01:31.7
Well, there appears to be a lot of movement because it was officially reported that the ICC has been recruiting translators.
01:48.5
From English to, from Cebuano to English.
01:52.7
So, that means that they're preparing for a trial at the moment you, because for the witnesses, they need translators.
02:02.8
Because the witnesses might be more familiar with Tagalog or Cebuano.
02:08.2
So, they're precisely looking for translators. So, that's the big giveaway that there could be a trial soon.
02:15.9
And soon, your understanding from the timetable, kasi may mga deadline timetable din yan, is siguro within the next three to six months, no?
02:24.6
I mean, to have an educated guess on this. In short, before midterm elections. I want to be very particular. Before midterm elections, right?
02:32.0
Yeah, I think within the year.
02:33.8
Yeah, within the year.
02:35.7
I mean, imagine kung magkasabay ba yan sa elections sa October na filing of candidates. I mean, this is crazy.
02:42.3
Okay. Again, I want to also ask you.
02:45.9
Justice Carpio, I asked J.J. Batumbacal, our good friend the other day also about this.
02:50.5
Gano ka mahalaga na mag-cooperate si BBM sa ICC sa konteksto ng West Philippine Sea Disputes?
02:56.8
Because if you want the world to be on our side when it comes to rule of law, rules-based international order,
03:02.5
don't you want to also show that you have rule of law at home and you're going to cooperate in international bodies?
03:07.5
Kasi parang weird, ne? Ayaw mo sa ICC pero gusto mo sa arbitral tribunal at on-clause?
03:12.6
Hindi pwede yan, di ba? You cannot pick and choose. You have to show consistency.
03:15.9
You have to show consistency of conviction.
03:18.2
Yes, to a certain extent. Because the EU, they actually are the originators of the ICC.
03:27.8
They're fully in support. They're actually financing the ICC.
03:32.6
But the US, of course, is not a member. It is not ratified.
03:36.7
So, hati, no? But the EU would like to see us rejoin or at least cooperate.
03:45.9
And, in fact, the Supreme Court ruled. There is a ruling of the Supreme Court in the case filed by, I think it was Pimentel or Cayetano, I can't remember.
04:01.0
The Supreme Court said, okay, the issue was whether the withdrawal by President Duterte was effective or not.
04:07.2
The Supreme Court said, yes, effective, but there is a one-year period where...
04:15.9
They could continue with the prosecution for crimes committed while we were a party.
04:26.2
So, in fact, we are... And then the Supreme Court said there that we are obligated to cooperate.
04:30.9
And it was a unanimous decision. We are obligated to cooperate.
04:36.8
Some are saying that this is just an obiter dictum. In other words, it's just an aside.
04:42.3
But I don't think so because that goes into the very...
04:45.9
It's just a question of whether the withdrawal was effective.
04:48.9
So, if you're talking of effectivity of withdrawal, so you have to look at the residual issue whether there is a phase-out period because that's part of the withdrawal.
05:01.7
Residual jurisdiction in that case. Although, if I'm not mistaken, the former chief prosecutor, I'm not sure about Karim Khan, but the previous one,
05:11.1
parang may sinabi din sila, Justice, na even if hindi ka kasama sa ICC,
05:15.9
if you have committed crimes against humanity or mass atrocities, pwede pa rin pumasok.
05:22.1
I mean, for instance, Putin of Russia, Russia never joined ICC last time I checked, just like the US.
05:27.4
But they issued a warrant of arrest against Putin last year.
05:31.1
Yeah, only because the crime was alleged to have been committed within Ukraine.
05:36.4
And Ukraine made a manifestation or a communication to the ICC.
05:45.9
I see that while they are not ratifying, they are saying that they will allow the ICC to have jurisdiction over offenses committed within their territory.
06:00.3
So, that's why the ICC issued a warrant of arrest against Putin because of that.
06:07.8
Right. I mean, I'm glad that you mentioned the US case because the US obviously didn't raise any criticisms.
06:15.9
And Putin got the warrant of arrest.
06:17.8
But now there are news that Netanyahu or some top Israeli officials may face something similar in the ICC.
06:23.3
And now you have US senators openly threatening ICC.
06:27.0
And for sure, behind the scenes, there's pressure being put on the ICC.
06:30.4
So, you're right. I mean, it's not only that the US is not part of the Rome Statute.
06:35.3
We have evidence of US senators, if not the US government, openly opposing or trying to frustrate when it doesn't go in its own favor.
06:42.3
Except, Duterte is not a favorite of America.
06:45.4
So, I'm not sure they'll have an issue.
06:47.3
That's interesting.
06:48.6
Except, I don't think the US will mind at all if the ICC goes after Duterte the way they didn't mind at all when it went after Putin.
06:57.0
Well, the US has not issued any statement against the probable issuance of a warrant of arrest on Duterte by the ICC.
07:08.6
They haven't made any comment on that.
07:10.5
But if you recall, the ICC prosecutor,
07:14.7
before the present one, before Khan,
07:22.3
She was actually barred from entering the US, I think, because she started an investigation on...
07:32.6
Afghanistan, yes.
07:33.7
Violations by US servicemen.
07:38.1
So, in short, the US, they don't have credibility or moral ascendancy on this issue.
07:44.7
To put it nicely.
07:45.6
And we know, of course, from the literature, the Bush administration was very aggressively against ICC and the Rome Statute.
07:52.0
Kaya big deal na sumali tayo in 2011 despite being a US ally.
07:55.2
But by that time, it's Obama.
07:56.5
Now, I don't want to go too much into the ICC.
07:58.1
I only wanted to emphasize justice na, you know, don't you think na importante na we show now we're a country of a rule of law.
08:07.4
Kasi, if you want to be, you know, at the receiving end of international legal instruments support,
08:14.7
on the West Philippines issue, perhaps to a certain degree, also, you want to show that you are a country of rule of law and democracy.
08:21.1
From my understanding, though, is when Marcos was in Germany, and I interviewed the German ambassador on this,
08:26.6
very strong Yung Pushni Chancellor Scholz, among other European leaders, for Marcos to, you know, to cooperate,
08:35.0
or at least, you know, not to frustrate it on ICC procedures, since we are supposed to be fellow democracies, right?
08:41.1
I mean, that's my also understanding.
08:42.7
So, our European friends, for sure, are putting some good...
08:44.7
encouragement, not pressure, if I can put it that way.
08:47.9
Yes, well, I go by the decision of the Supreme Court that we have to cooperate,
08:53.5
even as we are no longer a member, because of that provision for crimes committed while you were a party,
09:02.7
the ICC will still have jurisdiction, and we have still a duty to cooperate with respect to those cases which happened while we were still a member.
09:14.7
And that's my position, because that's the pronouncement of the Supreme Court.
09:20.6
Right, and by that time, you were no longer in the Supreme Court, right, Justice?
09:24.0
Yeah, I was no longer in the Supreme Court.
09:26.4
Si Leonen was the ponente.
09:29.8
It was a unanimous decision.
09:31.9
Right, absolutely.
09:33.0
Which is sometimes rare, you know, on things as...
09:36.6
But, Justice, another question, sorry.
09:39.0
Curious lang ako, bakit silent yung ating Constitution dun sa exit from treaties?
09:44.7
I mean, I find this strange.
09:47.0
Shouldn't that have been anticipated by anyone?
09:50.0
Don't other countries have that, similar democracies na concurrent kapat ng Senate, et cetera?
09:56.1
Well, it follows that it should be terminated in the same way that it was entered into.
10:05.4
In other words, the President ratified by the Senate.
10:09.0
But in this case, there was no ratification by the Senate because the Supreme Court said,
10:14.0
the Senate did not object.
10:16.1
I mean, I don't agree with that.
10:18.1
You know, honestly, Justice, thank you for pointing that out.
10:21.9
I just find that a little bit...
10:23.6
Yeah, because in the case of ratification, it has to be a positive act by the Senate.
10:31.1
If they don't act on it, it's not ratified.
10:34.8
So it should be the same case in withdrawal.
10:38.1
The President wants to withdraw.
10:41.4
But if the Senate doesn't do anything,
10:44.0
then there's no positive approval of the withdrawal.
10:47.8
Because both must act.
10:50.0
That's the requirement of the Constitution.
10:52.8
Thank you, Justice, for saying that.
10:54.5
I wanted to hear that from someone.
10:56.0
Because for me, again, who am I to disagree with the Supreme Court?
10:59.6
But I found that thing a bit queasy, right?
11:01.5
The whole thing a bit strange.
11:04.6
I want to ask about...
11:05.8
There's something...
11:07.7
This is what the Supreme Court said.
11:09.4
Because in this case, the majority did not object.
11:14.0
They're deemed to have approved it, in effect.
11:17.7
But that's not the way the Constitution is worded.
11:20.7
There has to be a positive act.
11:22.3
I mean, the bill does not become a law unless there's a positive act.
11:29.9
Unless the Constitution itself says that if the President does not veto it within 30 days,
11:36.4
then it lapses into law.
11:38.7
But there is no such thing.
11:40.8
So, in other words, if the Constitution requires consent,
11:44.0
it must work both ways.
11:47.3
Consent to approve and consent to terminate.
11:51.6
I find it a leap of logic, if not leap of presumption, right?
11:56.3
Just because Senado did not claim it, then okay.
11:59.0
I mean, I just find it weird.
12:00.0
I mean, what is your indicator to say,
12:02.0
Senado did not claim it, right?
12:04.6
Just because Duterte was popular back then.
12:06.7
So, I'm glad, Justice, you mentioned this.
12:08.2
Because, you know, I'm not a constitutional expert.
12:11.1
But honestly, even as a non-constitutional expert,
12:13.0
I found the thing a bit...
12:15.8
But this is important because
12:17.2
yung update natin is DOJ
12:19.7
gave a briefer to Marcos
12:22.0
on scenarios on the potential warrants of arrest.
12:24.6
But the other thing is,
12:26.3
there are also discussions,
12:27.8
from what I understand,
12:28.7
about us rejoining the ICC.
12:30.6
Now, if the Constitution is silent on the exit part,
12:36.0
per itong Supreme Court ruling na yan,
12:37.9
or implication of Supreme Court,
12:39.6
then rejoining that
12:41.2
should be also unilateral executive decision,
12:43.8
or dapat dadaan ulit sa Senado?
12:45.8
The reason I'm saying dadaan ulit sa Senado dapat is,
12:48.4
I know that's your stance, probably,
12:53.1
May Robin Hood Padilla.
12:55.5
I mean, now, suddenly, it's asymmetrical.
12:58.5
That exit, you gave a free pass to Duterte.
13:01.3
Re-entering, you're giving the Duterte people,
13:03.3
well, pro-Duterte people, again, a veto power.
13:05.9
I find that problematic.
13:07.9
Well, I think we have to do it right.
13:12.5
Regardless of the composition.
13:13.8
And I think to rejoin,
13:17.3
the President must approve,
13:21.2
and the Senate must consent.
13:24.6
And you think there could be enough number?
13:27.1
The concurrence is what?
13:32.4
I think just about.
13:33.7
Yeah, just about.
13:35.9
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
13:37.1
The numbers will be there.
13:38.7
And if this is after 2025 election,
13:41.6
Mukhang bati si Amy Marcos,
13:43.3
baka hindi makapasok sa top 12, eh.
13:45.3
I'm looking at the surveys,
13:46.5
it's very competitive.
13:49.6
Baka bato lang at Bongo.
13:51.1
Yeah, baka bato Bongo lang makapasok
13:52.9
from the DDS camp.
13:53.9
And let's see about the other Dutertes
13:56.2
Now, let's transition now, of course,
14:01.3
one of the persons who has been
14:04.9
at least until he became
14:06.2
complete opposition,
14:08.9
I just wanna ask you,
14:10.7
because, you know,
14:11.3
you're not just a former...
14:13.8
top-level jurist.
14:16.5
you were part of the Supreme Court.
14:18.3
You are also a democracy advocate, right?
14:20.9
You are a believer in the ETSA project,
14:23.2
from my understanding,
14:24.5
or at least the promise of the ETSA project.
14:26.9
How do you feel about certain people
14:29.0
who are presidential spokesmen of Duterte
14:31.0
after being an ex-human rights lawyer,
14:33.6
supporting the UNI team
14:34.9
during the SMNI debate,
14:36.9
if I can call that a debate,
14:38.2
saying wala siyang nahanap na evidentia
14:40.1
na may maling ginawa na Marcos
14:41.4
in a sense by saying,
14:47.6
invoking people power.
14:50.5
Yung mga talking about
14:51.7
Marcos' court cases in the US,
14:55.2
and interestingly,
14:55.8
I heard this also from my friends in China,
14:59.1
the reason naging matapang
15:02.7
is because baka yung mga Amerikano
15:05.0
on issues that...
15:08.5
At sa inapin niya,
15:09.8
balentong-balentong ba yung term
15:17.2
What's going on here,
15:21.1
vintage Hariroke.
15:26.4
the Duterte cabinet,
15:29.8
Duterte was a serial murderer.
15:38.6
became the spokesperson.
15:41.3
He joined the cabinet.
15:47.6
So, we should just
15:49.1
take note of that.
15:51.4
Okay, okay, okay.
15:52.7
Well, speaking of vintage,
15:56.4
what is your read on Duterte?
15:58.4
Si Duterte, magulo talagang
16:02.8
from your understanding
16:03.6
of vintage Duterte,
16:04.8
do you think he will be,
16:11.1
Sir Trillian has opened
16:12.1
his song about coup attempts.
16:14.0
Ikaw, what is your understanding
16:15.1
of vintage Duterte on this?
16:17.1
You dealt with him a lot
16:19.5
and friendliest terms.
16:24.6
who are in government
16:29.1
President Marcos Jr.
16:34.1
to become president.
16:37.2
former President Duterte
16:40.1
himself has been saying,
16:41.4
has been repeating
16:43.1
the incumbent president
16:47.6
he keeps on repeating that,
16:49.1
that the incumbent president
16:51.5
is a drug addict.
16:54.5
that's the worst thing
16:56.0
against a sitting president.
17:05.7
irreconcilable already.
17:09.9
the point of no return
17:11.3
has long been reached.
17:12.4
As we say in Locana,
17:24.6
papunta na tayo sa China,
17:26.2
your favorite country
17:27.2
and embassy in Manila.
17:33.5
I was a bit impressed.
17:36.8
pero feeling ko na
17:40.5
dapat matapang si BBM,
17:43.1
yung mga marites na yan.
17:45.6
tinanong siya sa Gensan,
17:51.2
Jukeboxan yan eh.
17:52.7
Parang jukebox king yan.
17:53.9
Nalagay mo ng points.
17:59.1
I never saw BBM like that,
18:00.7
yung talagang bardagulan.
18:03.8
Parang sinindiabil yan.
18:07.7
BBM is stepping up also?
18:10.5
ang tawag sa kanya ni Marlica,
18:12.2
magaling na vlogger ay
18:18.5
nagle-level up na.
18:24.2
he has to respond
18:25.4
because the attacks are becoming
18:34.1
fend off the attack.
18:38.2
he's not a Teflon guy,
18:45.1
he has to fight back.
18:47.5
His numbers went down by 14 points
18:49.4
just the other quarter.
18:51.2
huwag siya mag-feeling Duterte
18:52.4
na he can get away with it.
18:54.6
I appreciate the president fighting back.
18:56.4
And you have to draw the line,
18:59.6
Kawawa pa si Maricel Suriano,
19:01.5
dinamay pa nila doon.
19:03.6
sumikat lalo si Maricel ngayon.
19:06.3
na hindi pa lalo.
19:10.5
si Bato De La Rosa,
19:12.2
hindi kagano yung career niya.
19:13.4
Gusto niya maging
19:16.0
na ganitong araw,
19:17.5
ito ang ginawa mo?
19:19.8
na binugbog mo yung dalawang,
19:21.7
Ano sila bugbogin?
19:26.6
Wala nang career ni Bato.
19:28.1
Tapos na yung showbiz career niya.
19:31.1
let's go to this.
19:34.6
Expulsion of the Chinese ambassador.
19:36.6
Ito na yung level of discussion ngayon.
19:40.7
the reason I'm saying
19:45.0
with this mayor-go situation
19:47.9
Biglang napakita nung 2022,
19:49.9
naging mayor bigla.
19:51.6
Hindi namin mahanap yung kanyang
19:53.0
birth certificate.
19:55.7
Hindi namin alam kung
19:56.3
sino yung tatay niya.
19:57.5
Nag-homeschooling daw siya
19:59.5
buong buhay niya.
20:00.4
Wala rin ebidensya.
20:01.8
Nothing suspicious here.
20:03.6
Oh, and by the way,
20:04.9
malapit itong Tarlac town na yan
20:06.6
sa Clark Air Base, right?
20:10.0
nothing suspicious here, right?
20:14.0
it's very easy to
20:15.6
dig into her past
20:23.1
who were her friends
20:25.1
when she was growing up
20:26.3
because she was growing up
20:32.7
she has to present people
20:43.1
So, very strange,
20:44.7
But, we have to get
20:47.1
We have to gather more facts.
20:50.1
it's just insane,
20:53.1
Bigla na lang lumitaw,
20:56.2
this is like worse than
20:58.4
I mean, you can just become
20:59.2
the mayor in another country.
21:00.6
Again, of course,
21:01.2
we are very careful
21:01.8
not to get into prejudice
21:05.9
people try to make
21:06.6
xenophobic comments.
21:07.5
But, at the same time,
21:08.4
hindi naman tayo,
21:08.9
pwede mang-mang lang
21:09.9
na in-infiltrate tayo
21:11.8
And, assuming this is
21:12.8
a case of infiltration.
21:15.0
Speaking of which,
21:16.2
now, there's an open
21:17.2
accusation by our
21:25.0
dito ay involved na
21:28.5
what the Soviet Union
21:29.5
used to do in Europe
21:30.5
during the Cold War period.
21:32.9
influence operations,
21:34.2
disinformation campaign,
21:35.9
ma-accusations of
21:36.7
deep fake audios,
21:39.1
wow, this is like
21:41.0
This is like Berlin.
21:41.8
What's going on here?
21:43.6
Well, I think you have to
21:44.9
go back to the time of
21:46.3
former President Duterte,
21:49.4
where they were very loose
21:53.0
the Chinese ambassador
21:54.4
could visit the president
21:55.9
any time in Davao.
21:58.5
And, the president would go
22:04.1
where he's staying.
22:07.7
they were good friends.
22:11.8
just talk the whole night.
22:14.2
there was this breakdown
22:18.0
Duterte administration
22:22.7
the other embassies
22:23.8
maintained that protocol.
22:26.2
whenever they want to
22:27.1
talk to the president,
22:28.6
course it through
22:30.7
But, the Chinese ambassador
22:32.0
could just go there
22:38.1
some embassy officials
22:39.9
when they talked to
22:41.8
our military people.
22:43.7
they could just text
22:46.0
our AFP chief of staff
22:48.0
or the army chief,
22:51.8
it's very strange.
22:53.5
in other countries.
22:57.0
the Chinese embassy people
22:59.4
would just go to Westcom
23:02.5
without coursing it
23:04.4
through the proper channels.
23:06.6
it started because of that
23:08.0
culture during the time of
23:09.3
President Duterte.
23:10.1
So, you're saying
23:12.2
from national security.
23:14.2
that's the best term I can,
23:15.3
this is trickle down,
23:17.3
cluster mess, right?
23:19.5
let's not forget also,
23:20.6
Chinese airplanes,
23:27.6
that was crazy, right?
23:30.8
but Justice Garby,
23:36.2
and this is a lesson
23:37.1
to all government officials.
23:38.8
They should never
23:41.5
Chinese embassy officials
23:42.7
because they can easily
23:44.9
They could be taped.
23:46.4
they should never talk.
23:47.7
they should refer
23:48.8
the Chinese embassy people
23:58.2
they should never
24:02.6
these Chinese embassy officials
24:04.5
Chinese embassy officials
24:05.7
appear in their offices.
24:08.2
we are very friendly people.
24:13.3
you would entertain.
24:14.8
they have to think twice
24:16.2
because of this incident.
24:19.0
Because of this incident,
24:20.5
they should be on guard now.
24:24.7
I vehemently disagree with you
24:26.6
an ambassador is allowed
24:28.2
to talk to a provincial governor.
24:30.4
Last time I checked.
24:34.3
not when he will say
24:41.7
with the governor.
24:43.8
you don't do that.
24:45.6
if I'm a governor,
24:47.7
the ambassador of my country
24:49.8
welcome to the province of China, sir.
25:00.3
the resupply mission
25:01.3
will be one-to-one,
25:02.3
only one Coast Guard vessel
25:03.8
and one from the Philippines,
25:07.2
and you will only bring
25:09.8
no construction material,
25:10.6
that's a different thing.
25:12.5
being courteous anymore.
25:14.8
those are substantive matters
25:17.1
sovereign rights.
25:22.4
just cannot discuss that
25:23.8
without the DFA people around.
25:29.8
when you meet the,
25:31.4
foreign diplomats,
25:33.7
you will be courteous to them,
25:36.5
if you're a government official,
25:39.0
but you never discuss
25:42.4
sovereign rights,
25:44.5
and make an agreement.
25:47.1
I want to ask on this
25:48.5
because, you know,
25:49.1
I was also to Admiral Ong
25:52.8
may protocols yan?
25:54.0
if you deal with a country
25:56.4
for the lack of better terms,
25:57.8
sinasakop yung bansa mo,
26:00.0
you use intelligence officials
26:03.3
Dapat both sides record it.
26:05.9
para wala nang kompromat,
26:07.3
Wala nang blackmailing.
26:09.1
This one looks like,
26:11.9
these guys have a lot of
26:13.0
kompromat we don't know about.
26:16.4
this is really a warning
26:18.3
all government officials,
26:19.8
including military officials.
26:23.4
they should just refrain
26:25.7
Chinese embassy officials
26:27.1
without the presence
26:30.3
And intelligence officials,
26:31.7
who should know protocol.
26:37.1
probably this should also
26:37.8
apply to people like us,
26:39.8
even if you're not
26:40.8
if you're quite a thought leader
26:42.5
or media professional,
26:44.2
mamaya may sasabihin ka,
26:46.1
tas they'll take it out
26:46.8
It's okay with me
26:51.0
that I can make an agreement
26:52.2
on behalf of the Philippines.
26:54.6
Mamaya may audio sila
26:55.6
na may sinabi ka,
26:59.6
because they would be
27:08.4
We're not government
27:10.5
Justice Scorpio, so
27:12.5
just to end on this part of the episode
27:15.0
before we go more into the West Philippines issue
27:16.9
in particular itong squad and Balikatan
27:18.7
I want to get also your view on that before we end
27:21.5
nakakabahala ba ito? Kasi for sure
27:24.7
if we expel some of their top level officials
27:26.8
magre-retaliate din sila
27:28.5
and then less there will be communication channels
27:30.9
again, as I said, diplomacy
27:32.6
if diplomacy were just for friends
27:34.6
it's not diplomacy, right? It's happy times
27:36.8
you need diplomacy precisely
27:40.8
counterparts, right? So aren't you worried
27:43.0
about the diplomatic channels collapsing here
27:45.0
at the rate things are going? Although of course
27:46.8
I squarely blame China for doing
27:49.1
this and everyone is now scared to talk
27:51.0
to them. Baka mamay i-re-record ka nila
27:52.7
tapos anong gagawin nila dyan?
27:54.5
Well, that's to be expected
27:58.9
a valid ground to expel
28:00.7
whoever this Chinese guy is
28:02.4
and the Chinese will
28:04.7
retaliate and that's accepted
28:06.5
but it will end there
28:08.4
this has happened several times between the US
28:12.8
Yes, Russia, I wanted to say
28:15.4
they expel each other
28:18.3
and they expect that their counterpart
28:20.8
will be expelled also
28:22.1
and that's the end of it
28:23.5
and you think even the
28:26.4
problem is, I mean, this might go all the way
28:28.7
to the ambassador, right?
28:29.5
I mean, how do you compare
28:31.7
Zhao with Xi'an? I mean, like
28:33.4
Zhao, the former ambassador, seemed to be far more
28:35.7
sophisticated, I would say
28:38.0
even though, of course, meron siyang advantage
28:39.5
dealing with Duterte, but he was there even during
28:41.7
Aquino's time, 2014 pa lang
28:43.6
alam ko si Zhao was there
28:44.8
so baka may problema din ang ambassador
28:48.4
aside from the whole modus operandi
28:50.8
Well, I don't know him personally but
28:53.2
I don't think we should
28:56.6
expelling the ambassador. There are many
28:59.1
people below him that we can
29:01.4
expel and if you do that
29:04.5
escalate anymore, but if you
29:07.5
expel the ambassador himself
29:09.1
that's a serious action
29:11.2
In short, yung mga ano na lang niya
29:14.5
yung mga parang Harry Rock
29:15.7
yung mga ano na lang niya
29:17.9
mga spokesman niya
29:21.1
or the political council
29:23.6
I don't know, Charles de Afec
29:27.3
or something like that at highest probably
29:28.8
Now, going back to this, Justice Carpio
29:30.8
what is your read naman of the Philippines
29:32.9
and the whole squad thing? Is this
29:35.3
squad with Australia, US
29:37.5
Japan? Is it for the gram?
29:39.3
For the photo op? Or do you think
29:41.3
there's something more substantial here in addition
29:43.5
to joint patrols becoming a
29:45.3
new normal in the West Philippine Sea?
29:49.1
if you compare it to the quad, in the
29:51.3
quad you have one party
29:53.5
there, India, that there's no
29:55.0
defense treaty with
29:59.3
the squad, all the parties have
30:01.2
a defense treaty with the US
30:02.6
and so this is more
30:05.1
this is actually the
30:15.3
South China Sea is concerned
30:17.3
but if you look at the larger
30:19.4
Indo-Pacific, well
30:21.1
you really need India with you if you
30:23.2
if you want to cover the entire
30:25.1
Indo-Pacific. Yeah, my understanding with
30:27.2
India is that of course there's a lot of tension and disappointment
30:29.5
with them. I mean, the Indians
30:31.1
are very clear, this is all about their own
30:33.3
great power moment, right? And I remember
30:35.1
when I asked some
30:37.1
Munich Security Conference, the quad
30:39.0
panel there, is this the Asian
30:41.0
NATO? Obviously it's not. But you know, just to provoke
30:43.0
discussion, si Jai Shankar, they're
30:44.9
very outspoken foreign minister.
30:47.0
In fairness, dapat ganun sana si Harry Roque, yung
30:49.0
parang Jai Shankar type ni Modi.
30:51.1
He went out and said, no, we are here just
30:52.9
you know, essentially saying alliance of convenience
30:55.1
ito. This is not a treaty alliance.
30:57.8
We work where it serves
30:59.0
us. And alam natin, India,
31:01.0
Russia, Romans, Beshi.
31:03.4
China, ingat sila kasi may
31:04.9
border disputes din sila and they don't want to get into fight.
31:07.1
with China anytime soon. Kasi may mga
31:09.0
concerns din sila. So, the Philippines,
31:11.7
although mas maliit sa India and
31:13.1
all of that, it looks like a much more
31:14.9
aligned country. Hindi lang treaty ally, pero in terms
31:17.1
of values, orientation, China position,
31:19.4
right? So this looks like a more
31:20.9
SWAC quad for dealing
31:23.1
with China. Because I know naturally people
31:25.1
will say, what about South Korea?
31:27.0
I'll say, what about North Korea, right?
31:28.9
Ang laki ng problema ng South Korea sa North Korea,
31:30.7
imbit sila dun eh. At least the Philippines,
31:32.9
kahit mas mahina tayo sa India and Korea,
31:35.1
military wise, we can be
31:36.8
very helpful. And speaking of which,
31:39.1
how do you read this balikatan
31:40.6
exercises? We had an exercise in Kagayan
31:42.6
where we essentially simulated
31:45.1
China taking over
31:46.7
Batanes or Mavulis or something like that and
31:48.6
taking it back. I mean, clearly the Philippines
31:50.8
is leveraging its geography, right?
31:52.7
And we're really preparing for a Taiwan contingency.
31:56.9
think we also have to show
31:58.8
to China that we are not
32:00.2
helpless, we are not defenseless.
32:03.0
And this is it. I mean,
32:05.1
where the Americans brought in
32:06.8
their Typhoon missiles
32:10.3
message to China that
32:12.0
the missiles from the Philippines could reach them.
32:16.5
I think it's a matter of
32:20.9
Of course, we have our
32:22.7
BrahMos already that would
32:24.5
cover the Spratlys,
32:30.7
won't reach the Chinese mainland.
32:32.7
But this Typhoon class
32:34.7
of missiles will reach the
32:36.8
mainland. So, it's a
32:40.6
And what do you think about the whole
32:42.3
high Mars exercises, sea stars,
32:45.2
sinking a ship? I mean,
32:46.6
there were also exercises in South China Sea. And for the first
32:48.8
time, there were drills outside
32:50.8
the 12 nautical miles territorial sea
32:54.3
joining in. The French
32:56.2
are about to start their negotiations
32:58.4
over a reciprocal access agreement.
33:00.4
How do you see those exercises going?
33:04.3
I'm very in favor.
33:09.3
they conduct naval drills
33:12.0
in our exclusive economic zone
33:14.4
in the West Philippine Sea, they're actually
33:16.3
telling China that
33:17.8
under the arbitral award, this is
33:20.3
the exclusive economic zone of the Philippines
33:22.1
and there is freedom of
33:24.4
navigation including naval drills.
33:26.6
And that's exactly what we're doing. So,
33:28.4
in fact, they are enforcing the arbitral
33:30.4
award. For me, it's the
33:32.2
most tangible enforcement of
33:34.3
the arbitral award because you're using
33:36.4
warships to say that this is
33:38.2
the exclusive economic zone of the
33:40.1
Philippines per the
33:44.5
And that there's no 9-dash line.
33:46.7
Yeah, and that 9-dash line is
33:48.0
nonsense that we don't follow.
33:49.7
Because the exercises are inside the 9-dash line.
33:52.4
And there's no difference. It's still a go.
33:54.6
Yeah, that's exactly
33:56.0
the message being sent that your 9-dash
33:58.1
line doesn't exist.
34:02.0
Justice, we should do this every year now?
34:04.0
More regular? Yes, we should.
34:05.5
Ito na dapat talaga.
34:07.8
It should be done so that it becomes
34:09.8
routine and it will sink into
34:11.8
the minds of everybody that that is really
34:13.7
the exclusive economic zone of the
34:15.9
Philippines. Because they keep on
34:18.0
invoking the arbitral award
34:19.7
and that's to our benefit.
34:24.0
Justice, on this.
34:26.3
First of all, what is
34:27.7
your read of the Marcos administration
34:29.5
foreign policy so far along these lines?
34:32.2
Are we doing what would have
34:33.8
had happened had anyone,
34:35.5
aside from Duterte, won
34:37.0
2016? In a sense that kung si Grace po
34:39.5
yung president or Mauro has,
34:41.2
binay, debate natin yan.
34:44.0
Parang ito yung gagawin nila, diba?
34:45.6
I mean, what we're seeing is how in 2024
34:47.5
should have been what happened in 2017, right?
34:50.3
That's correct. This is
34:51.5
really the logical move.
34:53.5
Because once you have the arbitral award,
34:55.7
then you should press
34:59.4
already. Ask the allied
35:01.5
countries to join you in
35:03.4
joint patrols. Because that's the most
35:05.3
robust enforcement of the arbitral
35:08.7
China couldn't do anything. China's
35:11.1
totally helpless when the naval
35:13.1
powers of the world conduct naval drills
35:15.1
in area where they
35:17.2
claim it is their national territory. Remember,
35:19.7
everything within the
35:20.9
10-dust line, China says it's their national
35:25.2
can you just imagine,
35:26.6
US and European warships and we
35:29.2
ourselves conducting naval
35:31.3
drills in what China considers to be
35:33.2
their national territory. It's a really,
35:37.4
on their face. And they
35:39.3
couldn't do anything.
35:41.1
And you think if we have this RAA
35:43.2
reciprocal assets agreement with the French,
35:45.4
with the Japanese, baka we're looking at
35:47.1
regular joint drills
35:49.3
hindi lang patrols in the 200-not-com.
35:51.3
Yes, we need those. We have to
35:53.2
really to strengthen our alliances
35:54.8
because that's all we've got right
35:57.1
now. As we build up our
35:59.0
credible self-defense force,
36:01.6
we must rely on alliances.
36:03.4
Even when we have the,
36:05.3
credible self-defense force, we must
36:07.3
still strengthen our alliances because
36:09.2
you're facing a huge
36:11.1
country, a nuclear
36:13.4
armed country with the largest
36:15.1
navy in the world, largest
36:16.9
coast guard in the world, largest
36:19.1
submarine force in the world. So, how do
36:21.2
you fight a country like that? You just
36:23.2
have to get allies.
36:26.1
Justice, so we're about to
36:27.2
end this episode, but I'll have one question
36:29.3
also about something
36:30.8
more inspirational. But what do you think
36:33.3
Marcos should do in the coming years? What should
36:35.1
be the next logical step? So, you said
36:37.1
what he's doing right now is what
36:39.2
any logical president not named
36:41.1
Duterte would have done anyway. So, there's
36:43.1
nothing genius about what Marcos is doing.
36:45.2
Let's be absolutely clear because I think some people are
36:47.1
going gaga. Oh, Marcos Jr. is such
36:49.2
a genius. No, he's not. He's just doing what
36:51.1
any self-respecting
36:53.2
Filipino leader should have done.
36:54.9
Tama naman si BBM dun sa speech niya sa Australia,
36:57.1
diba? Sabi niya, what I'm doing is not my
36:59.0
preference. It's what my people want. More like
37:00.8
what any people, any
37:02.6
self-respecting people want. But what should be done?
37:05.1
Eh, looking forward
37:06.6
in the next few years?
37:08.5
The most critical
37:10.5
thing that we should do is
37:12.8
to get the gas in Ritbank.
37:14.9
That is really the most critical
37:17.5
our economy will be devastated
37:20.6
if we have to import LNG. It will be
37:24.5
Foreign locators here will transfer because
37:26.7
they cannot compete.
37:28.5
So, that is really the
37:31.0
crux of the matter.
37:37.2
maneuvers, it's really pointing
37:39.3
to Ritbank. Can we get the
37:41.2
gas in Ritbank? If we can, then
37:43.3
it doesn't matter if China
37:45.3
doesn't recognize our EEZ
37:47.1
because at bottom, the bottom
37:50.0
the candidate gets
37:53.2
the gas wins because that's
37:55.5
the wealth of the
37:57.3
exclusive economic zone.
37:59.2
So, we have to get the gas. Otherwise, we're
38:05.1
I just have a question because I was talking to Jay
38:09.3
Sinok of China was supposed to be involved
38:12.8
joint exploration, service contract?
38:16.1
So, Sinok Company is involved. There's an Australian, British one, right?
38:21.2
Anick, Sinok is involved in Ritbank?
38:24.5
the MOU that was signed by
38:30.2
the Chinese will participate
38:33.0
through the service contract system of the
38:35.0
government. We have issued
38:37.2
a service contract to
38:38.5
Ritbank, service contract 72
38:41.1
in favor of Forum Energy.
38:44.8
will enter into a
38:47.1
contract with Forum Energy.
38:50.5
Sinok that will be the subcontractor
38:53.3
of Forum Energy to get
38:55.1
the gas. And that was
38:57.1
supposed to be the template for
38:59.2
the entire South China Sea.
39:01.6
China will get maybe
39:09.6
the hard work of getting
39:11.5
the gas, spending money
39:13.6
for getting the gas. They get 40%
39:15.7
of the profit. And that will
39:19.6
China Sea wide. Imagine
39:21.6
if China will get 40% of all
39:23.5
the oil and gas in the South China
39:25.5
Sea. That's a win-win for them.
39:27.9
Win-win, yeah. I mean, that's the win-win.
39:30.1
That's the win-win.
39:31.1
But at the last minute, China said
39:33.1
you remove that provision in
39:34.9
the service contract which says that the oil
39:36.9
and gas belongs to the Philippines.
39:39.2
Remove that provision that
39:40.6
Philippine law will govern. And
39:42.6
because of those two demands,
39:47.2
said, sorry, we cannot violate
39:49.0
our constitution. They were too greedy.
39:51.1
They were too greedy. They wanted too much.
39:55.4
So that means they have bad diplomacy.
39:57.0
They don't know how to take the win
39:58.8
as Biden would put it. Take the win, right?
40:01.1
Take the win. Wag mong pilitin. Don't make it
40:02.9
worse, right? And that's what they did.
40:04.8
They stole it. But going
40:06.9
back to what we said, how can you
40:08.8
blame China if our president
40:11.0
was acting like a governor of their
40:12.9
province, right? If you
40:15.0
have such a subog president, and
40:16.5
you think BBM will win, and they think
40:18.8
BBM is not too different from
40:20.9
Dicong, back then, I cannot
40:25.5
Yeah. Well, they thought
40:26.9
that they could buy off our
40:28.5
leaders. I mean, that's their
40:30.9
modus operandi. But
40:36.5
he will become very unpopular if
40:38.8
we cannot get the gas in Ritbang,
40:40.9
while Malaysia is able to get their gas,
40:43.2
Indonesia is able to get their gas,
40:45.1
and we have to import very
40:46.8
expensive LNG. We'll have
40:52.5
high unemployment,
40:56.1
prices will go up. It's
41:00.5
Again, let me disagree with you vehemently,
41:03.5
Justice. I think China is
41:04.7
queried to think that they can buy politicians.
41:06.5
The question is, can they keep those politicians
41:08.5
once they bought them? I think
41:10.3
that's what, yun na hindi nila nakita,
41:12.5
parang akala nila, eto na yan, yung pala.
41:14.8
Hindi, medyo, mahirap to.
41:18.5
Maintenance ang wala sila, no?
41:20.3
Again, di umano'y. We're not saying
41:22.4
anything, pero malapit na ma-expel yung ambassador
41:24.4
nila. Tuloy-tuloy eto.
41:26.4
Just a question, wala pang update
41:28.4
kay Sir Kibuloy? Every week gawin natin yan.
41:30.9
Wala pang update. Anong maritest
41:32.4
sa Davao, Justice Carvio? Wala pang
41:34.6
nagkibuloy? Well, it
41:36.5
looks like he's still in hiding.
41:40.9
But I think they will have
41:42.6
to produce him because
41:46.5
be the laughingstock if they can't.
41:48.1
They have to produce him kasi paano man
41:50.4
mauling si Tigong pag may waran to Barista
41:52.3
kung eto nga hindi mo mauli-huli.
41:54.7
Justice Carvio, so I'm
41:56.6
trying to do something like Ezra Klein of New York
41:58.5
Times, which is, do you have recommendations of
42:00.4
readings and your own works na pwede
42:02.3
basahin ng mga tao? So Jay,
42:04.6
recommended Erizal
42:06.4
A Century Hence. And I was just reading it the
42:08.6
other night and it's so inspiring
42:10.6
and interesting. And the German
42:12.6
traveler, he also
42:14.4
nandun sa excerpt
42:16.6
sa opening of the essay,
42:18.8
he predicted that US will
42:20.6
be the dominant power here in part of the world together
42:22.6
with China and Russia and all of that. So
42:24.4
fascinating, fascinating read.
42:26.6
I really suggest you guys read it. And marami
42:28.7
siyang sinasabi na, sinabi niya in a sense na
42:30.6
if only we Filipinos can
42:32.6
go beyond our tribalistic
42:34.6
dissensions and all and be a unified country,
42:36.7
dapat kinig out na natin yung mga Espanyol
42:38.3
in 1600 pa lang, di ba? But if
42:40.5
we're just gonna be okay with who's the latest
42:44.6
neck is used to the yoke, as
42:46.5
they put it, very poetically,
42:48.3
forever na tayong ganyan.
42:50.6
Ikaw, ano yung mga inspiring works you go
42:52.6
back to? Whether it's Ilustrados, whether
42:54.5
it's someone else, whether it's international
42:56.4
luminaries, and also some of your works,
42:59.2
Justice Carpio. Of course, I know about
43:00.6
your book. Thank you for the copy, fantastic copy
43:02.4
you gave me. But for people who want to know more about
43:04.4
West Philippines and its issues, anong dapat babasahin
43:07.6
internationalists
43:14.6
teach international law
43:23.3
international law can
43:26.0
prevent wars, can save the world.
43:30.6
that's, in fact, that's the only way we
43:32.6
can prevent a third world war.
43:39.7
UN Charter, the rule
43:42.3
in international law was, might
43:44.3
is right. If you have a dispute
43:46.2
with your neighbor, with your neighboring
43:48.2
country, you go to
43:50.3
war, you win, you get
43:52.4
their territory, and that's valid.
43:54.5
I mean, you can be the
43:56.1
aggressor, but if you win,
43:59.2
what you did was correct
44:00.4
and you are rewarded.
44:01.5
The colonization.
44:02.3
I saw that in Spanish,
44:04.4
writers. Sorry, I'm being a little bit pushy.
44:07.2
I can see there's a result here.
44:08.9
I want to ask you, I was reading
44:11.0
about Pedro Paterno, and Pedro Paterno was
44:12.8
a lawyer by training, right? He would cite
44:14.8
some things about international law.
44:17.0
Are you familiar with any legitimate
44:19.2
international legal arguments from the
44:21.0
Filipino Ilustrados against
44:22.9
itong right to colonization or the Philippines' right
44:25.0
to self-determination? I'm sorry, I was just
44:26.9
thinking if you're legally geeky and historically
44:28.8
geeky, baka balikan mo yung some of this
44:30.8
work. Sorry, Justice, I'm pushing you on this.
44:34.4
Apolinario Mabini was a lawyer.
44:37.8
And he was, of course,
44:42.1
the author of the Malolos Constitution,
44:44.1
and he understood international law.
44:50.0
But going back to what I was saying,
44:52.5
when the framers of the 1945 Constitution
45:02.2
were drafting the Constitution, they realized that
45:04.4
they had to change the rule.
45:06.7
The might is right,
45:08.4
which was the rule
45:10.0
since the dawn of
45:11.7
human civilization
45:16.0
They said, if we continue with this rule,
45:19.7
the world will end
45:21.8
because we already have the nuclear bomb.
45:26.1
bomb, you cannot afford
45:29.3
might is right. If you have a territorial
45:31.7
dispute, you go to war. Whoever wins,
45:34.4
is awarded the territory.
45:37.4
You cannot have that kind of rule
45:40.9
when there are nuclear bombs
45:44.0
because that will mean the end of humanity.
45:46.7
That's the end of human civilization.
45:49.1
So the two fundamental principles of the UN Charter are this.
45:52.9
All disputes between states must be settled peacefully
45:56.5
by negotiation, mediation, arbitration.
45:59.1
And the use of force or the threat of force
46:02.4
is outlawed, prohibited.
46:04.4
Because of that, for the last
46:06.6
79 years, we did not
46:08.9
have a Third World War.
46:14.5
overturning that, using
46:16.5
force, actual invasion
46:18.3
to get the territory
46:22.0
So they are going
46:24.3
to war to settle a territorial
46:26.3
dispute, which is a no-no.
46:28.0
So if they win and
46:30.1
they succeed in getting
46:32.1
the territory of Ukraine,
46:34.4
that will be the end of the United Nations Charter.
46:40.9
China is using threat of force
46:44.2
to grab the territory and maritime zones
46:46.9
of its neighbors.
46:48.4
So these two countries are trying to overturn
46:53.7
because the UN Charter says
46:57.8
and the threat of force is outlawed.
47:00.2
But both of these countries,
47:01.8
Russia is using actual force.
47:04.4
China is using threat of force.
47:06.0
So we have to understand
47:10.9
critical point in human
47:16.0
Russia and China succeed
47:21.7
rules-based order under the UN Charter,
47:25.6
then what will happen?
47:28.6
That's a very good point.
47:29.5
Is this the book by
47:31.1
Ona Hathaway and Shapiro?
47:34.4
Plan to Outlaw War
47:36.0
the Internationalist?
47:36.9
I'm just wondering.
47:37.7
Yeah, I think you're correct.
47:39.6
It looks amazing.
47:40.6
Thank you so much, Justice.
47:42.3
I'll definitely check this.
47:43.6
I think the role of international law
47:46.3
is very underappreciated
47:48.1
in our, let's say, pedestrian discourse,
47:50.9
sometimes even in policy discourse.
47:52.9
So I really suggest people to check it out.
47:54.9
I mean, I also see the relevance of that
47:56.5
because there were some people
47:57.3
who were trying to use the Dresden bombings,
48:00.7
to justify a recent war in the Middle East.
48:02.7
And someone said,
48:03.4
actually, that's why.
48:04.4
We created international law
48:06.0
after World War II
48:06.7
so that you don't go bomb
48:08.0
the whole city of another country
48:09.4
because they killed some of your people.
48:10.6
It doesn't work that way.
48:11.9
So I think the contribution
48:14.8
of international law
48:16.1
is very important.
48:17.1
And the reason I'm glad
48:18.0
you mentioned Mabini
48:18.9
and to a certain degree,
48:20.0
I also mentioned Paterna,
48:21.3
is that we are a nation
48:22.7
of world-class lawyers,
48:24.3
not in terms of just lawyers
48:25.3
who are good in making money
48:27.4
presidential spokesman one day,
48:28.8
ex-human rights one.
48:29.6
People who use lawfare
48:32.2
to protect the interests
48:33.3
of smaller countries.
48:34.1
So thank you so much, Justice Carpio.
48:35.9
It looks like this is the kind of,
48:37.7
this is kind of like
48:38.7
your life legacy, right?
48:39.9
I mean, this is the man
48:41.5
who puts his might
48:42.6
behind what is right, right?
48:44.8
I mean, I don't want to be sentimental,
48:47.0
but I am a sentimental person,
48:49.0
It looks like that's your animating force, right?
48:52.5
And that's the idea,
48:53.8
animating your actions.
48:56.5
we don't really have a choice.
48:59.5
We are fighting China
49:01.8
with the largest naval
49:04.1
fleet in the world
49:05.2
and largest submarine force,
49:08.1
largest coast guard.
49:10.5
We will lose definitely
49:12.1
if we go toe-to-toe
49:15.0
in the South to a forum
49:16.9
where there's a level playing field
49:19.1
and that level playing field
49:20.4
is the arbitral tribunal.
49:23.3
thank you for mentioning that.
49:24.5
kibuloy na nga lang,
49:25.3
di natin mahuli-huli
49:27.1
but thank you, Justice Carpio.
49:28.9
I was hoping to end
49:29.9
on a more hopeful note,
49:31.1
but nevertheless,
49:32.3
I am very stoic like you.
49:34.1
Like, do what is right
49:35.4
regardless of the results.
49:37.2
So, we have to fight
49:39.0
Bear and forbear.
49:40.3
Thank you so much, Justice Carpio.
49:43.0
if I'm going back to you
49:45.4
So, but I'm not sorry
49:47.5
your views are very important
49:49.3
and I need the marites
49:50.3
on kibuloy and the vow
49:51.6
every other week.
49:53.8
we can have you back soon
49:54.7
and hopefully even more
49:55.7
pakulo to discuss.
49:57.1
Of course, anytime.
49:58.3
I'll be happy with you.
50:01.1
And I think our supporters,
50:02.4
ang daming mga comments here,
50:03.7
ang daming nasa-susunod.
50:04.1
Natutuwa, natatawa
50:06.3
dun sa discussions natin.
50:09.1
Have a lovely weekend
50:10.0
and a blessed Sabbath day.
50:11.9
On Sunday, of course.
