40.8
Then, their mode of diplomacy is one based on deceptions,
26:45.1
aversion, and going around the leadership and authorities, no?
26:49.6
Going directly to the ground.
26:50.8
I mean, gangster.
26:54.0
Going directly to the ground to secure these operational agreements or...
26:58.0
You know, these temporary agreements.
27:00.5
Gentleman's agreement ka.
27:01.3
Tama ang tawag nila, diba?
27:02.5
Which is inherently non-binding.
27:04.4
And then, later on, turning around and saying,
27:06.9
no, you're bound by that, no?
27:09.0
So, if other countries are looking at this and saying this,
27:12.6
di ka madududan na sila.
27:16.2
They're gonna later allege that we're bound by the agreement
27:18.6
made with some of our local officials or some functionaries there, no?
27:23.5
They will only become even more suspicious about China,
27:27.2
about their officials,
27:28.3
about anything that has to do with China, no?
27:31.1
So, it actually backfires and increases the costs for China
27:35.2
in terms of any transactions that they would try to engage in with other countries.
27:39.8
Magiging doubly cautious sila
27:41.4
and probably in negotiations even more careful and hardline, no?
27:46.4
In their positioning, no?
27:47.8
So, yung nga, tama ka.
27:50.8
It's a very dangerous, problematic position.
27:53.6
Yeah, kasi, Jay, diba?
27:54.5
Parang they're burning bridges.
27:55.7
You have National Security Council,
27:57.0
you have the National Security Council,
27:57.1
you have the National Security Council,
27:57.2
you have the National Security Council,
27:57.4
they're coming out lashing at them.
27:58.9
You have DND Secretary Guibao saying na,
28:01.4
wag niyo nakausapin yung ambassador ng China yan.
28:03.3
Parang ano yan, a case of death na yun.
28:04.8
Like, they will divulge informations na dapat.
28:09.1
Yung diploma si unique confidentiality.
28:10.8
Otherwise, you cannot have a proper conversation.
28:12.7
Eh, kung ganyan yung kapila,
28:13.8
uy, release namin yung ano, diba?
28:15.9
Ayaw mo tayo nakakausapin.
28:17.5
Ano mang yaran yan, diba?
28:18.5
I mean, this is a disaster.
28:19.8
This is a diplomatic disaster.
28:22.0
Yeah, and it's only making it even more difficult
28:25.2
for them to achieve their objectives,
28:26.9
within the region
28:27.8
which is to turn the Philippines
28:31.2
basically. They want the Philippines
28:33.0
close. They want the Philippines
28:34.8
to be staying quiet
28:38.4
and they definitely don't want the Philippines
28:41.0
to allow other countries'
28:43.0
external powers to have any kind of
28:47.0
this is only resulting in the opposite
28:51.0
driving us towards
28:55.0
which they precisely
28:56.9
is the opposite of what they want.
29:00.5
I don't know if it's because
29:02.5
they're so isolated
29:04.7
or everything is so filtered that
29:06.6
they become their own
29:09.8
Medyo out of touch.
29:13.3
Jay, I want to ask, of course,
29:14.7
the other implication here is,
29:16.4
hindi ba pinapamak nila yung mga bata nila?
29:18.4
I'm sorry, hindi nila pinapamak yung mga friends
29:20.5
nila sa Philippines.
29:22.5
This is not going to make Duterte's look
29:24.6
good. This is something that
29:26.5
I mean, we saw Speaker of the House
29:28.4
Romualdo is openly using the word budul.
29:30.8
Nagbu-budul lang itong mga ito, di ba?
29:32.8
Obviously, may acts to grind. Marami may
29:34.6
acts to grind with Duterte. So, we're already going to
29:36.5
face potentially an ICC warrant.
29:38.5
I mean, even if the ICC doesn't happen,
29:40.9
ito pwede sila mapin down. Now, we know
29:42.5
that there are no laws for treason
29:44.1
in times of peace.
29:46.1
But from a political standpoint, I mean, this
29:48.5
could lead to some hearings, very
29:50.2
incriminating hearings. It could really damage
29:52.6
Duterte's, right? Which is not good for China.
29:54.8
They have a lot of money.
29:56.5
He's even exposed to a charge of
29:57.8
anti-graphing corrupt practices act.
30:00.4
Which has what? 10 to 20 years potentially
30:02.4
also, ano? I mean, di ba?
30:04.7
Yeah. And perpetual disqualification
30:06.7
for public office.
30:08.5
Which is relevant in light of next year's
30:10.5
elections, right?
30:12.6
I don't know. I mean,
30:17.2
that's why I think
30:18.6
these are parang acts of desperation
30:21.6
in a way. Anything
30:23.6
and everything, they're throwing anything and everything
30:25.3
they can in the hopes,
30:26.5
that would be enough to turn.
30:28.1
Something would stick.
30:31.0
But, Jay, I want to ask you here,
30:33.2
hindi ba medyo nakakabahala din ito?
30:35.0
I mean, both of, both you and I,
30:36.8
we have been marooned in this
30:38.9
fight. I mean, you way longer than me, of course.
30:40.8
But at least for the past 10 years, we have been together
30:42.9
since 2012-13. I mean, together
30:44.6
in terms of fighters for West Pacific Sea.
30:47.5
Baka naman, mamaritize
30:53.0
ang worry ko naman is,
30:54.4
baka naman, mag-ano
30:56.3
tayo, mag-overshoot na naman tayo
30:58.2
this time. If Digong was overshooting
31:00.0
of, you know, let's not be dependent on US,
31:02.0
baka naman we go into the other side. Both of us are teaching
31:04.2
in UP. I mean, we are traditionally
31:06.0
aggressive, right? I mean, and makabayan
31:08.3
at the same time. Not makabayan block, but
31:10.1
makabayan in terms of mahal natin ang bahayan natin.
31:13.9
not to gaslight us,
31:16.0
obviously, kasalanan ng ambassador ng China
31:17.9
and palitan yun and put someone more effective
31:19.9
like Zhao or something like that. But,
31:22.2
Beto, this is also not
31:24.1
good for us, right? Because it might wet the
31:26.1
appetite of some more, let's be honest,
31:27.8
pro-American, amboy,
31:29.4
I'm not gonna name names, the people who
31:31.7
want us to go all in and, you know,
31:34.1
burn bridges with China.
31:35.7
What is your sense on that? Direction
31:38.0
of the wind? Well, tama ka,
31:40.1
no? I mean, it could go
31:41.9
a little bit too far
31:44.1
on the other end, di ba?
31:46.7
Because after all,
31:47.9
regardless of what happens, we're still neighbors,
31:51.4
China is still the regional power.
31:55.9
yeah, the thing is,
31:59.1
on our part, especially
32:01.8
in foreign affairs, there are people who are
32:03.8
worried about that and they're
32:05.8
trying their best to try
32:07.8
to keep channels open or keep some avenues
32:12.3
They're not like, you know,
32:13.7
burn every bridge. They want to
32:15.6
keep certain bridges open. Because of that,
32:17.8
the reality is that
32:18.9
after all is said and done, we still need to deal
32:21.7
with them. And they're still neighbors
32:23.4
and there's still a lot that
32:27.7
Not in a bad sense, but in a good sense.
32:30.2
There's still that potential.
32:32.4
You mean for trade, investment,
32:34.1
people-to-people relations?
32:45.7
or attempt to preserve certain things, at least
32:47.9
to keep something sacred. I don't see that on
32:49.9
the other side there right now.
32:52.0
From all the public statements
32:53.8
of their MOFA, not just their,
32:55.7
their mouthpieces like the Global Times,
32:58.0
but MOFA itself and their official
32:59.8
spokesperson, official statements,
33:01.9
I don't see any kind of quarter
33:03.7
being given talaga.
33:05.7
It's either you bow to us or else.
33:08.2
So what you're saying, Jace, ginusto nila to.
33:10.3
I mean, kasalanan nila yan. Why should we
33:12.2
carry the water for them?
33:14.1
We already have our own problems to deal with, right?
33:15.9
Parang yun may, let
33:17.5
them sort it out on their own and mature
33:19.7
and grow up. And the truth is,
33:21.7
we have very little to lose.
33:23.6
I mean, West Philippine Sea,
33:25.7
I mean, they've achieved
33:29.5
in terms of deployment of
33:31.7
forces. They're so confident that they
33:33.7
have everything that they need
33:35.0
to do anything that they want, whether we like
33:37.8
it or not, no? I mean,
33:40.3
we have nowhere else to go
33:44.9
in a way. We're up against the wall.
33:47.8
So our only choice is to push back.
33:50.5
And stand their ground.
33:52.0
Yeah, and stand their ground.
33:54.3
And they may think that,
33:55.7
uh, they have the
33:58.9
I don't know where I sit.
34:01.6
It's a funny story. In one,
34:04.3
back when I was still doing
34:05.5
track two with them, and I was confronted by
34:07.5
one, you know, higher level
34:09.6
senior official of the party.
34:13.5
discussing, mga kung kumbaga, contingencies.
34:15.7
And he said, you know, he was basically
34:17.2
mounting off about how
34:19.4
superior their forces are, etc., etc.
34:21.9
And I basically quoted
34:23.6
a line from Daredevil.
34:25.7
And he simply said, well,
34:27.8
yeah, that may be true, but
34:29.1
to paraphrase Daredevil,
34:31.4
I said, you know, a man without hope is a man
34:35.7
I mean, is it the Al Pacino one or something?
34:38.1
No, this is from the comic book.
34:40.8
You take away all these...
34:42.6
You mean Daredevil? Yeah, but yeah,
34:45.7
that's a very important quote.
34:49.1
So, even they don't
34:51.8
know what we might be
34:53.6
willing to do if they take away all of
34:55.6
these options and, you know,
34:59.1
No, but they know, right? I mean, Jay, we have
35:01.3
options also, right? Yeah, yeah.
35:03.5
We can give Americans 10 more bases
35:05.5
close to Taiwan. We can give
35:07.3
Japanese more access. I mean, it's not
35:09.6
like we don't have options. We can make this...
35:11.7
We can also tighten the screws
35:13.5
on them. We have options.
35:16.9
For them, kasi maybe they think that that's not
35:22.0
particular, you know, biases and prejudices.
35:25.6
Blind spots, yeah, yeah.
35:27.0
But, yeah, yeah. I mean, that's entirely possible.
35:29.7
They take away all of these islands,
35:31.8
suddenly you'll have, suddenly
35:35.5
sprouting up all over the country or
35:38.9
suddenly we'll start buying missile batteries
35:41.4
to cover the entire South China Sea. I mean,
35:43.9
these are things they don't see
35:45.4
as possible reactions
35:47.7
to what they're doing.
35:49.7
Yeah, yung typhoon, di ba?
35:51.4
The Americans brought in the typhoon. That was a warning shot.
35:53.7
Shot across the bow. They can bring in,
35:55.6
you know, 10 of those typhoons,
35:57.1
20 IFRs, Patriot Missile Systems.
35:59.5
I mean, it can make life very difficult for...
36:02.0
And atat din ang mga Amerikana,
36:03.7
di ba? They're also here to
36:04.9
their own grind. The Japanese hate them.
36:07.5
The Australians have their own... So, my point
36:09.5
is, I think, ridiculous yung thinking
36:11.7
ng China that this comes down to
36:13.5
AFP versus PLA. No.
36:15.5
This is way more than that.
36:17.0
They're a constellation of alliances here.
36:19.8
But, Jay, I want to go back...
36:21.0
You're giving us every reason to create
36:23.2
strong alliances.
36:25.6
giving other countries every reason
36:27.9
as well to build them.
36:31.0
It's counterproductive talaga, for them, at least,
36:35.8
Jay, I want to ask you a little bit also about the
36:39.7
I'm conscious not to go too much into operational
36:42.0
military issue because we have,
36:43.5
of course, Admiral Ong, among others, to talk
36:45.9
to about this. Siya ang kausap ko when it comes
36:48.0
to this high Mars issue, technical issues
36:50.1
on Taiwan, Mabuli.
36:53.2
want to pressure you too much on areas that
36:55.6
are not really relevant to your core expertise.
36:57.6
Pero ano ang understanding mo naman dito sa
37:00.1
Because our understanding is that the San Dike,
37:02.1
the Chinese are doing something there.
37:04.1
And, of course, in international law, the low tide elevation
37:06.1
can bump outward your territorial sea, right?
37:10.1
If it falls within a 12 knots.
37:12.1
So, anong ginagawa ng China sa San Dike?
37:15.1
The first time we heard about San Dike was 2018, diba?
37:17.6
When Justice Carpio made this public.
37:20.6
Anong kalagayan dyan sa San Dike?
37:22.1
What's the scramble dyan malapit sa pag-asa?
37:24.1
Because this is ripe.
37:25.6
Outside pag-asa's waters, yeah.
37:28.6
Well, minimum is that they're basically trying
37:31.6
to constrain our freedom around pag-asa island.
37:36.6
Before, we had full access to everything,
37:39.6
all the resources of the reefs around pag-asa island.
37:42.6
Now, they're pushing us backward or back.
37:46.6
And, basically, depriving pag-asa island
37:49.6
of its sources of simple sustenance like fish, no?
37:53.6
They're also limiting
37:55.6
the area over which we could say we have absolute control, basically.
38:00.6
Kasi, you get maybe, what, 500 meters away from pag-asa island,
38:05.6
they're already there shadowing you
38:07.6
and, if necessary, preventing you from doing anything that you need to do.
38:11.6
So, it's like their cabbage strategy says.
38:14.6
Now, you keep enveloping these areas
38:18.6
within layers and layers of activities, militia, Coast Guard Navy, etc.
38:23.6
Until, eventually, it becomes too difficult to access that.
38:27.6
Either, you're unable to sustain your presence
38:30.6
because you cannot bring in supplies,
38:32.6
or you voluntarily say, you just give up
38:35.6
because everything is just too hard anymore.
38:37.6
So, I think, it is all part of that.
38:40.6
Now, yung sand decay and the possibility that they are
38:44.6
artificially building up these islands,
38:47.6
I mean, that just provides them with parang an excuse
38:52.6
To try to constrain us
38:54.6
from moving around closer to Subi, etc.
38:59.6
So, that's what I think is really, right now, is really happening.
39:03.6
Island building, I don't see yet
39:07.6
how those little patches can give them any serious advantage.
39:13.6
I mean, after all,
39:14.6
It's much bigger, no?
39:19.6
I've seen Sand Decay 2 and
39:22.6
3, we became pretty close to that.
39:24.6
It's relatively small and it's barren
39:27.6
and it doesn't have much use
39:30.6
unless you actually convert it into an artificial island.
39:34.6
Joey, I don't want to press you again too much
39:36.6
on the operational, tactical issue,
39:38.6
but I just want to ask,
39:39.6
what is your general opinion,
39:41.6
maybe as a non-expert on military affairs,
39:43.6
but as a West Philippines guy,
39:45.6
to what degree should America get involved here?
39:47.6
Is the status quo okay? Kasi binabomba pong batahin ng tubig.
39:51.6
Nai-injure yung mga naval officers natin.
39:53.6
Nagka-consolidate ng China militarization nila.
39:56.6
Do you think America should be involved more
39:58.6
or involved more in ways that doesn't necessarily undermine
40:01.6
the Philippines' strategic autonomy?
40:03.6
I mean, what is the Goldilocks solution?
40:06.6
Yeah, I think number one,
40:08.6
we have to keep in mind,
40:09.6
it has to be the Philippines that makes the decision
40:11.6
which takes the lead.
40:12.6
The Americans cannot have any interest higher than ours,
40:16.6
Especially when it comes to issues of sovereignty,
40:19.6
that's our responsibility.
40:20.6
That's our burden to carry.
40:23.6
And the US can only provide assistance and support
40:27.6
insofar as it remains consistent with their own position.
40:31.6
And their own position when it comes to territorial claims
40:33.6
is that as long as it's peacefully resolved.
40:38.6
But the fact that they want things to be peacefully resolved
40:41.6
gives us a little bit of flexibility
40:44.6
in terms of the alliance to seek assistance
40:47.6
to prevent non-peaceful,
40:50.6
or forceful resolution of the disputes.
40:52.6
So yung pwede nating gamitin.
40:55.6
we have to be the ones to set the terms.
40:58.6
We have to be the ones to set the parameters,
41:00.6
Kasi hindi sila yung nandidito.
41:03.6
Whatever the result,
41:05.6
whatever the outcome,
41:06.6
it's the Philippines that has to live with the outcome.
41:08.6
So that's why I'm not in favor of them taking on
41:13.6
any greater role than what we decide to allow them to have.
41:18.6
Kasi medyo nakakairita yung mga iba na parang
41:21.6
American knight in shining.
41:23.6
No, I mean, just let us do our thing
41:26.6
and then just be over the horizon.
41:28.6
And give us good platform systems.
41:30.6
Hindi yung mga...
41:32.6
Hanggang ngayon, wala pa tayong kahit isang F-16
41:34.6
or F-15 fighter from the US.
41:36.6
Wala pa tayong corvettes na advance.
41:38.6
They just gave how many?
41:39.6
17 billion to Israel, 60 billion to Ukraine.
41:42.6
Maka na lang binigay sa Pilipinas, 500 million.
41:44.6
I mean, it looks big,
41:46.6
but it's actually nothing compared to China.
41:48.6
Ilang araw lang na expenditure ng PLA yan, diba?
41:51.6
Yeah, pero unfortunately,
41:53.6
the reason why they're that restrained
41:57.6
in giving us aid and assistance, unfortunately,
41:59.6
is that we also have a history kasi eh
42:01.6
of getting more than we can sustain.
42:07.6
You have all those F-8 Crusaders, for example,
42:11.6
and before that, the F-5s.
42:14.6
We used to get all that assistance for free,
42:17.6
but we never even put in our budget enough to maintain them.
42:20.6
Just allow them to deteriorate, no?
42:23.6
And then we ask for more.
42:25.6
So, that explains it.
42:27.6
Jay, I completely understand na we should be blamed.
42:30.6
Pero kasi tayong problem child, sila yung may pera.
42:33.6
So, parang scouting yan, diba, sa sports.
42:36.6
You invest in the player who's diamond.
42:39.6
So, sa tito ko naman,
42:41.6
Philippines is a much more developed country than 1960s, 70s, 80s,
42:45.6
we're an upper-income country almost.
42:47.6
At ito na, China is staring into us.
42:49.6
I mean, we cannot afford to be complacent like...
42:52.6
Oh, yeah. Ito lang. Pero I think that's also why now we're...
42:55.6
But I do not agree it applies to Philippines in the 21st century.
42:57.6
Yun lang point ko kasi, Jay. Kasi feeling ko,
42:59.6
again, this is not you per se,
43:01.6
pero feeling ko maraming self-blaming nang nangyari dyan.
43:03.6
And I'm not comfortable with us because
43:05.6
by the same token, why is Ukraine getting 60 billion?
43:08.6
Anong ulit yung history record ng Ukraine?
43:11.6
I mean, yes, they did very strongly in 2022,
43:13.6
but before that, Ukraine was 10 times more corrupt
43:16.6
than the Philippines or something like that.
43:18.6
So, for me, you have to invest in the rough diamond.
43:20.6
Kasi ito na talaga.
43:22.6
Pero we also have to send the right signals.
43:25.6
Level up. I completely agree.
43:27.6
Under Duterte, it became clear.
43:28.6
The signaling was that we're not willing to defend.
43:32.6
We were putting our money where our mouth was
43:34.6
when it came to these disputes.
43:36.6
And Duterte was saying,
43:37.6
7 minutes lang yung missile.
43:39.6
So, why should the US spend billions of dollars
43:42.6
on us when that's what we were telling them
43:45.6
essentially was that we're not going to use them
43:47.6
to defend ourselves anyway.
43:48.6
So, ngayon, it's only under this government.
43:51.6
Under this administration, medyo nagbago,
43:53.6
naging mas robust.
43:54.6
Ayan, then we're seeing all these
43:57.6
more tangible offers na.
43:59.6
But, Jay, I agree and disagree with you.
44:01.6
I agree with you in the sense that,
44:03.6
ikaw Amerika, bibigyan mo ba si Digong ng advanced weapons?
44:06.6
Baka bibigyan niya sa China the next day, diba?
44:08.6
At the same time, my counterargument to that would be,
44:10.6
kasi, of course, alam mo,
44:11.6
parating kong kasama si Ronald Llamas
44:14.6
at saka yung mga tao in Aquino administration.
44:16.6
Si Pinoy daw mismo, may mga times na nainis na siya
44:18.6
na bakit yung mga weapons na binibigay sa Pilipinas.
44:21.6
Kasi, we had Greg Pauling on my show
44:25.6
Aquino was taken for granted.
44:27.6
How many state visits did Aquino have again?
44:30.6
So, again, Jay, I buy the argument na
44:33.6
Digong, kahit ako, hindi ko bibigyan ng anything yan.
44:36.6
Pero, andun naman si Pinoy eh, 6 years.
44:38.6
Bakit di tayo binigyan nung panoon ni Pinoy?
44:40.6
Kaya bumili tayo ng F-A-50 tuloy sa Korea.
44:43.6
E di sana F-16 fighter ka agad.
44:45.6
Again, Jay, I do not disagree na may problema tayo.
44:48.6
Kaya nga, rough diamond to put it nicely.
44:50.6
But even when we had good presidents like Pinoy
44:52.6
on the West Philippine Sea issue,
44:56.6
Alam mo naman, Jay.
44:58.6
But, again, it all depends on context.
45:01.6
I mean, at the time,
45:02.6
the Americans did not really see the stakes in the West Philippine Sea
45:07.6
insofar as they were concerned.
45:10.6
As long, you know,
45:11.6
until the Chinese started to warn away their aerial patrols
45:15.6
from the artificial islands, no?
45:18.6
That was the only time that they realized
45:19.6
that their freedom of navigation was really threatened.
45:22.6
So, again, you have to thank China for that, no?
45:25.6
Another mistake for bringing in the US.
45:28.6
Pero, yeah, ganun eh.
45:30.6
I mean, it's not just the leadership,
45:33.6
it's also the conditions eh.
45:35.6
Also, remember, during Pinoy's time,
45:37.6
the concern of the Obama administration
45:38.6
was trying to bring China on.
45:39.6
Trying to bring China on board
45:40.6
on like what climate change
45:42.6
and then economic ano, diba?
45:45.6
Yun yung reality eh.
45:47.6
Okay, my other counter-argument.
45:49.6
Getsko, Israel is a special ally of US.
45:51.6
Getsko, Ukraine is in middle of the war.
45:54.6
They get, I don't know,
45:55.6
200 times more aid than us, fine.
46:00.6
you wanna talk about political instability on reliability?
46:03.6
I put Philippines above Pakistan
46:05.6
and arguably above Jordan too.
46:07.6
Those guys have F-16 fighters.
46:10.6
I know that you can criticize me and say,
46:12.6
oh, Richard, ito ka na naman,
46:15.6
you have to choose your alliance.
46:16.6
Otherwise, what's the point?
46:17.6
Kasi hindi tayo i-respetuin.
46:19.6
Kasi, again, Jay,
46:20.6
how can we be a useful ally
46:22.6
kung wala tayong projection capabilities?
46:25.6
Hindi naman pwede na rentier lang
46:26.6
yung relationship natin.
46:28.6
Saan naman projection capabilities?
46:29.6
Hindi, totoo yan.
46:31.6
And I think that's why
46:32.6
there have been changes, basically,
46:35.6
in the way that the Americans
46:36.6
have been treating the allies.
46:37.6
They've been treating the alliance
46:38.6
with the Philippines.
46:40.6
The latest development being
46:41.6
the bilateral defense guidelines.
46:43.6
They're adjusting.
46:44.6
They're adjusting.
46:46.6
Pero, yeah, I mean,
46:47.6
I guess it's hard to,
46:49.6
I don't know, to, you know, to,
46:51.6
it's hard to ignore as well the history.
46:55.6
we also have a problem with
46:57.6
what's the stability of our foreign policy
47:01.6
I mean, we've seen this.
47:02.6
Again, I would say Pakistan, Jordan,
47:05.6
Jordan, in fairness,
47:06.6
medyo matinoy nga.
47:08.6
Pakistan is a mess.
47:10.6
can you even remember
47:11.6
was the last Prime Minister there
47:12.6
from Imran Khan na was siya?
47:16.6
I don't expect you to be an expert
47:17.6
on all the regions.
47:19.6
that's something I do, right?
47:21.6
I've written on Middle East.
47:22.6
I'm familiar with those parts of the world.
47:23.6
And, nangkita ko sila,
47:24.6
binibigyan sila ng mga armas,
47:25.6
billion-billion na eight.
47:27.6
Sino kalaban nila?
47:32.6
kumpara sa hinarap natin
47:33.6
sa West Philippines?
47:35.6
I know na maybe my views
47:37.6
outside the mainstream
47:38.6
in the Philippines.
47:40.6
I had people like
47:42.6
yung mga Republicans,
47:43.6
agreeing with where I come from na,
47:45.6
nagkulang kami sa Pilipinas.
47:46.6
Medyo hindi natin
47:47.6
tinitulungan ng Pilipinas
47:48.6
or prioritizing Philippines.
47:49.6
So, I hope we meet
47:50.6
somewhere in the middle.
47:54.6
US and Philippines,
47:55.6
have been taking the alliance
47:59.6
because we basically
48:02.6
a division of labor
48:03.6
that the Philippines
48:05.6
on internal security
48:08.6
of external defense.
48:14.6
in alliance management.
48:16.6
alliance management.
48:17.6
And it's only now
48:19.6
basically learning
48:20.6
on the Philippine side.
48:25.6
alliance management
48:26.6
because of their experience
48:27.6
with many other nations.
48:28.6
Many other nations.
48:30.6
they're not the Philippines.
48:34.6
It's yung Pilipinas eh.
48:40.6
andyan na yan eh.
48:43.6
both sides are trying,
48:52.6
hopefully we don't fall back
49:01.6
Kaya tayo nandyan,
49:03.6
Kaya ginagawa natin,
49:04.6
wala kasing podcast
49:05.6
kaya malaban tayo eh.
49:10.6
the other flashpoint.
49:13.6
pinag-usapan natin ng Ayungin-Sol
49:14.6
to a certain degree.
49:15.6
Yung Reed Bank naman,
49:17.6
anong mangyari dyan?
49:19.6
mukhang mag-energy crisis na tayo eh.
49:27.6
I'm still waiting for
49:28.6
what happens next
49:29.6
when it comes to Reed Bank
49:32.6
the Philippines will be resuming
49:33.6
its petroleum exploration.
49:36.6
Parang hindi niya masabi.
49:39.6
Inaanood pa natin.
49:42.6
they're supposed to do it
49:43.6
within the summer of this year
49:45.6
in order to make progress.
49:47.6
I know we're towards
49:48.6
the end of our episode
49:52.6
executive briefer?
49:54.6
Reed Bank issue na ito?
49:55.6
At anong difference
49:56.6
ng service contract
49:57.6
sa joint development
49:58.6
or joint exploration?
50:00.6
who are not familiar
50:01.6
with the technicalities of that.
50:12.6
And we were supposed
50:13.6
to have developed
50:17.6
it should have started
50:21.6
And it would have
50:24.6
the Camagong Malampaya Reserve,
50:27.6
beginning to run out.
50:28.6
There are several
50:29.6
service contracts there.
50:43.6
and a couple of others
50:52.6
Sir Jay, sinong mga company
50:54.6
Sir, sinong company
50:56.6
Private companies,
50:57.6
public companies?
51:06.6
Australian company.
51:12.6
but there's one na,
51:15.6
the Chinese national
51:27.6
Ah, sumatagal pala
51:31.6
But they haven't been able
51:37.6
with participation
51:40.6
one of those guys,
51:41.6
and then China could have,
51:44.6
it's a joint exploration,
51:46.6
pero sa totoo lang
51:47.6
service contract,
51:48.6
we could have done that,
51:51.6
The one with Sinok
51:52.6
is actually within
51:54.6
territorial waters,
51:55.6
northern Palawan.
51:58.6
Hindi na kini-claim yun.
51:59.6
So, walang problema yun.
52:00.6
From their perspective
52:01.6
or from their side.
52:02.6
Ang problema nga lang
52:05.6
they tried to spin it
52:06.6
as joint development,
52:09.6
as what they wanted
52:13.6
completely different
52:21.6
It didn't correspond.
52:25.6
service contracts
52:27.6
West Philippine Sea
52:34.6
for a very long time.
52:35.6
They were not being
52:39.6
if you're the oil company,
52:40.6
this is supposed to be
52:42.6
If you're the country
52:43.6
like the Philippines,
52:44.6
this is supposed to
52:45.6
contribute to your
52:48.6
develop it as soon
52:50.6
Yun yung hinihintay
52:54.6
they were to resume
52:55.6
on one or another
52:58.6
wala pambalita sa ngayon.
53:00.6
we don't know if,
53:02.6
My understanding is
53:04.6
we don't talk about.
53:06.6
better don't talk about
53:08.6
is probably happening.
53:11.6
Thank you very much
53:15.6
I want to do a little bit
53:16.6
Ezra Klein style here.
53:17.6
What are the three,
53:19.6
top three readings,
53:20.6
writings of yours
53:25.6
about the technicalities?
53:28.6
the way you write,
53:30.6
for my own academic
53:31.6
and non-academic writings
53:35.6
with the Diplomat Magazine
53:36.6
looking at the origins
53:37.6
of Philippine claims
53:39.6
your work together
53:41.6
Professor Aileen Baviera,
53:42.6
the fantastic professor,
53:43.6
a great inspiration
53:47.6
pag binasa ka nila,
53:48.6
hindi ito nosebleed,
53:50.6
na yung mga lawyerly
53:54.6
it's very friendly.
53:57.6
maybe your own works
53:59.6
yung mga kababayan natin
54:00.6
para magkaroon sila,
54:01.6
para mamulat sila
54:02.6
doon sa technicalities?
54:03.6
The reason I'm saying that,
54:13.6
on-close expert na,
54:20.6
so that hindi tayo
54:22.6
propaganda na yan,
54:23.6
what should they read?
54:26.6
yung primer nga namin
54:29.6
it's a little bit outdated
54:30.6
because we wrote it 2013.
54:32.6
I've been meaning
54:34.6
with the development
54:38.6
is probably enough time
54:39.6
for that update, no?
54:41.6
Primer on the West Philippine Sea
54:42.6
from a Filipino perspective.
54:43.6
It's available online.
54:44.6
It's free online.
54:51.6
I would recommend
54:54.6
Dangerous Grounds
54:57.6
both the Philippine side
54:58.6
and the U.S. side
55:01.6
West Philippine Sea
55:02.6
and South China Sea
55:03.6
provides a good history,
55:04.6
historical background
55:08.6
that's another one
55:16.6
was also very useful
55:17.6
because look at the history
55:19.6
strategic ambiguity
55:22.6
The Kissinger-Nixon
55:23.6
Doctrine of Strategic Ambiguity.
55:25.6
Do you have a more
55:29.6
na people can access
55:31.6
I'm trying to remember.
55:34.6
kasi it was published
55:37.6
the Manila Studies Journal
55:40.6
where that's available.
55:43.6
in a Taiwanese publication.
55:46.6
that one I don't think
55:54.6
Philippines vis-a-vis
56:00.6
protecting our claims
56:03.6
Kalayang Island Group.
56:07.6
I could recommend those.
56:09.6
since I have Rizal
56:14.6
Mabini or someone
56:15.6
who has inspired you?
56:16.6
Ako, Isabela de los Reyes
56:17.6
because as a senator
56:18.6
he was kind of involved
56:19.6
in West Philippine Sea,
56:21.6
Pushing for our claims there.
56:23.6
is there an ilustrado
56:25.6
the Makabayan part in you?
56:32.6
You know, actually I don't.
56:34.6
Sorry, I put you on this one.
56:36.6
Actually, I don't.
56:39.6
ako kasi I'm going back
56:40.6
to the brains of the nation
56:42.6
and to get inspiration
56:45.6
Actually, I go back
56:46.6
to the old writings
56:52.6
more as a fallback.
56:56.6
for the West Philippine Sea
56:57.6
and South China Sea
56:58.6
and I got interested
56:59.6
in the love of the sea,
57:00.6
it was basically because of
57:03.6
learning new things
57:04.6
that other people
57:05.6
didn't know about.
57:07.6
So that was what drove me
57:08.6
to learn more about it.
57:12.6
at a certain point then,
57:14.6
it triggered interest
57:21.6
But I haven't been
57:22.6
centered on any particular issue.
57:23.6
Is there a specific essay
57:24.6
that you go back to?
57:28.6
one way also to appreciate
57:30.6
yung radical bagong book
57:31.6
na ni John Neira,
57:32.6
I think it's very,
57:33.6
very easy and accessible
57:35.6
and affordable always.
57:36.6
Is there a particular essay
57:38.6
that you go back to
57:40.6
to refresh yourself
57:41.6
intellectually, spiritually?
57:49.6
I think we have to have
57:50.6
a separate discussion.
57:52.6
on the spot today.
57:53.6
We have to discuss
57:54.6
yung marites ng China.
57:55.6
But yun na naman,
57:56.6
hindi ko na nabusuhin
57:57.6
kasi ang dami mong
57:58.6
mashare at masabi.
58:00.6
thank you very much,
58:01.6
Professor Dr. Atty.
58:03.6
Talagang inabuso kita
58:04.6
lahat ng dimensions
58:07.6
Maraming salamat, sir.
58:09.6
and talk to you soon.
