00:23.9
in giving us aid and assistance, unfortunately,
00:25.8
is that we also have a history kasi eh.
00:28.2
Of getting more than we can sustain.
00:34.4
You have all those F-8 Crusaders, for example,
00:38.7
and before that, the F-5s.
00:41.5
We used to get all that assistance for free,
00:44.0
and we never even put in our budget enough to maintain them.
00:48.6
Just allow them to deteriorate, and then we ask for more.
00:51.8
So, that's explainable.
00:54.4
Jay, I completely understand na we should be blamed,
00:58.2
Kasi tayong problem child.
00:60.0
Sila yung may pera.
01:00.9
So, parang scouting yan, diba, sa sports.
01:03.7
You invest in the player who's diamond.
01:07.1
So, sa dito naman, Philippines is a much more developed country
01:10.4
than 1960s, 70s, 80s, where upper income country almost.
01:14.7
At ito na, China is staring into us.
01:16.8
I mean, we cannot afford to be complacent like...
01:19.9
Pero I think that's also why now we're...
01:22.4
It applies to Philippines in the 21st century.
01:24.8
Yun lang point ko kasi, Jay.
01:25.8
Kasi feeling ko, again, this is not you per se,
01:28.2
pero feeling ko maraming self-blaming nang nangyayari dyan.
01:31.0
And I'm not comfortable with us because by the same token,
01:34.2
why is Ukraine getting 60 billion?
01:35.9
Ano ulit ang history record ng Ukraine?
01:38.5
I mean, yes, they did very strongly in 2022.
01:41.3
But before that, Ukraine was 10 times more corrupt than the Philippines or something like that.
01:45.4
So, for me, you have to invest in the rough diamond.
01:47.9
Kasi ito nata like...
01:48.9
Pero we also have to send the right signal.
01:53.1
I completely agree.
01:54.0
Under Duterte, it became clear.
01:55.7
The signaling was that we're not willing to defend.
01:58.2
So, we were putting our money where our mouth was when it came to these disputes.
02:03.2
And Duterte was saying, seven minutes lang yung missile.
02:06.5
So, why should the US spend billions of dollars on us when that's it?
02:11.9
What we were telling them essentially was that we're not going to use them to defend ourselves anyway.
02:16.6
So, ngayon, it's only under this government.
02:18.7
Under this administration, medyo nagbago, naging mas robust.
02:22.9
Then we're seeing all these more tangible offers na.
02:28.1
I agree and disagree with you.
02:29.0
I agree with you in the sense that kung ikaw, Amerika, bibigyan mo ba si Digong ng advanced weapons?
02:33.5
Baka bibigyan niya sa China the next day, diba?
02:36.1
At the same time, my counter-argument to that would be...
02:38.3
Kasi, of course, alam niyo naman, parating kong kasama si Ronald Diamas at saka yung mga tao in Aquino administration.
02:43.5
Si Pinoy daw mismo, may mga times na nainis na siya na bakit yung mga weapons na binibigay sa Pilipinas.
02:48.8
Kasi, we had Greg Pauling on my show who openly said,
02:52.6
Aquino was taken for granted.
02:54.3
How many state visits did Aquino have again?
02:58.1
So, again, Jay, I buy the argument na Digong, kahit ako, hindi bibigyan na anything yan.
03:03.2
Pero, andun naman si Pinoy eh, six years.
03:05.8
Bakit di tayo binigyan nung panahon ni Pinoy?
03:08.0
Kaya bumili tayo ng F-A-50 tuloy sa Korea.
03:10.5
E di sana F-16 fighter ka agad.
03:12.2
Again, Jay, I do not disagree na may problema tayo.
03:15.9
Kaya nga, rough diamond to breathe nicely.
03:17.6
But even when we had good presidents like Pinoy on the West Philippine Sea issue,
03:23.2
Alam mo naman, Jay, you're not better than me.
03:25.4
But, again, it all depends on country.
03:28.1
Because, I mean, at the time, the Americans did not really see the stakes in the West Philippine Sea
03:34.5
insofar as they were concerned, no?
03:37.3
As long, you know, until the Chinese started to warn away their aerial patrols from the artificial islands,
03:44.6
that was the only time that they realized that their freedom of navigation was really threatened.
03:49.8
So, again, you have to thank China for that, no?
03:52.4
Another mistake for bringing it in the US.
03:56.0
Pero, yeah, ganun eh.
03:58.1
it's not just the leadership,
04:00.8
it's also the conditions eh.
04:02.8
Also, remember, during Pinoy's time,
04:04.3
the concern of the Obama administration was trying to bring China on board
04:07.7
on, like, what, climate change and then economic, ano, diba?
04:12.6
Yun yung reality eh.
04:14.2
Okay, my other counter-argument,
04:16.3
gets ko Israel is a special ally of US.
04:18.7
Gets ko Ukraine is in the middle of the war.
04:21.6
They get, I don't know, 200 times more aid than us, fine.
04:27.3
you want to talk about political instability, unreliability.
04:30.7
I put Philippines above Pakistan and arguably above Jordan too.
04:34.6
Those guys have F-16 fighters.
04:36.6
So, again, Jay, I know that you can criticize me and say,
04:39.4
oh, Richard, ito ka na naman, mendicant.
04:41.7
Di, for me, you have to choose your alliance.
04:43.9
Otherwise, what's the point?
04:44.8
Kasi, hindi tayo i-respeto eh.
04:46.6
Kasi, again, Jay, how can we be a useful ally kung wala tayong projection capabilities?
04:52.4
Hindi naman pwede na rentier lang yung relationship natin.
04:55.4
Saan naman projection capabilities?
04:57.3
I think that's why there have been changes, basically,
05:02.9
in the way that the Americans have been treating the alliance with the Philippines.
05:07.4
The latest development being the bilateral defense guidelines.
05:10.6
They're adjusting.
05:11.9
They're adjusting.
05:13.5
Pero, yeah, I mean, I guess it's hard to, you know, to,
05:18.8
it's hard to ignore as well the history.
05:20.9
And, you know, we also have a problem with, what,
05:24.9
the stability of our foreign policy.
05:28.1
I mean, we've seen this.
05:28.9
Again, I would say, Pakistan, Jordan, I mean,
05:31.2
maguli, well, Jordan, in fairness, medyo matinungking niya.
05:34.1
Pero, Pakistan is a mess.
05:35.7
I mean, can you even remember what was the last prime minister there from Imran Khan na was siya?
05:41.3
I mean, so, again, Jay, I don't expect you to be an expert on all the regions.
05:44.8
But, you know, that's something I do, right?
05:46.9
I've written on Middle East.
05:47.7
I'm familiar with those parts of the world.
05:49.6
And, nakikita ko sila, binibigyan sila ng mga armas, billion-billion na eight.
05:53.9
Sino kalaban nila?
05:57.3
Ano bang ISIS kumpara sa hinaharap natin sa West Philippines?
06:00.7
So, then again, I know na maybe my views are a little bit outside the mainstream in the Philippines.
06:06.3
But, ironically, I had people like Elbridge Colby, yung mga Republicans agreeing with where I come from na,
06:11.4
oo nga, nagkulang kami sa Pilipinas.
06:13.7
Medyo hindi natin tinitulungan ng Pilipinas or prioritizing Philippines.
06:18.0
So, I hope we meet somewhere in the middle.
06:21.6
Both sides, US and Philippines, have been taking the alliance for granted for so long.
06:26.0
Part of it because we don't...
06:27.3
Basically, decided or agreed upon a division of labor that the Philippines will concentrate on internal security and Americans will take care of external defense.
06:36.8
We simply do not have a long enough experience in alliance management, yung serious alliance management.
06:45.3
And it's only now that we're basically learning, no?
06:48.4
On the Philippine side.
06:49.2
The US, they know that.
06:51.6
They know alliance management because of their experience with many other nations.
06:55.1
Many other nations.
06:56.3
But, they're not...
07:00.6
Ito yung Pilipinas, eh.
07:06.2
Sa ngayon, well, andyan na yan, eh.
07:10.2
Both sides are trying.
07:11.4
Both sides are, kumbaga, still checking out where they could take things, diba?
07:16.8
So, hopefully, we don't fall back into the postures and positions that we had back in the 50s and 60s.
07:27.3
Kaya nandyan, Jay, kaya ginagawa natin.
07:29.2
Wala kasing podcast yung mga analyst noon.
07:31.1
Tayo, tayo, lumalaban tayo, eh.
07:34.3
Last point, Jay, let's talk about the other flashpoint.
07:37.4
We talked about Panatag-Sol, pinag-usapan natin ng Ayungin-Sol to a certain degree.
07:41.7
Yung Reed Bank naman, anong mangyari dyan?
07:44.9
Kasi mukhang mag-energy crisis na tayo, eh.
07:47.8
At sinisipin tayo dyan.
07:49.3
Well, actually, I'm still waiting for what happens next when it comes to Reed Bank
07:54.2
because I had heard that the...
07:57.1
Philippines will be resuming its petroleum exploration.
08:00.4
Which service contract, I wasn't sure, no?
08:02.3
Parang hindi niya masabi.
08:06.3
Inaanlo pa natin.
08:08.6
I mean, they're supposed to do it within the summer of this year in order to make progress.
08:14.2
I know we're towards the end of our episode.
08:15.7
But can you give an executive, executive briefer?
08:20.1
Ano itong Reed Bank issue na ito?
08:22.2
At anong difference ng service contract sa joint development or joint exploration?
08:26.3
Just for people or...
08:27.1
I'm not familiar with the technicalities of that.
08:29.8
Reed Bank is a large area west of Palawan.
08:34.7
It is known to have three times the amount of natural gas as Malampaya.
08:40.2
And we were supposed to have developed it already.
08:43.7
Kasi it should have started way back in 2010, yung development ng reserve doon.
08:48.7
And it would have replaced the Camagong Malampaya Reserve, which is now beginning to run out.
08:56.2
There are several...
08:57.1
There are several service contracts there.
08:58.5
The one that is directly over Reed Bank is SC-72, which is subcontracted basically to Felix Mining.
09:07.4
But there's also SC-75 and a couple of others in that area, which are due for exploration.
09:17.2
Yung sa Reed Bank...
09:18.6
So, Jay, sino mga companies involved?
09:20.8
Sinong companies involved?
09:23.0
Private companies, public companies?
09:25.1
Private companies.
09:27.6
I remember, aside from Felix Mining, you have Nido Oil, which is an Australian company.
09:34.7
P&OC has a stake as well.
09:37.2
I forget the one in the south.
09:38.9
But there's one na, ano, Sinok, the Chinese national oil company, is a part owner together with P&OC.
09:48.2
Kailan pumasok yung Sinok?
09:50.3
Kailan pumasok yung Sinok?
09:52.7
No, no, even before.
09:53.5
Ah, sumatagal pala yung Sinok doon.
09:57.8
I didn't know that.
09:58.5
But they haven't been able to move forward on any of these contracts.
10:02.4
So, in theory, service contract with participation of Sinok, CNBC, one of those guys, and then China could have, I don't know, spawn it as it's a joint exploration, pero sa totoo lang service contract.
10:14.5
We could have done that, right?
10:17.6
The one with Sinok is actually within archipelagic and territorial waters, northern Palawan.
10:23.1
So, hindi na yung cash line?
10:24.7
Hindi na kini-claim yun.
10:27.1
Ang problema yun from their perspective or from their side.
10:30.8
Ang problema nga lang is that during Digong's time, they tried to spin it as joint development in the same way as what they wanted to do with RID Bank.
10:43.0
But these are completely different situations.
10:46.6
So, it's not a proper comparison, bale.
10:49.4
It didn't correspond.
10:50.7
So, ngayon, we had all these contracts, service contracts doon sa West Philippine Sea around RID.
10:57.1
We had all these contracts, service contracts doon sa West Philippine Sea around RID Bank, et cetera.
10:58.9
But they've been...
11:01.3
They were placed under moratorium for a very long time.
11:04.5
They were not being implemented.
11:06.6
And, of course, if you're the oil company, this is supposed to be an investment.
11:10.5
If you're the country, like the Philippines, this is supposed to contribute to your energy security.
11:14.6
So, you need to develop it as soon as you can.
11:17.9
Yun yung hinihintay natin ngayon.
11:19.4
This summer, supposedly, they were to resume on one or another contract.
11:24.4
But yun nga, wala pambalita sa ngayon.
11:26.2
And we don't know if...
11:27.9
My understanding is baka better we don't talk about.
11:31.6
I mean, since the better don't talk about it, something good is probably happening.
11:36.4
Thank you very much for that, Professor J. Batambakal.
11:40.3
I want to do a little bit Ezra Klein style here.
11:42.8
What are the three, let's say, top three readings, writings of yours or Corritan you recommend for people to know more about the technicalities?
11:52.0
Kasi I actually like the way you write, J., and a lot of your works.
11:56.2
I drew on them for my own academic and non-academic writings, including recently I had a piece with the Diplomat Magazine.
