00:16.8
Because during this time,
00:18.4
dealing with allies like the Philippines
00:19.7
was quite tricky, I would say, right?
00:21.5
You had someone like President Duterte,
00:23.1
who was openly, well, he didn't cause Trump,
00:25.4
but he caused Obama, questioning the alliance.
00:28.2
But it seems President Trump and President Duterte
00:30.3
had fantastic rapport, at least at the personal level.
00:32.8
But it was quite a challenging moment
00:34.9
in the alliance between the two countries.
00:37.2
What was your understanding of that?
00:39.2
Do you think it was more like
00:40.5
the chickens are coming home to roost,
00:42.6
that something was fundamentally lacking in the alliance,
00:44.9
or you're just dealing with some other crazy dictator?
00:49.5
Honestly, what was your understanding?
00:51.9
I mean, you're now out of this.
00:53.1
Yeah, yeah, sure. No, no.
00:54.3
I mean, so I didn't deal with the Philippines
00:57.7
When I was in the Trump administration,
01:00.2
my job was primarily,
01:01.3
I did have engagements with allies,
01:03.6
but my job was primarily internally focused
01:07.3
So I don't speak about the management
01:10.6
of the relationship,
01:12.1
the very important relationship with Manila,
01:13.8
with any kind of authority from that sort of perspective.
01:17.1
People like Randy Shriver,
01:18.5
a good friend of mine who I admire greatly,
01:20.3
he would have a much clearer sense
01:22.2
of what that, or another, Eli Ratner,
01:25.8
same, very good friend,
01:26.9
someone I admire a lot,
01:27.7
who they would have a better...
01:29.4
What I will say is kind of looking at it
01:31.2
from, I guess, in the Pentagon,
01:33.1
but also just watching that relationship
01:34.6
closely over the years.
01:36.8
You know, it's interesting, Richard,
01:38.0
I would actually apply a similar approach
01:41.1
as I apply to our domestic policy.
01:42.9
It's actually interesting.
01:43.5
I think this is relevant, for instance,
01:44.8
in looking at how we're managing the relationship,
01:46.7
say, with South Korea right now,
01:48.5
which is to say, obviously,
01:51.1
I think what President Marcos is doing
01:52.5
is exceptional and deserves our support
01:56.1
and applause and engagement.
01:57.7
And we should facilitate that
01:59.7
in whatever way possible.
02:01.0
On the other hand,
02:01.9
President Duterte presumably represents
02:04.3
some significant, at least latent element
02:06.9
in Philippine society.
02:09.0
And, you know, there are reasons for them.
02:12.3
Some are probably better than others.
02:14.5
As the war weariness in our country,
02:17.0
some of the reasons are probably better than others.
02:18.9
But it is a political fact.
02:20.8
And it can be changed over time.
02:23.8
But I think the best way to change it
02:25.7
is to engage with the people.
02:27.7
Engage with it and be sensitive to it.
02:29.2
And that's, I think, a really important part.
02:30.6
I mean, just to bring it back to America for once,
02:32.5
I think of the political strategy
02:34.1
of a lot of those neo-Reaganites today
02:36.0
who continue to hold the levers of power.
02:38.8
It was interesting yesterday in Foreign Policy,
02:40.6
Jack Detch, who's a good reporter,
02:41.9
he put it, you know,
02:43.1
a lot of the committee chairs
02:44.0
are still in that neo-Reaganite faction,
02:46.4
but they're retiring.
02:47.8
They're fading, right?
02:49.2
Their political strategy is mystifying to me
02:51.0
because it involves excluding
02:53.0
and talking down to the skeptics
02:56.0
rather than engaging with them.
02:57.7
And so I think that's actually
02:58.7
just going to make their situation worse.
03:00.3
And it makes it more likely
03:01.5
that ultimately we pursue
03:04.1
and ill-advised version of restraints.
03:07.2
So if I'm taking the same logic,
03:09.1
since I hadn't kind of thought
03:10.0
of this connection,
03:10.6
but to the Philippines,
03:12.1
I would say we need to support
03:13.6
President Marcos, et cetera,
03:15.6
but we need to understand
03:16.8
that there is a significant,
03:18.4
you know, current in Philippine society
03:20.2
and in Philippine thinking
03:21.8
that for obvious historic reasons
03:23.3
and so forth is, you know,
03:24.8
there's a degree of resentment
03:25.7
about the United States.
03:27.7
pretend that that's gone,
03:28.9
but let's work with it.
03:31.0
The analogy I use in South Korea is,
03:33.3
you know, President Yoon
03:34.2
obviously has been very active
03:36.0
in working with the United States
03:37.0
and that's great.
03:40.0
I'm not sure that reflects
03:41.9
an enduring, you know,
03:45.5
or most powerful factor
03:47.5
in South Korean society.
03:49.3
And the midterm elections,
03:51.9
the parliamentary elections,
03:53.2
you know, are indicative.
03:55.3
They did not go well
03:55.9
for President Yoon's party.
03:56.8
I mean, I don't want to,
03:57.7
you know, comment about,
03:58.5
but just looking at it
03:59.1
from a strategic perspective,
04:01.1
I think we should assume
04:02.4
that there is an enduring element
04:04.4
on the Japan issue,
04:06.5
obviously the kind of
04:07.5
more left-wing perspective
04:08.7
towards North Korea
04:09.5
that has not just disappeared.
04:11.8
So the way that I would think about,
04:13.5
again, bringing it back
04:14.2
to the Philippines is,
04:15.4
let's do as much as we can
04:17.9
because we need to focus
04:18.6
on the military situation
04:19.6
and the defense of the Philippines
04:21.7
But we also should be,
04:23.0
you know, cognizant
04:24.6
that this is still very present.
04:27.7
And needs to be respected
04:29.4
even if we don't agree with it
04:30.7
and engaged with.
04:32.1
Yeah, that was a very good
04:34.1
diplomatic answer.
04:35.3
No, but it was substantive.
04:37.4
Well, I mean it, actually.
04:38.4
I'm not trying to...
04:39.0
It wasn't vacuous.
04:40.5
It was substantive.
04:41.8
But, I mean, artfully put,
04:43.8
I would put it that way.
04:45.1
I mean, you're absolutely right.
04:46.5
I mean, it is true that,
04:48.7
you know, Duterte
04:49.6
could be easily dismissed
04:51.7
oh, he was just some crazy guy.
04:54.4
don't worry about it.
04:55.2
But I think there is
04:57.7
minority at least
04:58.9
and influential folks,
05:00.8
you know, including in my circles
05:03.5
it's an important alliance.
05:05.5
China is a threat.
05:06.7
But we were taken for granted
05:08.1
for far, far too long.
05:09.8
I mean, I understand
05:11.3
if the U.S. has been
05:12.6
sending hundreds of billions of dollars
05:14.0
to some special allies
05:15.3
in some part of the world.
05:16.6
But when I see the Pakistan's
05:18.4
and Jordan's of this world,
05:21.1
enjoying more state of the art
05:25.2
Egypt, well, I understand
05:28.2
you wonder if something's
05:33.4
I mean, obviously,
05:34.2
I can talk about deficits
05:35.6
on the Philippines part,
05:36.9
but I think it would be unfair
05:38.1
to just blame the Philippines
05:39.4
for any shortcomings
05:41.2
and deficits in this alliance.
05:42.7
And to be honest,
05:43.6
I think folks from both
05:44.7
sides of the political spectrum
05:47.0
you know, you don't want
05:48.8
whereby one side is a rentier,
05:52.0
Meaning it's just basing access
05:53.2
and the other side
05:53.9
is about weapons.
05:54.6
You know, you want to have
05:55.3
a symmetrical relationship.
05:56.5
You know, you want to have
05:57.5
Well, maybe it's,
05:59.1
people make the same point
05:59.9
about President Trump.
06:00.8
You know, the people in NATO
06:01.4
who said, oh, phew, he's gone.
06:03.2
That was going to,
06:03.7
and now it's like, you know,
06:04.6
actually they got the attention
06:05.5
that President Trump
06:07.6
reflects very real sentiments
06:10.2
and structural factors
06:13.6
that need to be addressed
06:14.6
in the NATO alliance
06:15.3
and actually doing NATO a favor
06:16.8
by forcing them to grapple
06:20.6
before it becomes too late.
06:22.5
And so, you know,
06:25.5
I think President Marcos
06:27.0
absolutely the right policy,
06:28.8
but I think we did,
06:29.7
we did get a wake-up call
06:31.7
and I mean, we probably did.
06:32.7
There probably was a degree
06:33.5
in which the assay
06:34.2
took Manila for granted.
06:36.5
now we've been put on notice
06:37.5
and let's take it seriously
06:39.2
and let's take the sting
06:40.5
out of that critique
06:43.2
you know, sincerely.
06:44.9
for my own small part,
06:46.4
but just as an example,
06:48.1
we talked about when we met,
06:49.3
I mean, I spent a week in Manila.
06:51.7
to the Philippines before,
06:54.1
I need to spend some time here.
06:55.6
I need to talk to people.
06:57.8
I think that's the kind of,
06:58.9
just in a microcosm,
06:59.9
but that's the kind of approach
07:01.6
instead of going to Germany
07:03.3
for the 5,000th time,
07:05.8
yes, it takes a little bit longer
07:06.9
to get out to Southeast Asia,
07:08.0
but Asia is more important
07:10.5
we should act accordingly.
07:13.0
Sorry to our friends,
07:14.8
that's the thing.
07:16.8
you don't have to apologize.
07:17.7
I've met many Americans
07:18.8
who say they have never been
07:19.9
into the Philippines
07:20.5
or they have just been
07:21.4
to Philippines once or twice.
07:22.9
these are ex-military people.
07:24.2
These are people who serve
07:25.2
in top positions.
07:28.7
I think this conversation
07:30.4
in a good moment,
07:33.1
awakening on all fronts.
07:36.2
everyone's talking about
07:37.0
a Trump 2.0 administration
07:38.8
and how should we deal with it.
07:40.3
And you can expect in Europe
07:41.9
what would be the rhetoric.
07:43.8
you can see they're already moving.
07:45.3
I think former Prime Minister Asa
07:46.9
just met former President Trump recently.
07:50.4
In the Philippines,
07:51.7
I think people are confident
07:52.9
that Marcos and Trump
07:55.1
would hit it off well
07:58.0
This is an old relationship.
08:02.2
the mom who's still around,
08:03.2
had a fantastic relationship.
08:05.5
Oh, is that true?
08:06.1
I didn't actually know.
08:08.0
you can Google it.
08:11.1
the Marcos spent a lot of time
08:14.2
There's the New York connection
08:16.5
Well, and they were close
08:17.0
with Reagan and...
08:18.4
Exactly, exactly.
08:19.7
So, there's a lot of
08:21.3
intersectional...
08:24.1
Filipinos have a special,
08:25.9
given our history,
08:26.5
we have a special connection
08:29.0
Yeah, but I agree.
08:30.6
I think the Philippine relationship
08:33.0
I think the Republicans
08:33.7
and President Trump
08:36.1
but I think under any...
08:38.2
You know, it's interesting.
08:40.2
That New York Times article
08:41.6
I mean, I give a lot of credit
08:42.6
to what people like
08:43.2
Eli Ratner are doing
08:45.9
and Charlie Flynn
08:47.8
are really deserved
08:48.8
tremendous credit.
08:50.2
as the old Saturday Night Live,
08:52.2
That's the issue.
08:53.4
it's more a race.
08:54.2
We're trying to have
08:54.7
a race to the top
08:56.6
who would do better
08:57.2
and who would have more focus
08:59.8
that's where the dynamic
09:02.1
will be on the first island chain.
09:04.5
Yeah, I think this is
09:05.4
where we're going to transition
09:06.2
to perhaps the penultimate part
09:08.2
of our discussion for now
09:09.5
and I hope we'll have
09:10.3
more and more discussion
09:11.2
throughout the coming months.
09:15.2
I just want to also add,
09:16.4
I think one of the things
09:17.3
some of us Filipinas,
09:20.8
and I think many Americans
09:22.1
forget Philippines
09:23.7
of the United States.
09:25.0
I think sometimes
09:25.3
the country is...
09:25.9
I know, not our province.
09:26.5
It never happened.
09:27.7
No, we were colonized.
09:31.3
a special status,
09:34.2
from the American point of view.
09:37.1
The more Hispanic part in us
09:38.8
is angry at you gringos
09:41.4
from the revolution, right?
09:44.0
It's a part of us.
09:45.6
We beat the Espanoles
09:46.6
and then you guys came in
09:47.6
and gringos took over.
09:49.9
Let's talk about 21st century
09:51.3
and let's talk about
09:52.3
what's happening right now.
09:54.0
So, fundamentally,
09:55.4
I think the argument
09:56.4
here and then you could see
09:57.8
both of us have been
09:58.7
making this argument.
10:00.8
how American can fight
10:03.7
in any major theater.
10:06.2
I think the consensus
10:09.3
is the best that America has.
10:11.2
if you have Russia
10:13.3
already in Ukraine,
10:19.0
we know the development
10:19.7
is also in the Middle East,
10:20.6
a tricky situation,
10:21.8
but things are moving
10:22.8
also in Asia as we speak.
10:24.2
So, can you tell me,
10:25.8
what is your reading
10:26.4
of this new emergency fund
10:27.9
passed by the Senate
10:30.1
by President Biden?
10:33.4
if I'm not mistaken.
10:34.0
So, it's a huge amount
10:35.4
we're talking about.
10:37.3
One of the leading members
10:38.2
of the Senate was saying
10:39.1
it's not a lot of money,
10:47.6
for humanitarian needs,
10:48.8
and then $8 billion
10:49.9
for the Indo-Pacific.
10:51.2
I just want to be clear.
10:51.7
The entire Indo-Pacific.
10:53.3
Entire Indo-Pacific,
10:54.3
not the Philippines alone.
10:56.0
I'm not talking about that.
10:56.4
I'm talking about Taiwan.
10:56.8
I think Taiwan is like
10:57.7
$2 billion or less.
10:59.5
And like Gallagher said
11:00.8
in one of his more lucid
11:01.9
commentary on this,
11:10.3
it's kind of puerile,
11:15.3
and I say that advisedly
11:16.9
because we are making choices.
11:20.0
And what's very frustrating
11:21.9
is that we are not
11:23.0
facing those choices.
11:25.1
I would actually prefer
11:26.4
it if people would say
11:28.6
we're choosing Europe
11:33.3
almost $94 or $5 billion
11:36.1
is a lot of money
11:38.8
especially Republicans,
11:39.9
but the country as a whole
11:40.9
is very concerned
11:45.1
And people are war-weary.
11:48.1
that amount of money,
11:49.3
that money is zero-sum.
11:52.9
sorry Dick Cheney,
11:53.6
deficits do matter.
11:56.4
Jay Powell has said
11:56.7
that interest rates
11:57.4
are becoming huge.
11:58.7
So like a president
12:05.3
about this as possible.
12:06.5
I think the Chinese
12:07.2
have plenty of reasons
12:08.3
why they would use
12:10.1
against the United States.
12:11.1
As Eli Ratner has said,
12:12.3
not just to solve
12:13.1
the Taiwan issue,
12:13.9
but to drive the Americans
12:14.7
out of the Western Pacific.
12:15.8
You mentioned the example
12:16.9
of the Philippines.
12:17.7
It's worth pointing out
12:18.6
the United States,
12:19.7
at least as I understand it,
12:20.9
our initial war goals
12:23.3
were not the acquisition
12:24.4
of the Philippines,
12:25.1
but because of the dynamic
12:26.3
created by the defeat
12:30.1
German intervention,
12:31.3
we ended up going
12:32.1
into the Philippines.
12:32.5
Stumbled into empire.
12:33.8
I think that's the truth.
12:34.7
which is unfortunate.
12:35.6
But if you're China
12:36.5
and you defeat the Americans
12:37.8
in a war over the Western Pacific,
12:40.1
why don't you solve
12:40.8
the Philippines question
12:42.5
from a position of advantage?
12:44.0
And they are building
12:44.6
a military to do that.
12:45.8
So that's the way
12:47.0
to deter the Chinese
12:51.4
is with military forces.
12:53.0
economic sanctions
12:53.8
are frankly a joke.
12:56.8
the Russians obviously
12:58.0
are not being influenced
12:58.8
in any material way.
13:00.9
The Chinese are not really,
13:02.0
the Chinese are doing
13:03.0
or basically propping up
13:04.2
the Russian war effort
13:05.9
just without violating
13:07.1
the European sanctions
13:09.2
even as they prepare
13:10.1
to be sanctioned,
13:10.9
which is telling.
13:12.2
And then even worse,
13:14.4
this is really pathetic
13:15.6
that this has happened,
13:18.5
about the inutility
13:19.5
of economic sanctions.
13:26.8
the Supreme Allied
13:28.0
Commander of Europe,
13:28.9
the Russian military
13:29.8
has reconstituted already.
13:33.2
don't take it from me,
13:34.5
I thought it would take
13:35.0
a few more years,
13:36.2
but it's already reconstituted.
13:37.4
Their defense industry
13:39.1
and the North Koreans
13:41.3
who were probably
13:42.6
somewhat for the Chinese
13:43.5
are basically helping them out
13:46.1
as they go along.
13:49.2
the war in Ukraine
13:50.7
is not going well.
13:52.7
with the Ukrainian cause,
13:54.0
but I think we've talked
13:55.2
for strategic progress.
13:57.5
And so in this context
14:00.5
don't take it from me,
14:01.6
look what Sam Paparo
14:03.4
where we are not,
14:04.8
we're doing better,
14:05.9
but we are not doing
14:06.8
as well as the other side.
14:08.7
And as Top Gun says,
14:09.8
there are no points
14:10.5
for second place.
14:11.5
If you're a runner
14:13.7
over the off season
14:14.8
and you lost weight,
14:15.8
that's not enough
14:17.5
you defeat your opponent.
14:20.1
It's common sense.
14:25.3
did not use the opportunity,
14:29.1
towards the Pacific,
14:32.0
towards a clearer strategy
14:36.6
and not to mention
14:41.6
such opportunities
14:44.1
these triple bank shot
14:46.4
that things are going
14:51.0
another propaganda
14:53.6
the defense industrial base
14:54.5
by funding Ukraine.
14:56.9
because the money
14:57.8
to the defense industrial base
14:58.6
is going to be used
15:02.4
and the defense industrial base
15:04.1
not just because of money,
15:05.7
but because of skilled labor,
15:07.6
because of the scarcity
15:09.8
So we're choosing Ukraine
15:11.5
and where I don't think
15:14.7
I don't see a path
15:15.9
for the Ukrainians
15:16.5
to quote unquote win.
15:18.0
I think they could,
15:19.1
a viable defensive strategy
15:21.2
to something like Korea.
15:22.7
That's a rational goal.
15:26.3
almost immediately
15:26.9
after the supplemental pass,
15:28.7
we're now seeing,
15:29.5
and if you look at my Twitter,
15:30.2
I've highlighted a bunch of these,
15:31.3
where they're already forecasting
15:33.2
for another supplemental.
15:41.5
and I'm not even mentioning
15:43.0
where we're blowing through
15:44.0
critical munitions,
15:51.7
of the Iranian missiles,
15:55.7
without acknowledging
15:59.0
we are making decisions
16:05.1
it's really an indictment
16:07.2
and political class
16:08.2
that we are not doing this
16:09.6
with forethought.
16:11.4
I think any business
16:12.4
that was run like this,
16:13.5
they would fire the leadership
16:14.5
because they're not,
16:16.1
they're not openly
16:18.3
like I would object,
16:20.1
I would object on principle,
16:21.7
but it wouldn't be such
16:28.6
if it were at least
16:29.3
done consciously,
16:30.5
then at least we could try
16:32.5
and have a rational conversation,
16:35.7
in fairytale land
16:40.2
the people who are going
16:40.8
to pay are frontline allies.
16:42.7
another example is like,
16:44.2
you got Kirk Campbell
16:45.0
out there talking about
16:47.0
nuclear deterrent
16:50.0
the North Koreans
16:51.0
of nuclear weapons,
16:52.2
our missile defenses
16:58.5
I think fewer than
17:01.7
nuclear deterrent
17:02.4
commitment to South Korea,
17:05.5
if the North Koreans
17:07.0
particularly in the context
17:07.9
of a war with China
17:10.9
in the Pacific Northwest
17:13.8
is that a realistic,
17:14.8
is that a credible strategy?
17:20.4
Let's talk about that.
17:21.6
I really appreciate
17:22.8
this intervention.
17:23.8
just to be clear,
17:24.4
I think both of us,
17:26.7
people of Ukraine.
17:29.4
this is where you and I
17:31.1
will definitely disagree
17:31.8
with John Mersheimer.
17:32.9
I'm not going to go
17:35.0
I think on Russia,
17:36.1
he got it like 100% wrong.
17:38.7
Russia has some agency
17:40.2
Exactly, exactly.
17:42.6
I'm sure if someone
17:43.6
less Putin was there,
17:45.0
it probably would be
17:45.7
a different word.
17:48.9
about 90 billion.
17:50.5
in a reasonable world,
17:51.9
are you looking at
17:52.6
what kind of split?
17:53.8
50 billion to in the Pacific,
17:55.7
20 billion to Ukraine.
17:57.6
just an idea, right?
17:59.1
order of magnitude.
18:00.8
Order of magnitude.
18:02.7
60 billion to the Pacific,
18:05.3
20 billion to Ukraine,
18:06.7
and 20 billion to Israel
18:08.4
Something like that.
18:08.9
And then something for the border
18:10.1
and changes in policy
18:12.4
That's a separate,
18:13.4
Speaking of this,
18:15.1
so that we don't run
18:17.2
we're calling for
18:18.1
abandonment of Ukraine.
18:19.9
just the first level,
18:21.5
what do you think
18:22.2
is a reasonable strategy?
18:24.2
any reasonable strategy
18:25.7
we should put Ukraine
18:26.9
to negotiate peace.
18:30.8
I think the right,
18:32.6
actually what General Zaluzhny
18:35.7
made a lot of sense to me.
18:37.5
the Russians have,
18:38.4
what Mearsheimer says,
18:40.0
that they have more money
18:40.8
and people and weapons
18:41.8
and they're highly resolute
18:45.0
the Ukrainian population
18:47.0
so a defensive strategy,
18:49.2
taking advantage of technology.
18:50.7
There was just something
18:51.3
about how the Ukrainians
18:52.2
are pulling Abrams tanks
18:53.2
out of the front line
18:55.7
tanks are so vulnerable
18:56.8
and electronic warfare
19:02.2
defensive fortifications
19:04.9
of what the Russians did
19:07.1
all these sort of things.
19:09.6
a lot of what I'm doing
19:11.8
a credible signal
19:15.4
send a credible signal
19:17.1
that they really do need
19:19.3
with what President Biden
19:22.2
having all these nice photo ops
19:23.4
and being nice to the Europeans,
19:25.7
of the burden shifting,
19:27.2
which is inevitable
19:28.1
because it reflects
19:28.9
structural factors.
19:29.8
he's actually hurting
19:30.5
the Transatlantic Alliance
19:32.0
rather than helping.
19:33.9
that there could be
19:36.4
is actually helping
19:38.7
the necessary sense
19:43.7
Macron says a lot of things.
19:44.9
The follow-through
19:46.9
European Minister
19:48.3
of Defense Pistorius
19:51.7
may need to go 3.5%.
19:53.2
The polls are doing,
19:55.3
political divide.
19:56.7
We need to encourage that
19:58.2
exactly to give them
19:59.8
a position of strength
20:01.3
negotiated settlement
20:02.5
even if it's temporary.
20:04.0
are going to be a threat.
20:05.4
we need to be realistic.
20:08.0
can't be the ones
20:10.1
shouldering the load,
20:11.1
which is the biggest.
20:14.7
I'll tell you what.
20:18.4
behind the scenes,
20:21.3
of European friends.
20:22.3
I think behind the scenes,
20:23.2
there is a recognition
20:25.8
Europe has to step up
20:28.8
if Trump wins again,
20:30.7
there is going to be
20:31.3
the usual diplomatic
20:34.6
if I can put it that way.
20:36.1
behind the scenes,
20:38.3
there's this idea of,
20:40.3
Europe has to be jolted out.
20:43.3
and to a lesser degree,
20:44.8
would have to really
20:45.5
step up their game,
20:47.2
Germany is by far
20:48.4
the biggest economy.
20:49.5
of the European economy.
20:50.6
it's mostly about Germany.
20:51.7
the Poles are doing their part.
20:52.7
The Brits talk a bigger game
20:54.5
than they follow through on.
20:56.2
other countries will plug in
20:57.3
if the Germans do their part.
20:58.5
that's why I spend a lot of time
21:02.0
I think it's for their own benefit.
21:04.5
for the benefit of the countries
21:06.0
that are most vulnerable
21:06.8
to Russian aggression,
21:08.5
were the countries
21:09.0
that the Germans occupied
21:10.7
they have a special obligation
21:15.7
you're a little bit more optimistic
21:17.1
with the Polans of this world.
21:18.9
I think Poland has stepped up
21:21.0
Poland's been great.
21:23.5
I really elevate them
21:24.4
whenever I get a chance.
21:25.2
I talk to the Poles all the time.
21:26.9
They don't like my prioritization
21:28.3
for reasons that,
21:29.0
if I were Polish,
21:29.6
I would be arguing against it, too.
21:31.5
they understand where I'm coming from.
21:33.5
I think there's an alignment
21:35.6
where the Poles are doing,
21:36.9
the Poles trust the Americans,
21:38.8
but they want to make sure
21:39.9
that they don't overweight
21:41.2
on the American commitment
21:42.7
by building up their own
21:43.8
very significant defense capability,
21:45.3
which makes it easier
21:46.1
for the American people
21:47.0
to substantiate that commitment.
21:49.0
Since the commitment,
21:49.5
and this is the thing,
21:51.4
this guy in the FT
21:52.6
for saying that we would
21:53.4
withhold forces in the event,
21:55.1
to your point about
21:58.5
it's only rational
21:59.9
for an American president,
22:01.3
whether it's President Biden
22:02.0
or President Trump,
22:03.3
to withhold forces
22:04.5
in the event of a conflict
22:05.8
because Asia's more important.
22:08.6
our stated strategy.
22:10.2
I'm just following the logic
22:11.2
of we don't have enough.
22:13.2
if we put all of the key forces
22:15.3
into a war in Europe
22:16.6
and they're tied down
22:17.9
the Chinese would be crazy
22:20.0
Then we get a worse situation
22:21.3
and Europe is worse off
22:25.4
vacuum our forces
22:26.3
out of the rest of the world.
22:28.7
who's doing anybody a favor
22:30.1
by hiding that fact?
22:31.5
That's not helping the Europeans.
22:32.7
They should understand that.
22:34.9
That doesn't mean leaving NATO.
22:36.8
here's what we can do.
22:39.1
I've made too many loans.
22:40.4
Here's what I can pay back.
22:46.4
I know your answer,
22:47.3
but I think this has to be asked.
22:48.9
Do you think the Chinese now
22:50.2
are deliberately supporting
22:54.0
But you guys down
22:54.9
in other regions.
23:00.2
the Chinese know what they're doing.
23:02.1
Blinken's over there.
23:03.0
we're going to sanction,
23:05.7
the NATO ambassador
23:06.3
is trying to put pressure on them
23:09.4
the ambassador was like,
23:10.6
I can't believe it.
23:12.6
these people are not stupid.
23:14.9
they're probably smarter than we are.
23:19.1
I'm not saying they're actively,
23:23.2
from the Sherlock Holmes story,
23:24.1
behind every single shot until,
23:26.2
it's more like the other,
23:28.4
who will rid me of this meddlesome priest?
23:30.3
the story of Henry II,
23:33.6
if you decide to do something
23:35.3
in the Middle East,
23:37.8
I'll be behind you.
23:38.9
I don't actually need to know,
23:41.0
did Putin tell Xi exactly
23:42.8
what's going to happen?
23:45.6
That's not even necessary,
23:49.0
is in great shape.
23:50.4
they're having economic problems.
23:52.0
That's a different story.
23:53.4
But from a strategic point of view,
23:56.1
they are doing very well
23:57.7
in the last few years.
24:00.4
almost a whole year's worth
24:01.6
of SM-6 missiles,
24:03.1
which are very expensive
24:06.6
Those are critical
24:08.3
We shot a whole year's worth,
24:11.0
against the Houthis
24:12.0
with no discernible result
24:14.2
by the president's own admission,
24:15.5
and now his special envoy
24:17.4
it only has a diplomatic solution.
24:22.8
here's some money,
24:23.4
we're going to light it on fire
24:24.8
no particular purpose.
24:26.5
that's how bad the situation is.
24:29.0
just stick the box,
24:30.6
we did something about,
24:31.8
what they were doing
24:33.0
or something like that.
24:34.4
what is the ideal situation
24:39.4
to the Biden administration,
24:41.2
and then you and I,
24:42.3
we know about L.A. Reitner,
24:44.0
there are a lot of smart people inside.
24:45.7
We know there are fantastic people
24:48.1
in terms of the China.
24:53.0
We're still in the diplomatic nice mode.
24:56.1
That's as nice as I'll go.
24:57.4
Let's give it up.
25:00.4
there are certain things
25:03.4
there's the trilaterals,
25:07.7
There's the AUKUS.
25:09.5
there's what I call JAFOS,
25:14.0
This seems quite interesting.
25:16.6
building blocks of a potential,
25:18.5
let's call it the great wall of democracy.
25:21.2
Or what you call the counter hegemonic kind of coalition and all.
25:25.8
So the ideal situation for you is
25:28.1
whoever becomes the next president next year
25:32.7
you draw down in other parts of the world,
25:35.0
help your allies to be strong.
25:36.7
you have very powerful allies in NATO
25:38.4
and also powerful allies in the Middle East,
25:40.1
as we can see in the recent rounds of the developments.
25:43.4
So it's really about helping the Koreas and Japan,
25:49.1
Can you tell me about,
25:50.2
your understanding of how should the America approach this next year?
25:56.3
let me put it really pointedly.
25:59.0
I think the Biden administration,
26:00.1
so what Eli and what the military is going on,
26:03.0
the military side is,
26:04.0
is very encouraging,
26:04.8
but it's inadequate.
26:05.6
And that's not because of the lack of,
26:07.0
of any comment on him.
26:08.7
that has to do with macro factors in terms of overall orientation of the
26:11.8
administration and then structural factors that go back along a long time.
26:16.0
But it's inadequate.
26:18.0
and so my basic view is the Biden administration is,
26:20.2
Asia policy will look great if there's no war or Berlin or Cuba style
26:23.6
crisis with China.
26:24.7
But I think there's a very real chance of a war,
26:26.9
especially if we continue to underestimate the military capacity,
26:30.5
because these multi,
26:32.5
these mini lateral lattice stuff is fine.
26:36.7
They're good in some,
26:38.8
especially if they lead to improvements in the military situation,
26:42.3
which they are in places like Japan and in the Philippines,
26:45.5
albeit inadequately.
26:46.9
And that's the key point.
26:48.2
What worries me is two things.
26:50.0
they give a false sense of confidence that things are moving,
26:53.7
which like they're not moving fast enough.
26:56.4
So like if we have a bunch of photo ops at Camp David and the Japanese and
27:01.0
the Koreans make nice,
27:02.1
what's going on at the level of the military balance that's changed adequate
27:07.9
That's the point.
27:08.4
There's no points for second place.
27:10.8
I think there is a risk.
27:12.3
It contributes to a Chinese perception of being encircled and contained and
27:17.0
which is the term that Xi Jinping apparently uses.
27:18.7
So it accelerates their,
27:19.9
their aggressive potential.
27:22.0
So from a position of weakness and coupled with the economic measures.
27:26.2
banning TikTok ain't going to do anything about defeating a Chinese invasion
27:29.8
They're not going to invade.
27:31.2
You're not going to defeat the PLA with hashtags,
27:35.8
And I don't want to.
27:37.1
we should speak softly and carry a big stick.
27:39.1
I think there's been a lot of big flashy stuff,
27:41.8
which is not bad and can be good,
27:45.0
but we need to see what the results are relative.
27:48.5
what the pro said to,
27:49.5
what the Chinese are doing and the North Koreans are doing,
27:52.9
And that's the big problem.
27:55.1
I would actually kind of tone down some of the stuff potentially not,
28:00.8
but like really focus on the concrete stuff and making sure the military
28:05.3
balance is adequate,
28:08.1
that's not a matter of having a meeting at Camp David.
28:11.0
if you need to have the meeting at Camp David,
28:13.2
but maybe you don't make such a big deal out of it in terms of the photo
28:16.9
all that sort of thing.
28:19.5
you can end up with the worst of both worlds,
28:21.4
Antagonist necessarily,
28:23.3
but at the same time,
28:25.0
That's what I feel like we're doing.
28:27.0
I could guess that last year on the South China sea issue.
28:33.3
What is your read of what's happening right now?
28:36.4
we talked about gray zone strategy by China,
28:38.5
anything short of,
28:42.0
they're using water cannons that are 10 times the power of Mike Tyson.
28:46.1
if you can put it in aggressive punch power and we,
28:49.0
we have Philippine Naval officers.
28:51.1
So I think the sense in the Philippines is we're doing our part,
28:54.7
perhaps even more than anyone expected,
28:56.7
given our capabilities and all.
28:59.4
What do you think should be America's response here without being patronizing?
29:04.7
Because I think if Philippines still do the resupply on,
29:06.8
but what is the optimum American response to an ally,
29:11.3
us will be dragged into a war.
29:13.0
If something goes crazy there,
29:14.2
what should be it?
29:15.4
I think we need to stand with the Philippines on that point.
29:17.9
obviously we need to be prudent,
29:19.0
together and we should plan together,
29:20.3
but I think it is correct because you know,
29:23.8
this Philippines has put its neck out a lot on,
29:25.8
on a lot also on basing and access and so forth.
29:28.1
So I actually don't know what the Chinese are thinking.
29:31.1
It's a bit mystifying to me because it seems to be infuriating to the Philippines without being truly intimidating.
29:37.0
and Beijing had managed to alienate president Marcos and I think the Philippine population.
29:44.5
they're not obviously not dumb.
29:46.0
So I don't know what they're doing.
29:47.4
I don't know what exactly,
29:48.7
I think what we're doing now,
29:50.7
seems within the realm of,
29:53.1
the right answer.
29:54.3
the South China Sea,
29:55.0
I think a lot of it,
29:56.6
it's hard to deal with because the,
29:58.0
the Chinese are not seizing,
29:59.9
they're not seizing occupied areas.
30:01.4
They're creating new land in places where they just have that capacity advantage.
30:06.3
I think it's a very difficult issue.
30:09.3
and certainly very concerning.
30:11.7
And lastly on Taiwan,
30:13.9
what's your understanding of the Taiwan situation?
30:16.5
Are you of the belief that,
30:18.2
that China's planning will depend on how prepared we are?
30:21.8
Or is that China's plan?
30:23.5
Or this is all just blah,
30:27.6
I think there's no peaceful unification scenario in the near term,
30:31.5
And if Xi Jinping believes that Taiwan is necessary for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation,
30:36.2
or that Taiwan might continue moving away from them.
30:38.6
And also there's the strangulation issues at the macroeconomic level.
30:41.8
I think then war becomes a very rational option if they can succeed.
30:46.3
And that's where military denial,
30:48.2
becomes so vital both by,
30:50.3
my main concern there is our inadequate detention attention given the scale of the threat and Taiwan's manifest lack of urgency relative to the scale of the threat.
30:59.1
I think they're moving in the right direction on asymmetric defense and so forth.
31:02.0
But it's ridiculous that that country spends like 2.5% of GDP on defense.
31:06.0
they should be spending 10% if it were up to me.
31:08.0
I don't know if I were them,
31:10.5
And they should be making the case for prioritizing Taiwan.
31:13.2
It's absolutely absurd to have people like B Kim Chow and Joseph Wu be calling for Ukraine.
31:19.2
they could have gotten $40 billion out of that.
31:23.0
the number one argument I get against,
31:25.7
probably the most effective argument against,
31:27.6
against my position to try to help Taiwan defend itself is,
31:30.7
the Taiwanese don't seem to,
31:35.2
and when the Chinese move and attack,
31:36.8
people will remember that they didn't think it was urgent enough for themselves.
31:42.0
So it makes my arguments a lot harder.
31:45.1
and I've said this to them directly.
31:48.2
you're concerned of potential also technological complacency considering the,
31:53.3
Russia didn't do very well during its invasion.
31:55.7
And we saw the superiority of NATO weapon systems.
31:59.1
this is divorced from our analysis of where the war is going,
32:01.4
but I think there is also a risk to saying,
32:03.8
these are just a bunch of paper tiger authoritarian powers,
32:06.7
We can take care of them.
32:07.9
that's obviously not,
32:08.7
the Ukrainians don't think that anymore.
32:12.0
electronic warfare drones,
32:13.3
the Russians have adapted significantly.
32:15.2
we've learned from the conflict in Ukraine,
32:16.9
but presumably so have the Chinese.
32:18.9
So we should definitely not take.
32:21.0
who are we to be so arrogant?
32:25.1
we were very successful against Iraq.
32:28.4
We were successful against the Taliban in the initial phases,
32:32.9
We did not succeed in Vietnam and we were fought to a draw.
32:36.7
And the Chinese pushed us halfway down the peninsula in Korea when they were
32:42.6
in certain technologically and economically.
32:45.2
we should go back to that post Vietnam idea of respect,
32:48.2
respecting our adversaries.
32:50.9
And that's not where we are right now.
32:56.0
I know I have to go.
32:57.4
I know I could see that.
32:58.5
Thank you so much.
33:02.3
Let's continue this conversation.
33:03.7
And thank you so much for joining us.
33:07.1
how can people follow you and where can they find your works and books and how can they follow?
33:14.0
I'm at Elbridge Colby on X or Twitter.
33:18.2
an initiative you can check out online for our longer articles and so forth.
33:21.6
I have a lot of interviews up there and my book,
33:23.6
the strategy of denial is available from Yale university press.
33:27.9
it should be available in Asia,
33:29.1
but also it's been translated into Japanese,
33:31.7
Korean and Chinese on Taiwan.
33:34.5
Congratulations on that.
33:35.8
Thank you so much.
33:36.5
And have a lovely.
