00:47.0
By 2019, more than $300 billion of Japanese overseas infrastructure investment funds were committed to Southeast Asian countries.
00:56.5
And in some countries like Vietnam and Japan, it was not even close to China,
01:00.2
which had committed more than just $200 billion of infrastructure investment.
01:05.7
That's a huge gap between Japan and China alone.
01:08.2
We're not even talking about the West.
01:09.6
We're not talking about European countries, among others, who also have significant investments in this part of the world.
01:14.1
We're not going to even talk about South Korea and increasingly emerging powers like, let's say, India or Saudi Arabia or Turkey
01:21.8
who are also pivoting to this part of the world along with post-Brexit Britain.
01:25.2
Now, if you look at Japan,
01:26.5
it has more than matched China in terms of new infrastructure investment commitments.
01:32.9
Now, but what makes Japan even more attractive to us in Southeast Asia is the fact that Japan is not seen as a Western country, right?
01:41.4
It's still a nation country, last time I checked.
01:44.1
And the way Japan approaches in relationship nila with countries in the region is also extremely subtle, no?
01:50.5
So you never see Japanese leaders, whether it was Shinzo Abe who visited Rodrigo Duterte in 2017.
01:56.5
The first foreign leader, major foreign leader to visit the Philippines under the former controversial president.
02:01.0
You don't see Fumio Kishida.
02:02.7
You don't see Suga.
02:03.7
You don't see Junichiro Koizumi.
02:05.9
I can go on and on.
02:06.6
You don't see Taro Azar.
02:07.8
You don't see any of these guys openly criticizing any ASEAN country on human rights and democracy issues.
02:14.4
Now, obviously, that's sometimes very questionable, especially we're dealing with horrible situation, what's happening in Myanmar, the coups that we saw in Thailand, among others.
02:24.5
But at the same time, there is a value to that, right?
02:26.5
You want still a major country, not named China, to maintain that kind of friendly relationship with whoever is in power in Southeast Asia to just create some sort of balance, right?
02:35.9
The other thing, of course, with Japan is that it also doesn't force any ASEAN country to take its side when it comes to controversial geopolitical issues.
02:42.7
So, for instance, you don't have Japan telling ASEAN countries to join yung anti-Russia sanctions, right?
02:48.9
And sanctions on Russia are a very sensitive issue, especially for countries like Vietnam.
02:53.1
Dahil ang Vietnam po ay nagre-relive on Russia.
02:56.5
For their most advanced weapon systems.
02:58.4
In fact, a lot of weapon systems in Vietnam are in Cyrillic.
03:01.9
A lot of their top security people were trained in Moscow, in Russia.
03:05.3
Some go back to all the way the Soviet Union era.
03:08.8
And countries like Indonesia, for instance, and Malaysia have also tried to get high-level equipment, fighter jets, among others, if not submarines, from Russia.
03:17.5
Even the Philippines under Duterte was considering choppers, if not submarines, also from Russia.
03:21.8
Now, all of those deals have more or less evaporated because of the fear of Western sanctions.
03:26.5
Or secondary Western sanctions under the so-called CAATSA.
03:30.1
So, Japan has joined sanctions against Russia, albeit reluctantly.
03:34.3
But it's not a country that is like, you know, pressuring other ASEAN countries to tow the American or Western line.
03:39.8
You don't have that.
03:41.0
You also have a situation whereby, you know, many ASEAN countries, let's say Malaysia and Indonesia especially, you know, they have their concerns with China.
03:47.6
They have their concerns with China's maritime assertiveness.
03:49.6
They have their concerns with China bullying in the region.
03:54.9
And not to mention China.
03:56.5
They're treating horribly its own Uyghur or Uyghur ethnic Muslim minority.
04:02.5
China doesn't really have a good record in terms of dealing minorities.
04:05.7
We can have a long conversation about that.
04:07.9
And some are even accusing China of engaging in ethnic cleansing or something even worse when it comes to Xinjiang, right?
04:14.4
Having said that, when it comes to Muslim-majority countries like Malaysia and Indonesia,
04:18.2
they are more angry with the United States over American policies and American military interventions in the Middle East.
04:25.3
And, of course, as you see...
04:26.5
As you saw with the statement by Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim,
04:29.1
Malaysia and many ASEAN countries are extremely dissatisfied, no?
04:33.4
Due to the position of the United States on the ongoing Gaza conflict.
04:37.8
So when you put all of those things together, in ASEAN, we're really desperate for a kind of a third force or third power.
04:44.2
India might get there, but it's not there yet.
04:46.9
South Korea, it's a middle power, but I don't think it can be anything, any kind of a credible alternative.
04:53.5
But if you look at Japan, at least economically, it's a big, big force.
04:56.3
It's a force already in this part of the world.
04:57.8
And, in fact, scholars like Benedict Anderson would argue that over the past century,
05:01.8
Japan has been central to industrialization and development of manufacturing in entire Asia,
05:06.7
especially in Southeast Asia since 1970s and 80s.
05:09.5
Now, having said all of those things,
05:11.8
Japan is also increasingly becoming an important defense partner for Southeast Asian countries,
05:16.3
especially Yuma, my territorial or maritime disputes, the West Philippine Sea.
05:21.5
So, just this year, Japan launched...
05:25.1
In fact, this was during...
05:26.3
Prime Minister Kishida's visit to Manila.
05:28.8
I met a cabinet member, a senior cabinet member in Prime Minister Kishida's office.
05:34.6
You know, we discussed Japan's new official security assistance.
05:38.8
So, Japan is not only developing its own military capabilities, co-developing six-generation fighters with UK and Italy.
05:45.7
It's not only developing its own new long-range missile systems.
05:50.6
So, the so-called Japanese self-defense forces are increasingly developing...
05:56.3
Force projection capabilities, right?
05:58.3
And more than that,
05:59.1
Japan is helping Asian countries and South Pacific countries to develop also their own maritime security capabilities.
06:05.7
So, the Philippines, Malaysia, they're all expected to get radar systems worth millions of dollars,
06:11.9
more or less for free because this is under the official security assistance program,
06:16.8
the new OSA launched by Japan.
06:19.4
But, I would argue that as far as Japan's policy in ASEAN is concerned,
06:24.6
if there's one country that's closest to Japan,
06:26.3
at least in geopolitical terms, it's the Philippines.
06:29.8
At pagdating sa Pilipinas, we're not only looking at official security assistance,
06:37.1
we're not only looking at getting more multi-role and coast guard vessels from Japan.
06:42.7
Let me tell you, alright?
06:44.4
Let me tell you, guys.
06:45.9
Kung hindi dahil sa Japan, I doubt that the Philippine coast guard would have been as capable as it is today.
06:53.3
I mean, we have an absolutely amazing coast guard.
06:56.3
Some would argue that the Philippine coast guard now is the most developed or that the biggest right now in entire Southeast Asia.
07:03.5
It's also the most feisty, fighting back and pushing back against China's bullying.
07:08.3
And a big part of that is Japanese provision of multi-role, increasingly big vessels to the Philippines.
07:15.8
And we're gonna get even more of those.
07:17.5
Now, we're buying these ones. They're not completely, they're not free.
07:21.5
They're based on good loans and grants, but they're not free.
07:24.6
But, but you see,
07:26.3
the thing that really makes Philippine-Japan relationship special is that Japan is increasingly looking at
07:33.3
also signing its own visiting forces agreement with the Philippines.
07:37.7
Pag natuloy yan, then expect nyo na hindi lang magkakaroon ng mga balikatan exercises,
07:43.1
katulad ng meron tayo with America.
07:45.3
Hindi lang magkakaroon ng karate exercises, other exercises na meron tayo, let's say with Australia, for instance.
07:50.1
But you're gonna have specialized defense, bilateral, military,
07:56.3
drills between Philippines and Japanese maritime self-defense forces, bilaterally.
08:00.0
And we already saw a glimpse of that last year when, for the first time since the end of Second World War,
08:06.3
Japan deployed its air force, you know, for overseas drills with the Philippine air force.
08:11.3
Back in 2018, for the first time again in post-war history,
08:14.9
Japan, under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe back then, also sent an armored unit vehicle,
08:22.6
armored vehicle unit, right, sorry, to the balikatan exercises.
08:25.7
So you're gonna see more.
08:26.3
You're gonna see more and more of that.
08:27.8
And pagdating sa Pilipinas at Japan, of course, a lot of this has to do,
08:32.3
a lot of this has to do with not only in West Philippines the disputes,
08:35.6
of course China is very, I'm sorry, Japan is very worried about what's happening in the West Philippines.
08:39.8
Because what happens in the West Philippines will inevitably also impact not only Japan's trade linkages in the region,
08:45.2
but also Japan's claims in East China Sea, Japan's situation in Okinawa.
08:50.1
But inevitably it has one thing or two to do also with the situation in Taiwan.
08:55.2
Because kung titignan niyo yung map, right, Taiwan is smack right in the middle of the Philippines and Japan.
09:03.4
And the southernmost islands of Japan or military bases of Japan to be even more specific,
09:09.1
and the northernmost military bases of Philippines, for instance in Mavulis,
09:13.8
they're almost equidistant to the Taiwanese shores, right?
09:17.7
So any future plans to avoid invasion of Taiwan will inevitably require a certain degree of coordination.
09:25.2
Between the Philippines and Japan.
09:28.7
And at the same time with the United States.
09:31.1
So in fact, ang tinitignan ngayon ng Japan is the development of what I call JAFUS,
09:34.5
Japan-Philippine-US Trilateral Alliance or some sort of trilateral security cooperation,
09:39.0
so that they can provide this kind of a triangular, triangular deterrence framework around Taiwan.
09:46.8
Paring China yung magdadalong isip bago sumugod sa Taiwan.
09:49.9
Because, you know, I don't know about some folks out there,
09:53.3
but, you know, the reason why Ukraine was in,
09:55.1
invaded by Russia, among others, is because Ukraine was weak.
09:58.5
Because Ukraine had no security alliance with any country.
10:01.8
In fact, Ukraine became a neutral country and gave up its nuclear weapons, right?
10:06.4
You check the, for instance, the Budapest Agreement after the end of Cold War.
10:11.1
So it was extremely vulnerable, that's why Russia moved in.
10:13.5
Had Ukraine joined NATO 10, 15, 20 years ago,
10:16.4
then it would have been as safe as many far smaller and more vulnerable Baltic countries.
10:21.4
I've been to some of them, you see Estonia, for instance,
10:24.4
which are extremely vulnerable.
10:25.1
They're really close to St. Petersburg.
10:27.1
They could be invaded by Russia anytime.
10:29.1
They're so small and vulnerable.
10:31.1
But Russia is not going to dare to attack them at this anytime soon
10:33.1
because they fall under NATO's collective security framework.
10:36.6
Now, Ukraine had no security alliance,
10:38.6
so there was a very weak deterrence to Putin.
10:41.6
So once Putin went cuckoo, right?
10:44.6
He just went for it.
10:46.1
But even, no matter how cuckoo Putin has turned throughout the pandemic period
10:50.1
with all this isolation and paranoia and KGB, whatever,
10:53.1
the reality is that,
10:55.1
you know, even Putin would have most likely been deterred from a full invasion of Ukraine
11:00.6
had Ukraine had anything close to what the Philippines or Japan have with the United States.
11:04.6
Now, Taiwan, technically speaking, is no longer a U.S. treaty ally
11:08.6
since the adoption of one-China policy
11:11.1
and the Carter administration's, you know, full, essentially, normalization of ties with China,
11:16.6
People's Republic of China, at the expense of the Republic of China in the 70s.
11:21.1
But the reality is that there's a de facto alliance between Philippines—
11:24.1
sorry, between the United States and Taiwan,
11:25.6
and there's a real alliance with both Philippines and Japan
11:28.6
just to the north and south of Taiwan.
11:30.6
So very important of Philippines to Japan.
11:32.6
Now, my hope is, and this is what I've been pushing for,
11:35.6
is that my hope is the Philippines is not just a military ally to Japan
11:38.6
or an emerging military ally.
11:40.6
I hope that the Philippines will also leverage this increasing geopolitical importance
11:45.1
to get the most possible economic investments,
11:48.6
high-quality economic investments.
11:50.6
I call it the Taiwan plus one strategy.
11:54.1
The other things in Taiwan plus one strategy that we want to achieve
11:57.1
is semiconductor investments in Taiwan.
11:59.6
Some of the semiconductor production moves to the Philippines.
12:03.1
Some of the productions that, you know, Japan was envisioning in Taiwan,
12:07.1
perhaps they could also move it to the Philippines.
12:08.6
The same for the United States.
12:10.1
Taiwan itself can push some of its investment to the Philippines.
12:12.6
Not to mention some of the investment pushes that the West and Japan have in Southeast Asia.
12:17.6
A lot of that is going to Thailand.
12:19.1
A lot of that is going to Vietnam.
12:20.6
More and more is going to Indonesia.
12:22.6
Not to mention Malaysia.
12:23.6
Malaysia has the Silicon Valley of Asia.
12:25.1
You want some of that to come into the Philippines
12:26.6
and more of that coming to the Philippines.
12:28.1
That's why you need a leader.
12:29.1
You need a president in the Philippines who can play,
12:31.6
you know, juggle both the geopolitical game and also the geoeconomic game.
12:35.1
So pag-usapan natin yan in the coming years.
12:37.1
So the stakes are very high.
12:38.6
We know that when Japan invests,
12:40.1
they really create jobs for locals.
12:42.1
High-quality jobs, well-paying jobs.
12:45.1
Anyone who's worked for a Japanese company,
12:47.1
a multinational Japanese company knows.
12:49.1
You know, you'd rather work for a Japanese company
12:51.1
than, I don't know, a Chinese company for that matter.
12:53.6
When Chinese come and invest in infrastructure of a country,
12:57.1
they're going to bring their own workers,
12:58.6
their own contractors,
13:00.1
their own technology,
13:01.1
their own engineers,
13:02.1
their own bulldozers.
13:03.1
There's going to be very minimal participation by the host country.
13:06.1
Even when they give so-called aid and all of that.
13:09.1
Sila sila rin na magbibuild yan.
13:11.1
So they're actually just creating jobs for themselves.
13:14.1
And they're giving experience and profile
13:16.1
to their own national champions and infrastructure companies.
13:19.1
That's not the case with Japan.
13:20.6
When Japan builds you highways and bridges,
13:23.6
it doesn't bring its own workers and all of that.
13:25.6
And more importantly also,
13:27.6
there's always some element of technology cooperation
13:29.6
and even technology transfer for that matter.
13:32.6
So these are the things that are very important to keep in mind
13:34.6
when you look at the Philippine-Japan relationship.
13:36.6
This is a very, very important relationship
13:38.6
that we'll be continuing to look at for the coming days.
13:43.6
So don't worry about that, guys.
13:49.6
Bardagulan sa loob ng Pilipinas.
13:53.6
Ako po. Ako po. Okay.
13:55.6
So may balitan nung isang araw na ang mga anchors ng SMNI ay ano na,
14:04.6
Pinalaya na pala na hindi na daw sila kailangan nandyan sa kongreso.
14:09.6
Ang hirap kasi magtiwala.
14:11.6
Dahil mga new stats hindi pala confirmed.
14:13.6
Pero tingnan natin dito kung...
14:15.6
So, I don't know.
