01:08.1
Now, Asian markets see a lower open to the new trading week.
01:12.1
Equities here in the region reacting to developments over the weekend from the world's two biggest economies.
01:18.6
In China, consumer inflation rose three-tenths of a percent in April, a notch higher than what analysts had expected.
01:26.6
Factory gate prices, however, remained in the negative.
01:30.0
As they have been since 2022.
01:33.2
The producer price index slid to 2.5 percent, suggesting deflationary pressure remains despite improvements in China's manufacturing sector and in its exports.
01:45.2
Also on China, the Biden administration expected to raise tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.
01:51.2
Local media report the U.S. could quadruple its tariffs and hike levies for other crucial industries this week.
02:00.0
Total U.S. tariff on Chinese EVs will reportedly be raised to 27.5 percent.
02:06.8
Now, bringing in the board, the Nikkei 225 is down ahead of the release of first-quarter growth in Japan, Asia's number two economy.
02:15.6
The KOSPI index, meanwhile, is up, while the ASX is in the red.
02:24.6
A look now at financial markets in the U.S.
02:27.5
Wall Street saw modest gains on Friday.
02:30.0
With all three indices seeing another weekly advance.
02:33.3
Investors stateside will await this week crucial inflation data in the U.S.
02:37.9
And comments from some Federal Reserve officials.
02:43.3
Yields tend to go up, the market tends to go down, and vice versa.
02:47.3
Yields have been dropping a little bit because there are signs that inflation is continuing to tamper.
02:51.7
Next week, we have a CPI number come out.
02:55.1
And this will be one of the last ones that the Fed will have to digest before then.
03:00.1
We'll decide if they're going to cut rates or not.
03:02.5
And we think this is going to be an important one.
03:05.0
While CPI numbers are still around 3.5 percent, they're definitely trending to the 2 percent range.
03:11.9
If we do get signs of a rate cut, we think the market will rally from there.
03:17.0
If not, we could be in a trading range for the foreseeable future.
03:20.9
There's not many catalyst reasons for the market to go up or down at this point.
03:29.0
Taking a look at the U.S. market.
03:30.0
U.S. futures now, they are pointing to a lower open with the S&P and the Nasdaq seen to lead losses.
03:38.6
Back here at home, after last week's data releases, the focus turns to the stock market and the central bank.
03:45.1
This Monday, the Philippine Stock Exchange will see its first initial public offering of the year.
03:50.2
Oceana Gold Philippines rings the bell when the local bourse opens later at 9.30.
03:55.5
Now, some details on its IPO.
03:57.8
Final price was set at P13.
04:00.0
And 33 centavos for 456 million secondary shares.
04:05.8
Oceana Gold is the first mining firm to list at the PSE since 2012 or 2022 with a ticker symbol OGP.
04:14.9
It will seek to raise as much as 7 billion pesos from public listing.
04:19.6
Also this week, results of the latest MSCI rebalancing are out on Tuesday, May 14th.
04:30.0
And finally, on Thursday, the Philippine Central Bank's Monetary Board meets for its third rate setting of the year.
04:37.0
Monetary authorities are expected to keep the borrowing rates steady as concerns over inflation and the Philippine peso's weakening linger.
04:45.8
A survey by Business World shows 17 out of 19 analysts expect the BSP to maintain its benchmark rate at a 17-year high of 6.5%.
05:00.0
Now, here's a look at corporate headlines you might have missed from last week.
05:05.6
Philinvest, REIT announces second quarterly dividends out on June 7th.
05:10.9
The Gotianan-led firm set the amount at 0.06 pesos per outstanding common shares.
05:18.2
Now, this would bring Philarty's rate for year-to-date dividends to 1 peso and 12 centavos a share.
05:26.0
The Q2 dividends will be for stockholders of record.
05:29.5
As of today, the Q2 dividends will be for stockholders of record.
05:29.8
As of today, the Q2 dividends will be for stockholders of record.
05:30.0
Meanwhile, Converge ICT names a new chief finance officer.
05:35.8
Taking on that role is Robert Leo Yu, a veteran corporate financial professional.
05:41.9
He was previously affiliated with Asian private equity firm Creador.
05:46.6
Yu was also a consultant for Converge before its market or stock market debut in 2020.
05:54.4
Now, foreign direct investments into the Philippines surged past $1 billion in February.
05:60.0
Now, foreign direct investments into the Philippines surged past $1 billion in February.
06:00.7
Data released by the Philippine Central Bank showed FDI net inflows during the month reached $1.4 billion, up 29% year-on-year.
06:10.7
The Netherlands and Japan were the top sources of FDI during that period.
06:17.0
These were channeled mostly in the financial and insurance sectors as well as in manufacturing and real estate.
06:23.4
This brings the cumulative FDI net inflows in the first two months of 2024 to $2.3 billion.
06:30.7
It was up nearly half from the $1.5 billion year-on-year.
06:36.8
The BSP, however, noted growth in the FDI inflows was tempered by a contraction, in fact,
06:45.1
in non-residence net investments in debt instruments,
06:48.3
which consist mainly of borrowing between foreign direct investors and their subsidiaries or affiliates in the Philippines.
06:58.8
The Philippines' net net investment in debt instruments is now up nearly half from the $1.5 billion year-on-year.
07:00.1
The Philippines is projected to remain the world's largest rice importer in 2025.
07:04.5
The United States Department of Agriculture expects the country's total rice imports to reach 4.2 million metric tons next year.
07:13.0
This is 100,000 metric tons higher than its estimate for 2024.
07:17.9
The U.S. agency cites for its forecast the continued increase in rice consumption in the Philippines,
07:24.1
driven by population and tourism.
07:26.5
If the projection materializes, it would be the third consecutive year.
07:30.1
The country would, in fact, import the most rice in the global market.
07:37.3
The Philippines is the seventh largest rice producer in the world, behind Thailand and Vietnam.
07:42.8
Now, rice imports account for about a fifth of the country's annual supply, based on government data.
07:51.8
Subsidies to Philippine government-owned and controlled corporations were at 19.59 billion pesos in the first quarter.
07:60.0
The Treasury Bureau says that figure is 8% lower than the 21.31 billion pesos recorded in the same period last year.
08:10.7
The National Irrigation Administration secured the biggest subsidy at 10.3 billion pesos.
08:15.7
It was followed by the National Food Administration with 2.3 billion and the National Electrification Administration with over 2 billion pesos.
08:28.3
Business Tycoon Money Podcasts.
08:30.0
Pangilinan's group has formalized its interest in buying the government's stake in the Subic-Clark-Tarlac Expressway.
08:37.1
SETex is the country's longest expressway at 53.77 kilometers.
08:42.8
The Basis Conversion and Development Authority says the MVP group has submitted a proposal to acquire its stake in SETex.
08:51.5
Now, a technical working group was also identified and formed to identify the proper valuation of the acquisition price.
08:60.0
Pangilinan, who chairs the now-private Metro Pacific Investments Corporation, operates six major expressways in the Philippines.
09:10.1
The Philippine Education Department assures the public revisions to the senior high school curriculum will not delay its implementation,
09:18.7
which include additional technical vocational training for students.
09:23.2
Now, Joyce Balancio reports.
09:25.9
All the four strands of the senior high school program in public schools.
09:30.0
The schools will soon incorporate the Technical and Vocational Education and Training, or TVET, in its subjects.
09:35.7
This follows the signing of a joint memorandum circular by the Department of Education, Commission on Higher Education, Technical Education and Skills Development Authority, and the Department of Labor and Employment on Friday.
09:48.9
This aims to equip learners with industry-relevant skills and knowledge necessary for their workforce readiness and employability.
09:56.7
The current strands of senior high school are...
09:60.0
The General Academic, Humanities and Social Sciences, Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics, and lastly, Accountancy, Business and Management.
10:10.2
Across all tracks, embed yan. So whether you're in the academic track, not necessarily tech book eh, pwede sa academic track, at least equip na sila ng skills, they can take the certification, mas magiging attractive sila for employers.
10:25.8
DepEd is currently revising the senior high school curriculum, which is expected...
10:30.0
It is expected to be piloted in schools in academic year 2025 to 2026. It says, these additional adjustments will not delay the implementation of the new curriculum.
10:41.4
So napakaganda ng timing na ito dahil since we are now reviewing the senior high school curriculum, isasabay na po.
10:47.4
DepEd is also coordinating with DOLE to assess the industry demands to match the skills needed by the K-12 graduates.
10:54.8
TESTA, for its part, commits to help DepEd in the curriculum change.
10:60.0
The bookkeeping NC3. Then we also have yung customer services and customer care, kasama din po doon.
11:07.5
Tinitingdan din po natin, papaano mailagay yung mga bread and pastry production natin, entrepreneurship.
11:13.4
Andami o, kasi tinitingnan natin yung different sectors, and then papaano siya mailagay.
11:20.0
Senator Sherwin Gatchalian, the chairperson of Senate Committee on Basic Education, lauds the revisions in the senior high school curriculum.
11:30.0
Those who were dissatisfied with the K-12 program continued to increase.
11:34.9
Based on a series of surveys, his team had commissioned in 2019, 2022, and 2023.
11:42.2
He said respondents didn't see the value of adding two years in basic education.
11:47.0
We commissioned again a survey in 2023, September of 2023, and the results satisfied 32%.
11:58.0
And dissatisfied 52%.
12:01.3
Sabi ko, patay na.
12:03.1
More than half of our population is dissatisfied with K-12.
12:07.8
They're not happy with K-12. In fact, they hate K-12.
12:11.2
He is also pushing for the passage of a law which will mandate government to accept senior high school graduates.
12:17.7
He noted that the current standards in government are not suited for K-12 graduates.
12:22.8
Under the proposed bill, the Civil Service Commission will be tasked to formulate guidelines,
12:28.0
for the acceptance of senior high school graduates in selected positions.
12:32.4
Taasan yung sweldo at bibigyan ng specific na pwesto ang mga senior high school sa gobyerno.
12:38.9
Kung pumasa sila of course ng interview, ng mga assessment,
12:43.1
pero meron ng specific na trabaho para sa ating mga senior high school.
12:47.5
Limited position but ito from local government, from barangay to local government,
12:51.8
all the way to national government.
12:53.0
Meanwhile, senior high school students who have completed the technical vocational livelihood track
12:58.0
or the TVL will no longer have to pay for the assessment and issuance of national certifications
13:04.1
that they may need as requirements for employment.
13:07.1
This follows the signing of a joint memorandum circular by the Department of Education
13:11.7
and the Technical Education and Skills Development Authority on Friday
13:15.7
that aims to institutionalize the mandatory assessment of grade 12 learners.
13:20.7
Libre na po yung assessment ng ating mga senior high school graduates sa Tibet.
13:26.9
Pag magkakaroon sila ng NC1 or NC2, libre na po yan.
13:31.0
Ngayon, aside from yung libreng assessment ng ating mga learners na wala noon.
13:35.6
Teachers will also be trained to become assessors,
13:38.5
while schools will also be accredited to become assessment centers.
13:42.7
He stressed that securing a national certificate is a good boost for potential job seekers.
13:49.0
Pag bumasa sila, makakuha sila ng NC1, NC2, automatic yan.
13:53.3
Magagamit na yan pagkahanap ng trabaho.
13:55.9
Pagkakaroon sila ng NC1, NC2, automatic yan.
13:56.5
Pagkakaroon sila ng NC1, NC2, automatic yan.
13:56.7
Pagkakaroon sila ng NC1, NC2, automatic yan.
13:56.8
Pagkakaroon sila ng NC1, NC2, automatic yan.
13:56.9
The National Government has allotted P538 million pesos in the 2024 National Budget.
14:04.7
Joyce Balancho, ABS-CBN News.
14:10.3
A supermarkets group vows support for food manufacturers' pledges
14:14.9
to hold back price increases of their goods for the next two months.
14:19.1
The Philippine Amalgamated Supermarkets Association says
14:21.8
they will honor the move by not implementing price increases themselves.
14:26.2
However, the group adds that if they do so,
14:29.6
it would be on non-essential items.
14:32.5
The group, however, admitted it may find it hard to keep the price of rice stable
14:36.8
during a looming wage hike,
14:39.7
to which it is expected to result in a 4% increase in commodity prices.
14:47.8
The Philippines and Singapore ink a deal to upgrade air connectivity between the two countries.
14:53.3
In a statement, the Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines,
14:57.6
said the latest deal allows the two countries to offer up to 150 weekly codeshare services,
15:04.1
that is to carry passengers between Singapore and Manila.
15:08.2
Codeshare is an arrangement between two airlines to share the same flight.
15:13.1
There would also be no limit on codeshare services
15:16.0
between Singapore and other points in the Philippines.
15:19.0
It also now allows carriers from the Philippines
15:21.5
that are owned or controlled by foreign nationals
15:24.1
to access the traffic rights,
15:26.0
It's exchanged in the deal as long as their principal place of business is in the Philippines.
15:32.3
Previously, only airlines that were substantially owned and effectively controlled by Filipinos could do so.
15:38.7
The latest deal is an upgrade of the 2010 Bilateral Air Services Agreement between the two countries.
15:47.6
A lending firm is setting aside 10 billion pesos to help small businesses in the Philippines grow.
15:53.7
Jackie Pascual with the full story.
15:56.0
Hundreds of exhibitors joined the 14th Philippine SME Business Expo in Pasay with organizers saying this is a good sign for the small and medium-sized enterprises sector.
16:08.6
There are various stalls offering business solutions, equipment, and other services or programs to help SMEs.
16:15.9
Different trends lang every season, but in terms of are we growing, yes, we continuously grow.
16:22.2
Esquire Financing, a lending company, seeing huge growth.
16:25.7
As it expects more Filipinos to start a business or expand existing businesses this year.
16:32.1
It is now allotting around 10 billion pesos for SME loans this year, up from 6 billion last year.
16:39.5
You're buying new equipment, you're buying, for example, mag-expand yung production, you want to expand your production line,
16:45.7
which is very common with, let's say, food businesses.
16:48.1
Build, you know, you're building, you know, a commissary, or you're expanding your, let's say, your brick and mortar stores.
16:55.7
With 100,000 clients so far, the company is eyeing to grow that to 100,000 in the next three to four years.
17:01.9
Core reveals that so far, many borrowers pay up, a good indication businesses are booming.
17:08.2
Over 98% are actually paid off.
17:10.7
So we're, historically, we've had clients na, on average, will borrow at least five times from us.
17:18.4
Meaning to say, like, you know, they start off with a small amount, and then nakikita namin lumalaki yung business.
17:22.7
So, you know, then they need more funding to grow.
17:25.7
Continuously grow.
17:26.7
They, however, have some suggestions to make it easier to start a business in the country.
17:31.7
If we're talking about the ease of doing business sa buong kalahatan, I don't really think there's one center that I, like, I could, like, go now,
17:39.8
and then I will know everything that I need to know on how to put up a business.
17:44.3
Organizers hope that businesses will eventually graduate from being SMEs to becoming large corporations
17:49.9
to further fuel the growth of the economy, generating more jobs for Filipinos.
17:55.7
Jackie Pascual, ABS-CBN News.
18:00.6
Now, here's a look at the other stories we're tracking today.
18:03.9
At 8 in the morning, Commodore J. Tariela of the Philippine Coast Guard will give an update
18:08.7
on the government's transparency campaign over the West Philippine Sea.
18:13.2
At 10 in the morning, the Philippine Senate will continue its investigation on the so-called PIDEA leaks.
18:19.7
And at 3 in the afternoon, we will be covering the oath-taking ceremonies of generals and flag officers,
18:25.7
of the Philippine Armed Forces, to be led by President Marcos.
18:30.9
We're taking a quick break now.
18:32.5
Up next, we take a look at how the PSE will open this week's trade with Jafe Tantianko of Pilsak Financial.
18:38.7
Market Edge will be right back.
18:55.7
Welcome back. You're still watching Market Edge.
19:11.5
The headlines, an analyst warns China's alleged reclamation attempt in Escoda Shoal is a security threat to the Philippines.
19:19.7
The Philippine Immigration Bureau calls for an urgent interagency action on the alleged influx of Chinese students.
19:25.7
And the U.S. Department of Agriculture projects the Philippines to remain the world's largest rice importer in 2025.
19:37.2
For about eight minutes from opening of the Philippine Stop Exchange,
19:41.1
Philippine shares saw yet another weekly decline last week following the release of a slew of economic data,
19:47.4
specifically first quarter growth of 5.7 percent.
19:51.1
Now, the market will try to recover after settling at the 6,500.
19:57.2
And joining us now for his trading guidance and other economic stories and insights is Jafe Tantianko of Pilsak Financial.
20:05.9
Jafe, good morning.
20:08.1
Good morning, Stanley. Good to see you again.
20:10.5
Good to see you again.
20:11.5
Now, all eyes on Thursday for the BSP policy announcement.
20:14.5
Consensus is, of course, steady rates at 6.5 percent now.
20:18.4
But what about cutting rates or even raising them?
20:21.7
Are those even a consideration given that, you know,
20:25.1
some analysts and economists are seeing actual cuts or rate increase, in fact?
20:31.2
I mean, is that a remote possibility or just wishful thinking?
20:36.6
Well, for Thursday's meeting, our projection is that the BSP will hold policy rates as is.
20:45.4
So they're going to keep it at current levels.
20:48.0
They are to consider moving forward,
20:54.1
and we'll see how inflation will be, though, if you're going to look at if you're going to look at the recent data so far for if you're going to look at the recent data so far, it's, you know, it's somewhat supportive of policy easing.
21:12.2
I mean, inflation has went up, but it was below expectations.
21:17.7
At the same time, GDP was also below expectations.
21:21.2
So if you have a, you know,
21:24.1
a below expectations inflation and a below expectations GDP growth,
21:28.9
they are good recipes for a rate cut for the BSP.
21:32.9
However, I believe that the BSP would want to see more concerning the inflation side.
21:38.4
They want to see if the trend will continue, meaning to say that inflation will remain somewhat suppressed, that it won't, you know, get above the upper end of the government's target.
21:54.7
we may be moving towards a rate cut sooner rather than later.
21:59.6
At the same time,
22:00.7
I believe the BSP will be watching out for the of course,
22:07.1
they'll be watching out for signs from the Federal Reserve as well.
22:11.0
And we have the data that is,
22:15.2
which is the April inflation rate of the U.S.
22:20.2
if April inflation rate in the U.S.
22:23.6
then that would also point to a near rate cut for the Fed and a near rate cut for the Fed would,
22:30.3
would also lead to the likelihood of a near rate cut by the BSP.
22:34.9
I'd like to go back to inflation.
22:36.0
Here's the thing.
22:37.0
Inflation is seen to accelerate after we actually realize the full effects of El Nino that's in the coming months still.
22:43.8
How are you plotting this now?
22:45.2
Inflation for the next few months,
22:48.0
maybe a month or two?
22:51.9
we still do see the upside risks for inflation.
23:00.1
these risks are seen to stem primarily from the supply side.
23:04.7
As you've mentioned,
23:06.7
our problem is still El Nino and El Nino is hitting us both at the food and at the energy side.
23:17.2
But these are non-core factors or these are volatile factors.
23:21.9
If you're going to look at the demand side,
23:25.6
if you're going to look at the latest data that we have,
23:28.9
core inflation declined from March to April.
23:33.7
So we're already seeing demand side pressures easing.
23:37.8
And as we all know,
23:39.1
this is what the BSP is more concerned with,
23:41.9
the demand side of inflation.
23:43.9
supply side inflation is something that is already outside of the grasp of the BSP.
23:50.8
have an impact on inflation.
23:53.8
But if moving forward,
23:55.7
we see that while we do see these upside risks to inflation stemming from supply side,
24:03.2
if we see these things not staying longer,
24:06.2
meaning they won't have that lasting effect on inflation expectations,
24:11.3
then it will give room for the BSP to considering cutting rates.
24:16.5
speaking of the BSP now,
24:20.1
when inflation remains elevated,
24:21.9
and growth rates do not seem to be impacted by the headwinds at all,
24:26.4
not at least not as much as we've witnessed last week,
24:29.9
GDP was still okay.
24:32.1
will this sort of ambiguity support a more hawkish or dovish stance by the BSP?
24:37.2
What are your expectations as to the kind of messaging that you will hear on Thursday?
24:41.7
If you're going to look at the GDP data,
24:48.1
it's still a respectable growth.
24:51.2
But somehow you will also see that the BSP's monetary tightening already had an effect.
24:58.6
mainly if you're going to look at investments,
25:00.7
investments grew by just,
25:02.5
by I think a little above 1% year on year.
25:07.7
So this is indicative that our businesses are already having a hard time raising capital,
25:13.9
doing investment spending because interest rates are elevated.
25:17.6
And to some extent,
25:19.3
interest rates also affect the GDP.
25:20.8
It also affect consumer spending.
25:24.6
Take note that some of our consumers,
25:27.0
they depend on credit to buy goods and services.
25:32.1
with the elevated interest rates that we have,
25:36.4
that is somehow suppressing consumers as well.
25:42.4
So if you're going to look,
25:45.4
if you're going to look at the data consumption grew by just 4.7% year on year,
25:50.2
it's still a respectable growth.
25:50.8
We're already seeing the decline of consumption during the pandemic days.
26:02.1
So we're already seeing the monetary tightening of the BSP affecting both inflation and economic growth.
26:10.2
So in terms of messaging,
26:14.2
we expect to hear this.
26:20.2
at least a little more consideration on the part of the BSP that somehow the mission is getting accomplished because demand side pressures to inflation are being suppressed.
26:31.5
While at the same time,
26:35.5
somehow growth is,
26:37.5
being affected already.
26:39.5
So those are the things that we're hoping to hear on their Thursday meeting.
26:46.5
the BSP also remains cautious not to cut rates prematurely,
26:48.5
but also because of the impact of COVID-19.
26:49.5
Also because of the currency differential that needs to be maintained.
26:52.5
Is peso stabilizing now or do you see its weakness persisting?
26:58.5
With respect to the local currency,
27:00.5
as mentioned before,
27:04.5
the last time that we've discussed,
27:06.5
our trading range for the peso is 57.58.
27:12.5
we've seen a good foreign direct investment data.
27:15.5
February FDI data was,
27:17.5
was a very strong one.
27:20.5
And we hope that this would help in stabilizing the peso.
27:27.5
let's pause for a moment.
27:28.5
Let's put a pin on that.
27:29.5
I'm bringing you live to the PSEI now for the debut of OGP.
27:38.5
Congratulations to Roshanna Gold Philippines Inc.
27:41.5
on its IPO listing and stock market debut.
27:44.5
Thank you once again to our on-site and virtual guests
27:47.5
for joining us this morning.
27:57.5
We just witnessed the debut of Roshanna Gold Philippines.
28:00.5
Now, Roshanna Gold Philippines Incorporated or OGP is,
28:05.5
a producer of gold and copper in the Philippines
28:08.5
under Roshanna Gold Corporation.
28:10.5
OGP operates the DDPO Gold and Copper Mine in Nueva Ecija
28:15.5
in Northern Luzon.
28:17.5
The mine operations under OGP,
28:18.5
mine operations under the Financial or Technical Assistance Agreement
28:22.5
with the government currently mining at DDPO
28:25.5
involving extracting of ore
28:27.5
from both underground and surface sources.
28:31.5
Extracted ore is then processed
28:33.5
and the company's plant produces gold,
28:36.5
ore and copper concentrates.
28:38.5
OGP is the first to list in the Philippine Stock Exchange
28:41.5
for this year at 2024
28:44.5
and the first mining firm to list since 2012.
28:48.5
So, that is a highlight.
28:50.5
It is selling up to 456 million secondary shares
28:54.5
owned by its parent company, OGP,
28:57.5
hoping to raise 7 billion,
28:59.5
about 7 billion at an IPO offer price of 13 pesos and 33,
29:05.5
which is selling at a discount
29:07.5
or at least lower than the maximum offer price,
29:11.5
the original price of 17 pesos and 28 centavos apiece.
29:16.5
Now, the offer period for that,
29:18.5
that issue ran from April 29 to May 5
29:21.5
with listing, of course, set today.
29:24.5
And we witnessed the Philippine Stock Exchange
29:27.5
opened at the 6523 level this morning
29:32.5
with OGP shares currently down 2.4% at 13 pesos apiece.
29:39.5
Now, I'd like to go back to Japet Antianco.
29:41.5
We were speaking a while ago about the rate differential
29:45.5
that the Banco Central of the Philippines is trying to keep
29:48.5
to keep, of course, currency stable.
29:50.5
Japet, you were saying?
29:53.5
Yeah, as mentioned a while ago,
29:55.5
foreign direct investment data for February has been strong
29:58.5
and we're hoping that this will help our pesos stabilize.
30:02.5
However, moving forward,
30:04.5
we believe that, you know,
30:06.5
our pesos are going to remain data-dependent.
30:08.5
So, investors are going to, you know,
30:10.5
our currency watchers are going to watch out
30:12.5
for, you know, further data that could affect
30:16.5
the interest rate movement
30:18.5
in the US and in the Philippines.
30:20.5
So, of course, what's crucial with this will be the,
30:24.5
will be first the April inflation data in the US.
30:28.5
If April inflation data in the US is favorable,
30:32.5
then it would point to rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
30:36.5
And if, you know, if we see signs that the Federal Reserve
30:40.5
will really be cutting rates soon,
30:42.5
then this would strengthen the local currency.
30:44.5
At the same time,
30:46.5
at the same time,
30:50.5
the PASP, of course,
30:52.5
currency watchers are going to,
30:56.5
monitor their meeting.
30:58.5
They're going to, you know,
31:00.5
look for hints as to whether they will cut rates
31:04.5
If they do see such signs
31:06.5
that the peso, I'm sorry,
31:08.5
that the interest rates will be cut soon,
31:10.5
then that, you know,
31:12.5
that's going to be,
31:14.5
that's going to put, you know,
31:16.5
depreciation pressure to the peso.
31:18.5
So it all depends on who's going to give,
31:22.5
who's going to give signs first
31:25.5
and who's going to hold.
31:28.5
if the Federal Reserve will, you know,
31:30.5
give signs of easing,
31:32.5
whereas the BSP will just hold,
31:34.5
then it's going to strengthen the peso.
31:36.5
If it's the other way around,
31:38.5
the BSP gives signs of easing,
31:40.5
whereas the Federal Reserve will hold,
31:42.5
then it's going to weaken the peso.
31:44.5
And if both will give signs,
31:46.5
if both will give signs of easing,
31:49.5
then that's just going to be neutral for the peso.
31:53.5
There's so much possibilities there.
31:54.5
And now that you mentioned Fed easing, actually,
31:57.5
I mean, what indicators, Japheth,
31:59.5
do you wish to see
32:00.5
or do you think should be evident now
32:02.5
for rate cutting to happen
32:03.5
within the last quarter again of the year?
32:06.5
The reason I'm asking is because there's this,
32:08.5
you know, renewed optimism in U.S. markets,
32:11.5
assuming now that the Federal Reserve can cut rates,
32:15.5
not later this year, not next year,
32:17.5
but actually within the last quarter,
32:20.5
early last quarter of 2024.
32:23.5
So what are your thoughts on that?
32:25.5
Well, with respect to the Federal Reserve,
32:28.5
these hopes that have risen,
32:32.5
these were driven, as far as I know,
32:34.5
these were driven by the employment data,
32:39.5
by the latest employment data in the U.S.,
32:42.5
which came in less than expected.
32:44.5
So somehow they're seeing a weakening
32:46.5
of the labor market in the U.S.
32:48.5
And of course that is, you know,
32:50.5
that is a factor that points out
32:53.5
to the possibility of easing.
32:55.5
But again, we also have to see inflation data
32:59.5
moving favorably in the U.S.
33:01.5
I mean, if you're going to look at the messaging,
33:05.5
the narratives of Federal Reserve officials,
33:07.5
they're always saying that, you know,
33:09.5
they don't have that strong confidence
33:13.5
that great confidence yet,
33:16.5
that inflation is moving substantially
33:20.5
towards their target, which is 2%.
33:22.5
So I believe that's what we need to see primarily,
33:25.5
that, you know, inflation in the U.S.
33:28.5
would make great steps moving towards that 2% target.
33:32.5
If we see a combination of both,
33:34.5
inflation substantially heading to the 2% target,
33:37.5
while at the same time there's, you know,
33:39.5
somewhat this lingering weakness
33:41.5
in the labor market in the U.S.,
33:43.5
then, you know, that would, you know,
33:46.5
draw rate cuts by the Federal Reserve near.
33:50.5
All right, Japheth.
33:51.5
We're trying to look at the opening numbers again,
33:53.5
actually the update of those numbers.
33:55.5
Five minutes after trade opening
33:57.5
at the Philippine Stock Exchange,
33:59.5
the index is now 0.5% higher at 6564.
34:05.5
Speaking of markets now,
34:07.5
how likely is this week another range trading week
34:10.5
at the 63 to 6800 level?
34:13.5
It depends on how data will play out.
34:22.5
For now, we're seeing upward bias for the local market,
34:27.5
but it's going to be a limited one.
34:29.5
Trading range for the local market on our end
34:32.5
is from 64 to 67.
34:35.5
For now, as mentioned, we're seeing an upward bias,
34:39.5
but this is going to be driven primarily
34:41.5
by bargain hunting.
34:42.5
The market has already been falling
34:44.5
for two straight weeks,
34:45.5
and of course, it brings the market
34:48.5
to attractive levels.
34:50.5
PE ratio is just at around, you know,
34:53.5
a little above 13 times,
34:54.5
which is still below its last five years average
34:58.5
of a little above 18 times.
35:00.5
So there's room for bargain hunting,
35:02.5
and if you're going to see our, you know,
35:05.5
first quarter results,
35:07.5
whilst they have been mixed,
35:08.5
majority have been good so far.
35:10.5
They have shown improvement.
35:12.5
They have shown improvement compared
35:13.5
to last year's figures.
35:15.5
So those are positives for the local market,
35:18.5
but I think that, you know,
35:21.5
what investors are still ultimately looking at
35:25.5
for this week is, again,
35:27.5
the April inflation data in the US
35:30.5
as well as the BSP's policy decision.
35:33.5
While the BSP policy decision is already expected
35:40.5
but, you know, investors are really looking
35:42.5
forward to the signals
35:44.5
that they're going to be giving.
35:45.5
How's the policy outlook going to be?
35:48.5
If they see, you know, signs pointing towards
35:53.5
policy easing soon by the BSP,
35:55.5
then that would help the market, you know,
35:58.5
rise up, possibly even near the 6-7 resistance level.
36:04.5
Let's just bring in Oceana Gold Philippines'
36:07.5
debut today, Japheth.
36:08.5
You know, currently 62 million.
36:11.5
Has so far been raised for that stock.
36:13.5
It is down 2.7% now in the neighborhood of,
36:18.5
yeah, 13 pesos and 02 centavos.
36:22.5
Now, how are you plotting its debut performance right now?
36:27.5
Well, for Oceana, we did our study
36:31.5
and based on our study, Oceana is,
36:35.5
using relative valuation,
36:37.5
we do see that Oceana Gold is relatively overvalued.
36:41.5
It's based on its, our forward PE for Oceana Gold
36:48.5
is a little above nine times.
36:50.5
If my memory serves me right, that's 9.3.
36:53.5
And that is above the industry average.
36:57.5
Its fellow, its fellow, its fellow, its peers,
37:01.5
its industrial peers,
37:02.5
which are also into gold and copper mining,
37:05.5
their average PE ratio is just a little above eight times.
37:11.5
Oceana Gold is, you know, quite high.
37:14.5
So, that's relatively overvalued.
37:16.5
At the same time,
37:19.5
whilst we do expect financial performance to improve this year,
37:25.5
it's not enough to justify the offer price,
37:29.5
which is at 13.33.
37:31.5
And with Oceana Gold,
37:33.5
I mean, if you're going to look at the net proceeds,
37:36.5
so all are, you know, from secondary shares.
37:38.5
So, of course, it's not going to add,
37:40.5
it's going to add to the prospects of the company.
37:46.5
We do see the company as relatively overvalued.
37:49.5
So, we did not recommend subscribing.
37:53.5
Our target price for Oceana Gold is at 11, around 11 pesos.
37:58.5
Okay. So, that's still about a peso away, actually, Japheth.
38:01.5
We continue to monitor developments at the Philippine Stock Exchange,
38:04.5
of course, today because of that debut.
38:06.5
Again, Japheth Antianco of Field Stocks Financial.
38:08.5
Thanks a lot for joining us.
38:10.5
You're very much welcome, staff.
38:13.5
Let's sift through some of the top headlines
38:16.5
from major business papers right now.
38:18.5
From Business World,
38:19.5
this MIN developer, Cebu Landmasters,
38:22.5
eyeing further expansion in Luzon
38:24.5
and is considering a development venture in Cavite Province.
38:28.5
From the Philippine Star,
38:29.5
the Budget Department says the government has released 5 trillion pesos,
38:33.5
or about 60 or 86 percent of the 5.7 trillion peso national budget.
38:40.5
And from the Philippine Daily Inquirer,
38:42.5
the Philippines and the United Arab Emirates will begin in July
38:46.5
the next round of negotiations for their planned free trade deal.
38:50.5
We're taking a quick break now.
38:52.5
Coming up, British Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines' Chris Nelson
38:56.5
joins us for our monthly chat.
38:58.5
Market Edge will be right back.
39:10.5
We'll be right back.
39:40.5
We're still watching Market Edge.
39:42.5
Now, the Philippines and the United Kingdom continue to make strides
39:45.5
in advancing their trade relations.
39:47.5
To discuss this and more, we have with us Chris Nelson.
39:49.5
He's the Executive Director of the British Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines.
39:52.5
Hi, Chris. Good morning.
39:54.5
Good morning, Stanley.
39:55.5
And good morning to all your viewers.
39:58.5
Last week, the British Chamber signed a memorandum of understanding
40:00.5
with the Anti-Red Tape Authority of the Philippines.
40:03.5
Now, this is, of course, part of the launch of policy pioneers driving economic competitiveness.
40:10.5
So what significant changes have you seen with the ease of doing business in the Philippines?
40:15.5
And maybe perhaps you can tell us how the Driving Economic Competitiveness Initiative can help.
40:22.5
I mean, I think, first of all, it's a very important initiative.
40:24.5
We've seen this development obviously started also in the Duterte administration.
40:30.5
And I just want to emphasize one clear point, Stanley.
40:33.5
When we've done our trade missions in the U.K., ease of doing business is a key factor.
40:39.5
Now, during the pandemic,
40:40.5
the event we had on Friday, it was emphasized by Secretary Perez about the one-stop shop,
40:47.5
about digitalization, and we've seen beginnings of that.
40:51.5
I think there's a lot of work to be done.
40:53.5
I think that will be recognized.
40:55.5
But there are movements going forward.
40:57.5
What we want to see is attracting trade and investment here, getting more companies,
41:03.5
getting small to medium-sized enterprises who are showing a great interest.
41:07.5
So I think digitalization,
41:09.5
the fact that we've been recognized as an ARTA champion,
41:13.5
and we will continue to push these developments back to the U.K.,
41:18.5
and it's part of the overall drive to keep on opening up the Philippine economy
41:23.5
and make it as competitive with others in Southeast Asia.
41:27.5
You speak about cybersecurity, digitalization.
41:30.5
I mean, you know, the government is talking about this for the longest time.
41:34.5
Are you actually seeing progress in the way we adapt and in the way we improve cybersecurity?
41:38.5
In the way we improve cybersecurity initiatives in the Philippines?
41:42.5
Because, you know, there are still reports of a lot of websites,
41:46.5
even government websites, getting hacked.
41:48.5
So it speaks a lot about the kind of cybersecurity we have at present.
41:53.5
Well, cybersecurity is a worldwide issue, and it's not just impacting the Philippines.
41:58.5
In that context, I would stress two key points.
42:01.5
The first is the Cybersecurity Act and the Anti-Financial Account Scamming Act,
42:07.5
both priorities of the government.
42:10.5
We think that's very important to get passed in this period,
42:15.5
so we really would urge those to be passed.
42:17.5
We had an event in March with one of our key members, that's CyberQ,
42:22.5
highlighting and working, that was actually a presentation by DICT.
42:27.5
So cybersecurity is a key issue, particularly obviously for the financial sector.
42:33.5
That's why it's important for those two acts to be passed.
42:37.5
I think awareness is going up steadily,
42:40.5
and we will continue to see that,
42:42.5
and we strongly urge the passage of those key legislation,
42:46.5
which will reinforce,
42:48.5
and I think make companies and the public even more aware of this key issue.
42:54.5
Of course, Chris, you know consistency and even sustainability or something,
42:59.5
or the activity or the cybersecurity initiatives as being sustainable.
43:04.5
These are, of course, very important.
43:06.5
How do you wish to see government improve in the areas of consistency
43:11.5
and sustained initiatives or activities?
43:15.5
Well, I think the first is, Stanley,
43:17.5
that we're looking for getting this legislation passed as quickly as possible.
43:21.5
Let me also just mention of the other key priorities,
43:24.5
which is the passage of the Anti-Agricultural Economic Sabotage Act.
43:28.5
We know there has been discussions that could be passed this Congress,
43:33.5
hopefully before, I believe, June 19th.
43:36.5
There are two versions of that.
43:39.5
We have some concerns in terms of the amendment of import entries.
43:44.5
I think that should be looked at.
43:45.5
But overall, the need is to pass this act.
43:47.5
Why do I mention that, Stanley?
43:49.5
In terms of consistency,
43:51.5
we are very much in favor of the key legislations,
43:55.5
along with other business groups.
43:57.5
And we just like to see those passed as soon as possible,
44:01.5
knowing in terms of legislation, Stanley,
44:03.5
you've still got to pass the implementing rules
44:07.5
and then let's see that carried forward.
44:09.5
So, to answer your point,
44:11.5
passage of legislation
44:13.5
and continuing opening up of the economy on a consistent basis
44:17.5
is what we're looking for.
44:19.5
All right, Chris.
44:20.5
On another matter,
44:21.5
the basis conversion and development authority
44:23.5
offering more collaboration with the United Kingdom
44:26.5
in the country's economic zones.
44:28.5
Now, the British Chamber of Commerce was part of a recent roadshow.
44:32.5
If you can share with us the focus of that forum,
44:34.5
and initial agreements, maybe?
44:37.5
That was on May 3rd.
44:39.5
It was a very good event.
44:41.5
And I think it highlighted three of the key projects.
44:44.5
The first is affordable housing in the new Clark City.
44:48.5
And I'd just like to emphasize that the foreign commercial,
44:53.5
part of the British Embassy and UK government,
44:56.5
has been supporting that.
44:58.5
The second is to build up a food hub in Clark.
45:02.5
And the third is,
45:04.5
this is the second runway for the Clark International Airport.
45:09.5
there's the important emphasis on the long-haul railway.
45:12.5
All of these projects,
45:14.5
in particular infrastructure,
45:16.5
is obviously attractive to companies.
45:19.5
And obviously it's good,
45:20.5
as we've been discussing,
45:21.5
I saw from your previous interview,
45:23.5
infrastructure and spending on infrastructure is important
45:26.5
because that's what's key
45:27.5
and also to drive the GDP growth rate,
45:30.5
which as we know,
45:31.5
amended back or fell back slightly
45:35.5
So we're optimistic
45:37.5
and I think the projects were outlined very well.
45:40.5
And we look forward to working with BCDA
45:42.5
and to continue to highlight to UK companies and investors
45:46.5
the opportunities in Clark and other BCD areas.
45:51.5
as you mentioned the GDP, Chris,
45:53.5
we just saw very important numbers last week.
45:55.5
Inflation was not as high,
45:57.5
but still a bit concerning,
46:04.5
but still strong,
46:05.5
all things considered.
46:06.5
Now, from the standpoint of foreign investments,
46:08.5
are those numbers on the right path already?
46:11.5
Is it encouraging enough for UK businesses to come in
46:15.5
and consider investing in the Philippines?
46:18.5
I think they are.
46:19.5
I mean, inflation remains the key issue.
46:22.5
And that's even been remarked upon by Secretary Recto.
46:25.5
If we can get inflation lower,
46:27.5
this will certainly help the GDP.
46:29.5
And in that context,
46:30.5
I think anything that can be done now
46:32.5
to help on inflation,
46:34.5
particularly in terms of food supply,
46:36.5
which was early inflation,
46:38.5
That's why we strongly advocate the full implementation
46:42.5
of the Executive Order 50
46:44.5
on the lower tariffs,
46:45.5
particularly for pork,
46:47.5
because we've worked very hard on that
46:48.5
to get quality pork from the UK here.
46:51.5
But also, I believe now there's an opportunity.
46:53.5
Net is looking at maybe looking at tariffs
46:55.5
to be lowered on an overall basis.
46:59.5
in all supporting the government,
47:01.5
President Marcos issued an executive order
47:04.5
wanting to streamline with the farm agriculture
47:07.5
in terms of import requirements.
47:09.5
So are the numbers,
47:11.5
the numbers are still entering.
47:12.5
5.7 is still a good growth rate.
47:14.5
Obviously, along with everybody,
47:16.5
we want to see it higher.
47:17.5
But I think it's tracking the right way.
47:19.5
The key is getting that inflation number,
47:21.5
particularly on food, down.
47:25.5
last week, you know,
47:26.5
we spoke with the European Chamber
47:27.5
on why a trade deal with the EU
47:29.5
can help both countries prosper.
47:31.5
Now, I'm wondering what the state
47:33.5
of the UK-PH trade relations is now
47:36.5
as that improves since the last time we talked.
47:40.5
I mean, trade relations between the two countries
47:43.5
in terms of its size is all-time high.
47:45.5
We're at 2.8 billion.
47:47.5
It continues to grow.
47:50.5
the British government is looking to move
47:53.5
the next level of trade relations
47:55.5
to what they call
47:56.5
a joint economic trade committee.
48:00.5
we have obviously the launch
48:02.5
of the developing countries' tariff scheme.
48:04.5
This actually helped
48:05.5
in terms of boosting and reducing.
48:07.5
So, relations between the two countries
48:09.5
continues to grow.
48:11.5
Trade is continuing to increase.
48:13.5
And all credit to everybody involved,
48:15.5
Department of Trade and Industry here
48:20.5
and, of course, the British Embassy
48:21.5
and all the business groups involved.
48:26.5
is there anything else in the calendar
48:27.5
you'd like to talk about before we go?
48:31.5
We've got coming up,
48:32.5
we have some major events.
48:34.5
We have travel talks
48:35.5
which will be coming up this week.
48:38.5
We're very pleased
48:39.5
that we have Secretary Bautista,
48:42.5
obviously from transport.
48:44.5
We also have representatives
48:45.5
from the tourism sector.
48:47.5
We try to boost the travel
48:49.5
between the two countries.
48:51.5
And I think going forward,
48:52.5
you'll see many significant events.
48:54.5
What we're trying to do
48:55.5
is highlight and continue to highlight
48:57.5
trade and investment opportunities
48:59.5
between the two countries.
49:01.5
So, that's our next event coming up.
49:03.5
That's travel talks.
49:05.5
And again, it will highlight
49:07.5
the existing travel relations.
49:09.5
And also, let's not forget,
49:10.5
this is the 77th year of relations
49:12.5
between the two countries.
49:13.5
So, a good point to talk.
49:16.5
Congratulations for 77 years.
49:18.5
Chris Nelson again,
49:19.5
British Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines.
49:21.5
Thank you so much for joining us.
49:24.5
My pleasure, Stanley.
49:25.5
Thank you very much.
49:28.5
this is a spectacular way
49:29.5
to see the sights.
49:31.5
Now, two Austrian skydivers
49:33.5
make a leap of faith
49:34.5
as they become the first people
49:36.5
to successfully fly wingsuits
49:38.5
through London's iconic Tower Bridge.
49:41.5
The duo leapt from a helicopter
49:44.5
and soared across the River Thames
49:46.5
at speeds reaching 246 kilometers per hour.
49:50.5
Before navigating through the bridge towers,
49:53.5
they capped the stunt
49:54.5
by successfully landing
49:57.5
floating platforms.
50:03.5
And that's it for the show.
50:04.5
I'm Stanley Palisada.
50:05.5
Thank you so much for watching.
50:06.5
You can listen to our interviews again
50:08.5
on the ANC Market Edge podcast
50:10.5
available on Spotify.
50:11.5
You can also watch highlights,
50:14.5
and exclusive content
50:15.5
of our shows online.
50:16.5
Subscribe to the ANC YouTube channel,
50:18.5
like us on Facebook,
50:19.5
and follow us on X.
50:20.5
Stay safe and stay with ANC.
50:27.5
We'll see you next time.
